Hi all,
ITV Racing will cover action from Wincanton, Aintree, and Doncaster on Saturday. Inside today’s main piece, I’m focusing on Wincanton’s Badger Beers Day card.
At Wincanton, the feature races are the Grade 2 Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (2:23), the BetMGM Elite Hurdle (2:55), and the 64th Badger Beers Handicap Chase (3:30).
Aintree stages the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2:40), run over the famous National fences, while Doncaster hosts the final meeting of the 2025 Flat season. The highlight there is the Virgin Bet November Handicap (3:45). Unlike the jumps meetings, there’ll be no shortage of runners on Town Moor, with soft ground forecast.
ITV Racing are showing five races from Wincanton, three from Doncaster, and two from Aintree on Saturday afternoon.
Sadly, the rain didn’t really arrive at Wincanton, and you must feel for the course team. It’s their biggest meeting of the season, and ITV have given it top billing, but the dry autumn has hit field sizes hard. Even the Badger Beers Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap), worth £80,000, has attracted just seven runners.
It’s a different story at Aintree, where easier ground has helped the William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2:40) draw a full field of 17 – the strongest jumps race on Saturday. I previewed that race in Thursday’s column; for those who missed it, you can find it here
November Handicap Draw Bias
To all intents and purposes, the British Flat season ended on Champions Day at Ascot, but it officially signs off at Doncaster. It’s a competitive eight-race card, with 126 runners – more than Aintree and Wincanton combined.
You wouldn’t expect a 1m4f handicap at Doncaster to be influenced by the draw, but the November Handicap has been. When you break the results down by draw segment, there’s a clear pattern.
Digging deeper, stalls 1 to 7 have struggled to make an impact with 0 winners from 106 runners – ExpWins = 5.37.
Here are the horses drawn in that first quarter — including three well-fancied runners: Castle Cove, Hopewell Rock, and Atherstone Warrior. Each will be looking to defy the stats.
All three featured prominently on my early shortlist, particularly Atherstone Warrior, who looks capable of improving again stepping up to 1m4f. Even so, that low-draw record does temper confidence a little. Still, if you fancy one of them, don’t be put off – big race trends are regularly broken.
I wasn’t expecting it, but my main betting focus will be Doncaster, with relatively few bets at Wincanton and Aintree on Saturday.
Wincanton: Nicholls After the Beer Money
Firstly, I can’t remember when I didn’t have a bet in the Badger Beers Handicap Chase (3:30), but I won’t be having one this year.
Threeunderthrufive caught my eye earlier in the week. He was runner-up in the race in 2023 and, although 5lb higher now, can still race off his last winning mark. He’ll be fit enough to strike on his return if he’s on a going day. Trainer Paul Nicholls is seeking his twelfth win in the race.
Art Of Diplomacy has been in fine form this summer, winning five times and it should have been six as he looked to have the race won when falling at the last in a novice chase at Chepstow. If that fall hasn’t dented his confidence, he has strong claims on this quicker ground.
Threeunderthrufive is the class act here and could probably pick up his rivals and carry them, but he’s not the most consistent. He’s the token selection, though I won’t be backing him.
Porter In The Park Out to Go One Better
Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner of the BetMGM Paul & Richard Barber Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle (1:45) twice since 2018 and runs two again this year – Jubilee Alpha and Jena d'Oudairies.
Jubilee Alpha carries top weight after her win in a Mares’ Listed Novices’ Hurdle (2m4½f) at Cheltenham in April. The step up in trip and good ground suited her that day, and she has strong claims on handicap debut. Jena d'Oudairies isn’t discounted either. She won a novice hurdle on good ground at Chepstow in March before her jumping let her down later in the season. If that side of her game has improved, she’s on a fair mark and remains open to progress.
Bethpage ended the spring in fine form, with figures of 1221. She returns 6lb higher than when winning over further at Stratford in May, a career-best effort. On decent ground, she can go close again. Her trainer won this race in 2019. Stablemate Porter In The Park also must be considered. She has race fitness on her side after finishing third of seven at Ludlow last month. A good-ground mare who was runner-up in last year’s race, she’ll be a big player if this turns into a stamina test.
As ever I’ll be back on Monday to look back on Saturday’s action.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John