Good morning all,
And I thought I was having a bad York, but Frankie yesterday made me feel a whole lot better. There's always someone worse off than you, don't forget 😉
Ebor Day then and I've done my best to try and pick the bones out of what looks a very difficult day's punting.
I'll be at Newmarket again (very quiet yesterday) and although a bit overcast at present, it should brighten up later.
Best of luck if you're playing today.Â
1.55 – Strensall Stakes (1m1f)
Seven runners but not one pacemaker in the field – in fact, you’d go so far as to say all 7 are hold-up horses – and as such this makes next to no appeal for a bet, with every chance of it being falsely run.
I wonder whether Make Time might try and nick this from the front with a stop-start pace. He does look like he’s ready for another furlong after a couple of good efforts over a mile – his Sandown win over two horses that had both won their previous starts does look a very good piece of form – and after a poor start to the season David Menusier is having a better time of it lately. He’d be nothing more than a token selection but in truth, a race best left alone for a bet.
2.25 – Melrose Handicap (1m6f)
A few pacemakers in the field and I’m looking for something to come from off the pace.
Glenys The Menace did us a good turn at Ascot a fortnight ago and if she gets this extra 2f, she’ll have her chance. That is, of course, a question but as I said a couple of weeks ago, she’s improving quickly – just the sort you want at this time of the year – and I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule her out.
One that’s looking like he needs further already is Northwest Frontier, and given he blew a couple of the turns at Thirsk last time out he did awfully well to only be beaten a short head. This long straight should suit him and he gives the impression of loads more to come. I quite like his chances and he’d be my first choice.
3.00 – Gimcrack Stakes (6f)
Not an easy race to solve. (2-y-o races never are to me!). Nebo has the form in the book but the worry that 6f simply isn’t far enough is still a concern to me. On saying that, if he runs to the same level that he did over 6f at Goodwood last time he must be in the firing line, and this track is likely to suit him better. He’d probably be top of my list, but only just.
If the ground keeps drying up then Headway could get involved. Another stride or two and he’d have got there in the Coventry and I can forgive him a below-par effort on softer ground at Goodwood last time. If he can bounce back on quicker than he must have a chance.
Sands Of Mali beat Eirene a whopping 3½l at Nottingham last time and that form looks a whole lot better now, but it was on soft ground and he needs to show he’ll be happier on what may well be good ground by tomorrow,
3.35 – Tote Ebor (1m 6f)
Plenty of front runners, including our old friend Lord Yeats, but the drying ground and the fact there’s other pacemakers in the race are enough to put me off him today. Still a nice prize to be won this autumn with him, though.
The case for Magic Circle is a blindingly obvious one after his win here on Wednesday and he only gets a 4lb penalty for that. Having watched the race, I think he wins with a bit in hand and he will get this run to suit, so as long as he’s over those exertions he should be thereabouts.
But this drying ground sways me towards Top Tug as the selection. He ran a cracker first time up against Frontiersman at Newmarket (pair clear) and the showed this trip holds no terrors when winning with plenty in hand at Goodwood next time. He lost little in defeat in the Duke Of Edinburgh stakes at Royal Ascot latest, the step back up in trip will suit and he’s top of my shortlist for this.
I don’t think anyone would begrudge Scarlet Dragon winning after a series of consistently good efforts in top-class handicaps this season and if running his race, should be taking some prizemoney home.
In truth, not much makes appeal of the 20-1 plus longshots and I think I will play this as a win bet Top Tug and a saver Scarlet Dragon.
Elsewhere, it’s worth pointing out Dotties Dilemma has another go at Cartmel (4.00) switching to fences today. He’s definitely worth a look in a weak event, as he’s already a point-to-point winner and the change of headgear might just work the oracle.
Today’s selection – Top Tug 3.35 York
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.