Hi all,
Inside today’s long main piece I continue my review of the Weekend’s big race action. Plus, there’s a look at two races on this afternoon’s Market Rasen card.
Lack of Competition Isn't Good for the Health of the Sport
Now I like Willie Mullins and he’s a brilliant trainer of a horse. In fact, you could argue the man is a genius. However, he does get the best horses to train from some of the wealthiest owners in the NH game. Well, his stranglehold on Irish jumps racing is now complete and I don’t see it ending anytime soon.
Mullins can’t be blamed for receiving talented horses from his wealthy owners, but festival meant to showcase the best of Irish racing with only 2 runners for a novice chase, offering €117k to the winner, both horses saddled by the same trainer, isn’t a good look for the sport.
Most racegoers and punters are unlikely to be satisfied with just two good horses competing against each other. They want a competitive race, a tight finish, and the chance to back a winner at decent odds.
The essence of sports is competition, and if a single trainer dominates all the major races, it will only undermine the excitement and appeal for new audiences. The latter being essential if the sport is to have any sort of future.
There are just too many Grade 1 jump races and there aren’t the horses to run in them and in the Ireland, they are in the hands of one trainer.
There are several Group 1 handicaps on the Flat in Australia. Why can’t we have Grade 1 jump handicaps? Switch such races to conditional handicaps and have the likes of State Man give weight away to rivals and you’ll surely see plenty take him on. It will also, crucially, be more competitive than seeing him beat three rivals at 2/5.
Dublin Racing Festival – Sunday
Willie Mullins had the odds-on favourite for all four of Sunday’s Grade 1’s at Leopardstown. Three of them won but one bombed.
It was a virtual toss-up between Ballyburn or State Man produced the most impressive performance on Sunday. In the end I settled on the former.
Ballyburn Up
Low sun intervened in the Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle with the final hurdle being omitted. This meant a very long run in from the usual second last.
Ballyburn always up with pace, took it after two out and powered clear of his rivals in some style to win by seven lengths. It was a smart performance by the winner who hit the line strongly over two miles.
The next few weeks expect to see a ‘Willie’ won’t he go for the Supreme or Baring Bingham (formerly Ballymore) Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s a slightly shorter priced favourite for the Supreme than the Baring Bingham. I think it will be the longer Baring Bingham race but expect plenty of noise before Willie Mullins makes his final decision before final declarations.
Runner-up Slade Steel is heading for the Baring Bingham. He ran well to get within 7 lengths of the winner. Traveling through the race like a top-class novice hurdler he didn’t have Ballyburn’s change of gear. The 2m 5f of the Baring Bingham should really suit the 6-year-old on pedigree.
State Man
State Man gained back-to-back Irish Champion Hurdles with a strong performance which looked a career best. He got a nice tow into the race from stablemate Impaire Et Passe which suited. He breezed past the leader on the final turn to pull nicely clear of his rivals and win by 5 ½ lengths from a staying on Bob Olinger.
Can he beat Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle?
If a fully fit Constitution Hill turns up, then the answer is no but I do expect State Man to get closer than last year.
There’s plenty of noise that Constitution Hill isn’t having the best of preparations for next month's race. If those more negative rumours are correct, then the 3/1 available about State Man for the Champion Hurdle could be value.
El Fabiolo
El Fabiolo made it a perfect 6-6 over fences when comfortably landing the Dublin Chase. His march towards the Champion Chase glory continues. We didn’t learn anything new from his 8 ½ length success over stablemate Dinoblue.
He was once again impervious in victory but less than fluent jumping was once more in evidence. There is no doubt he’s got a big engine, and he would be some horse if he was a good jumper.
It’s hard to see him not winning the Champion Chase, indeed he looks a near certainty. However, his rivals will be aware he will make one mistake which will prove decisive in a race. It’s just a case of when that happens.
Gaelic Warrior’s Not Going the Right Way
It was a Gaelic Warrior, Fact To File match in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase. Gaelic Warrior’s jumping out to right was in evidence once more and he never looked happy after a mistake four out. He was a beaten horse two out and even unseated his rider at the last. That left Fact To File to come home alone.
Willie Mullins now had just five weeks to get Gaelic Warrior right. He ran no sort of race and wouldn’t have won even if he was going right-handed. Something was surely amiss here. There must a be a good chance that connections will swerve Cheltenham and train him for Punchestown. I still don’t see him winning a Grade 1 chase going left-handed.
Fact To File remains a nice chasing prospect who is an economical jumper of a fence but we didn’t learn much more about him here. That didn’t stop the bookies cutting him into favouritism for the Turners' Novice Chase at the Festival.
And finally…
I can’t end my weekend look back without a mention of Musselburgh’s Scottish Cheltenham Trial’s Weekend. Since 2014 running at Musselburgh has hardly been a guide for predicting future winners at the Cheltenham Festival. Just one winner at the Cheltenham Festival had run at Musselburgh on his previous start.
Digging into Horseracebase.
I can’t think of a worse racecourse to have Cheltenham Trials. Firstly, it’s the other way round to Cheltenham and it’s also a sharp track. If you had a Cheltenham horse you wouldn’t use Musselburgh as a prep for the Festival.
Fair play to Musselburgh though they put up some good prize money and were rewarded with decent field sizes. Just don’t call it a Cheltenham Trials Weekend.
The performance of the weekend at Musselburgh was delivered by Inis Oirr in winning Saturday’s Edinburgh National. The step up to an extended 3m 7f and the application of the first visor had the desired effect. He will get a hike in the weights from the handicapper for this 21-length success but he’s lightly raced and there should be more to come from the 7-year-old. However, he’s from a yard that know how to train long distance chasers and he could emulate Mighty Thunder who won this before going onto Scottish Grand National success.
Dublin Racing Festival: Future Winners
Here are two for the tracker from the Dublin Racing Festival. Plus, there’s several others worth keeping an eye on.
Daddy Long Legs – Willie Mullins
Daddy Long Legs finished a well beaten 27 ½ length 6th of 10 in Sunday’s Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle. He’s not a Grade 1 novice hurdler but he shaped with plenty of promise. Not suited to testing going but when he gets back on better ground, can do win a race or two most likely in handicap company. He could also win races back on the level this year.
Black Bamboo – John Joseph Murphy
Black Bamboo in the first-time hood, was ridden to get the trip in Saturday’s Listed Timeless Sash Windows Handicap Hurdle (3m). In a modestly run race being in the rear wasn’t the place to be. He was making steady headway when short of room at the last but was doing his best work at the run in finishing a 7 ¾ length 6th of 22. There’s a handicap hurdle to be won with the 7-year-old at 2m 6f+.
The third home, Yeats Star was also a bit short of room at the last and would have gone close with a better passage. He seemed well suited by the step up in trip and should remain competitive in staying handicap hurdles.
Leopardstown's Handicap Hurdle: Carnage and Potential Eyecatchers
The final handicap hurdle (2m) on Sunday’s Leopardstown card is a race worth a second look. Lord Erskine gained a well deserved big handicap hurdle success at the age of 11. However, there was several others who caught the eye.
Third home Zenta was returning from a short break. A Grade 1 winning juvenile hurdler at Aintree last spring and third in the Triumph Hurdle she could be a contender for races like the County Hurdle at the Festival.
There was carnage at the second last. Recent C&D winner Ataboycharlie fell when still asked for his effort and wouldn’t have been far away if standing up. Bialystok was still travelling well when bought down two out and remains in form. Conyers Hill was making his effort when badly hampered in the melee two out. He’s another worth keeping an eye on.
Tuesday Preview
The Listed Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race at Market Rasen (4:05) is Tuesday’s standout race. There’s also an interesting enough handicap chase thirty minutes early.
Market Rasen
4:05 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Alan Swinbank Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) – 2m ½ f
Avakate, a winner of an Irish bumper for his previous trainer looked a much improved when winning a Listed Mares’ Bumper at Doncaster on stable debut for Alan King in December. Her Doncaster success means she’s giving weight to all her eight rivals. That’s going to be no easy task against potential improvers.
Park Princess knew her job and was game in winning a heavy ground Bumper at Newbury on racecourse debut in December. On RPR’s that’s the best form on offer and she looks a worthy favourite albeit it will be on different ground today.
Audacious Annie also won a Bumper on racecourse debut 69 days ago. Needs to have improved plenty since her Wetherby win but it's possible she will.
3:35 – trustatrader.com Handicap Chase (Class 4) – 3m
I don’t normally bother to look at Class 4 handicaps these days. But this is an interesting enough nine runner contest which you but make cases for at least five of them.
Mixedwave gained a third win over fences when winning at Huntingdon 25 days ago. He was first past the post over C&D in November so right-handed, sharp tracks suit him. A 6lb rise demands a bit more improvement from the 7-year-old but it could be forthcoming.
Better ground will suit the veteran Jimmy The Digger who drops in class here and is on a handy mark if bouncing back to form.
There would have been a time when I would have been all over a Tom George runner in a handicap chase. He saddles Inflexible who posted a career best over fences when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 at Hereford 33 days ago. Up 3lb but capable of going close once more.
Scene One made it 2-3 over fences when winning here (2m 3f) 28 days ago. The first time cheekpieces and better ground was a likely catalyst for a return to winning ways. A 5lb rise could have been worse and if he stays 3m can win again.
Easy Bucks made all to win on stable debut for ‘Shark’ Hanlon at Punchestown last month. Quickly back with previous trainer Peter Bowen. He’s 16lb higher than last time but not one to discount if in the same form as last time.
Verdict: Jimmy The Digger is temptingly handicapped but C&D winner Mixed Wave is the more solid option.
Tuesday Selection:
I’m tempted by Park Princess in the Listed bumper. I had her at 7/4 on my tissue but she’s 5/2 with bet365 and a generally available 9/4. Maybe it’s the prospect of better ground that means she ‘s bigger odds than she should be.
Market Rasen
3:35 – Park Princess – 9/4.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John
Hi John Arkle ran in handicaps so did fyingbolt so did Dessie and punters loved it this is beyond a joke now were are we gonna be 5 yrs from now midweek racing is a joke have you any suggestions to improve midweek racing we must have done something really wrong to deserve this dross keep smiling LARRY
Black Bamboo a def eyecatcher!
The ommitted hurdle for State Man and co and the fence for El Fab, were both taken out mid race on the second circuit in each race!
WTF is going on?!
The jockeys didn’t know until they turned in and obviously, rides would have been affected. Betting in running became a joke as punters didn’t have a didgery doo. So what, Lorcan Wyer was guessing that the sun would come out on the second curcuit, when it was behind clouds on the first?! Where does it all end? Pathetic rubbish! They can’t do that in France as Hurdles and Fences stretch from one side of the track to the other. When have we ever heard that low sun has caused chaos in French racing?! It’s all total bol….s!
As a side note..Kevin Blake is of the opinion that Marine Nationale is in deep doo doo and has concerns for his racing career. Not due to any injury, but rather something in his breeding which sounds like there may be a hereditry breathing issue. If the horse runs on soft ground again, he fears for it’s health and even on good ground, he appears to think the horse could be in trouble.
No evidence to back this up as yet of course; however, if he sees an issue, it’s highly likely that there is one.
Hi john .Great idea in theory for grade 1 handicaps but unless they put in a limit for the number of entries per yard then i can see a scenario where there would be ten from Mullins and 10 from Elliot and nobody gets a look in .as apart from De Bromhead and a scattering of horses elsewhere who has horses rated high enough to compete?
Same on the flat the O’Brien clan versus the rest. Apart from J.P. who else sends horses to other yards?