Hi all,
In today's main piece, I delve into the upcoming weekend's big racing, and there’s plenty of it. Plus, there's a selection for today's Veterans Chase at Haydock.
BOG OFF
The best odds guaranteed(BOG) the day before racing has finally come to an end. It was great while it lasted. Now the best we have on offer are the following bookmakers who go BOG at 8am on the day of racing:
Bet365
Coral
Betfred
Boylesports
Ladbrokes.
I have found that if you fancy one the night before with Coral & Ladbrokes the price is usually still available in the morning, but you have to be ready to place your bets at 8am.
For many years, my approach to betting has involved placing a significant portion of my bets in the afternoon or evening before racing. The unpredictability of the early betting markets which I mentioned last week has meant that BOG has been a very useful part of my armoury.
I’m convinced most bookmakers are no longer interested in horse racing business and only interested in it as gateway towards their casino products.
We have had plenty of publicity about affordability checks and problem gamblers, but I have yet to see the figures for percentage of problem gamblers from horse racing compared to the same firms Casino customers.
The big corporations of course have all this data at their fingertips so it's instructive that they are withholding it.
Account Dispute Unveils Troubling Trend:
On a distinct yet closely related note, I currently find myself embroiled in a dispute with a prominent bookmaker. Six weeks ago, my account was abruptly closed, leaving £100 in limbo. Regrettably, I've encountered significant hurdles in accessing both the account and the remaining funds. Despite multiple attempts, I have received no response from the bookmaker regarding the closure, the required steps for reactivation, or the release of the remaining funds.
The passage of about a month has seen several unanswered emails, further exacerbating the communication breakdown. If there is no resolution or communication from the bookmaker by the end of the year, I intend to escalate the matter to the Independent Betting Adjudication Service (IBAS). As of now, I have refrained from disclosing the specific bookmaker involved, but I want to emphasize that if the issue persists, I will not hesitate to reveal their identity when pursuing the matter through IBAS.
Suffice to say it’s a bookmaker I don’t mention in my columns when putting up prices.
It is disconcerting to note a rising trend of freezing or suspending accounts, particularly to impede withdrawal requests. The Racing Post, despite presumably being aware of the issue, has chosen not to address it. The reasons for this apparent silence are quite discernible.
Anticipating the Weekend Races
The weekend’s action kicks off on Friday, with exciting Stay Away Fay a possible runner at Sandown's two-day Tingle Creek meeting in the Grade 2 Esher Novices' Chase (2:25). Additionally, the Winter Novices' Hurdle (1:50) promises another Grade 2 showdown.
On Saturday, the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (3.00) takes centre stage, with Jonbon a short- priced ante post favourite. The card includes two more Grade 1 events: the Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1:50) and the rescheduled Fighting Fifth Hurdle (1:15), where Shishkin might face off against stablemate Constitution Hill, although the latter's participation remains uncertain.
Aintree's focus centres on the Becher Handicap Chase (2.05) over the National fences, while Chepstow hosts Welsh National Trial Day.
ITV Racing are covering nine races, five from Sandown and four from Aintree, in a bumper programme.
The excitement extends into Sunday, with Huntingdon's most valuable day of the year featuring the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase (1:55). Meanwhile, Kelso also race with the Borders National (12:35) the highlight of a seven race card. Bookmakers have released the odds for Saturday's ITV races, and like last week, I'm dedicating today's column to identifying any early value bets. Today my is eye on Sandown for Tingle Creek Day.
Sandown Tingle Creek Meeting: Anticipation Builds for Sandown Showdowns
Before I look at any value bets. Here’s some trainer stats for the meeting since 2017.
Tingle Trainers:
Paul Nicholls is the winning most trainer but there are several others whose runners are also worth noting.
All ten of the Nicholls winners had won one of their last three starts – 10 winners from 32 runners +32.26 16 placed 50%. I have no doubt you ‘slice n dice’ those figures further and tighten them up but I don’t think you need to go further.
Gary Moore likes to have winners here. You can’t back his runners blind otherwise you’re likely to lose money. The market has been a good mark for the Moore runners. All seven of his winners were returned 6/1 & under – 7 winners from 16 runners 44% +10.54, 9 placed 56%. By the way he’s – 6 winners from 9 runners 67% +11.54 with his hurdlers.
Alan King, Evan Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Dr Richard Newland and Tom Lacey also have excellent strike rates albeit from a smaller number of runners. I will be keeping an eye any runners this group of trainers have at Sandown on Friday and Saturday
1:50 – Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase (Grade 1) – 1m 7 ½ f
JPR One, despite an unfortunate unseating of the rider in a Cheltenham Grade 2 novice chase, emerges as the rightful ante post favourite with the bookmakers.
Trainer Jamie Snowden, fresh off last Saturday's Coral Cup victory with Datsalrightgino, presents Colonel Harry as a strong contender. Colonel Harry, a successful novice hurdler last season, showcased his potential when winning on chase debut at Chepstow last month. A preference for softer ground is anticipated and the odds of 7/2 offered by bet365 are more than fair.
3:00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) – 1m 7 ½ f
Jonbon, made an impressive return to action in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham last month and is rightly a short-priced favourite for the Sandown feature. He’s 2-2 over the course and distance, including a victory in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at this meeting last year. Not a horse I took a liking to last season, but I do after his Cheltenham performance.
Other contenders, such as Edwardstone and Captain Guinness, seem to be vying for second place.
Edwardstone won last year’s race and whist he probably needed the run when runner-up in the Shloer Chase. He does look held by Jonbon and he also has an entry in Sunday’s Peterborough Chase so may go their instead.
I know Tom Segal was very impressed with Captain Guinness after he won at Navan on his seasonal return three weeks ago. However, he won that Navan race 12 months ago and didn’t really follow up in Grade 1 company afterwards. Looks held by Jonbon on their running over C&D in April.
Boothill, a solid performer last year, including an 8 length runner-up to Jonbon in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase. He’s shown improvement this season and offers fair each-way value at 16/1 with Bet365 & Paddy Power. I have him 10/1 on my tissue although I don’t think he want the ground to get too testing.
Haddex Des Obeaux, despite a fall at the last in his seasonal return at Cheltenham, remains a compelling prospect for Graded success. A bold jumping novice last season he remains capable of an even better performance. The prospect of rain and a further easing of the ground won’t faze him either. Priced at 20/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes, he’s well-positioned to grab one of the places.
3:35 – Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 4 ½ f
Fontaine Collonges won first time up last year and in 2020 so first time up maybe the time to catch him. Only 1lb above his last winning mark and at his best in the mud he sure to be popular and is high on my race shortlist but the 4/1 available makes no appeal value wise at this early stage.
A cursory glance at the early betting highlights three potentially overpriced contenders in Moroder, Certainly Red, and Planned Paradise.
Moroder's 2 ½ length 2nd of 16 to Kitty's Light in bet365 Gold Cup over C&D at the end of last season is good form. The 14/1 with Bet365 is enticing but he did make a less than encouraging seasonal return at Wincanton (said to have bled).
Certainly Red only 7th in the Bet365 Gold Cup, had looked progressive handicap chaser prior to that end of season run. He raced like the run was needed when an 18 ½ length 4th of 11 in the Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton and warrants consideration at the 11/1 available with Bet365 but a further deterioration of the ground could see the 9-year-old a non-runner.
Planned Paradise would be having his third start for Christian Williams if he was to line-up for the race. He remains with potential racing beyond 3m 2f. On his two starts beyond the distance he finished placed including when a 4 length 2nd of 11 in last year’s race (first time cheekpieces). He’s now 7lb lower than 12 months ago and is on a good mark when everything clicks. Could we see the cheekpieces return for the first time this season? The 20/1 that was available on Monday has gone and he’s now a best priced 12/1 with Paddy Power which is now a minimum acceptable price.
Ante Post Advice: Planned Paradise – 12/1 @ Paddy Power.
In tomorrow’s column I will be looking Saturday’s Aintree card with a focus on the Becher Chase.
Wednesday Preview
Kempton Hosts a good all-weather card this evening with the Listed Hyde Stakes and the Unibet London Stayers Series (Final) Handicap being the highlights. Haydock saves its best until last.
For a Wednesday the action is decent and I’m likely to have a few bets. Today’s selection is from Haydock.
Haydock
The Veterans Series Handicap Chase may have only attracted six runners but their all old favourites.
3:30 – Good Boy Bobby is seeking the hat trick after win in Veterans chases at Chepstow & Sandown. He’s 4lb higher here but remains on a competitive mark and should go close.
Sam Brown ran poorly on his seasonal return at Wincanton, but the blinkers are back on and he’s the class horse of the race if bouncing back to his best.
Nestor Park can usually be relied upon to run his race but he’s 1 from 16 over fences which is off-putting.
Galloping Bear has a much better strike rate 3 from 7 over fences which would have been four, but he was disqualified after winning the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase here in February 2022. Best run last season came when a 2 ½ length 2nd of 13 to Kitty’s Light in the Eider Chase at Newcastle. The 10-year-old stays much further than 3m 1 ½ f but the ground is heavy so it could turn into a real stamina test. I’m hoping this race isn’t a prep for something else. It it isn't, I think he’s got a good chance.
Galloping Bear – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John