Epsom: Carnivals and Eyecatchers

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m completing my look back at the Epsom Derby Festival.

Forget Carnivals and Move the Derby Back to Wednesday

We had a brilliant winner in the Derby and a decent winner in the Oaks this year. The sport needed a City Of Troy success, and we got it.

The Derby Day attendance didn't seem much higher than last year. It might sound repetitive, but the race should return to its old Wednesday slot. This would allow it to have its own day in the spotlight, rather than competing with other major sporting events, like this year's Champions League Final.

When the switch was made in the 1990s, the idea was that more people would be able to watch it. However, let's be frank—it hasn't had the desired effect.

Recently, there's been talk about creating an Epsom carnival like the Australian’s do. My advice? Don’t bother. The quality of the equine population isn’t sufficient for a week or even four days of racing just a few weeks before Royal Ascot. I remember when the meeting was held over four days, and it wasn’t very good.

There’s little chance the Derby will return to a Wednesday. However, it’s a far better idea than an Epsom Carnival unless of course it involves moving the Derby back to Wednesday.

Lastly, whose bright idea was it to hold the Derby Draw on Epsom High Street with ping pong balls and felt-tip numbers? It was embarrassing for the sport's biggest race, especially since the locals showed no interest in the event.

Epsom Derby Festival Eyecatchers

Several horses caught the eye at the Epsom Derby meeting. Here are some noteworthy performances:

Derry Lad made a notable impression with his 1 ¼ length third-place finish out of 13 to Bolster on Friday. Despite a slow start and a less-than-ideal ride from Hayley Turner, Derry Lad did well from off the pace, especially on a day when few horses managed to come from behind. Expect him to win a race in the coming weeks.

Chipstead – Roger Teal

Chipstead found the sharp 5f in the Epsom Dash too quick, finishing 6th out of 14. His optimal distance seems to be around 5 ½ f. He’s down to a winning mark and prefers good or quicker ground. Ideal targets could include a 5 ½ f handicap at York’s Ebor Festival or the Portland Handicap at Doncaster, a race he was first past the post in 2022.

Race to Focus On

Saturday’s concluding 6f handicap, won by Misty Grey, had several noteworthy performances and should provide plenty of future winners.

Mister Wagyu: Runner-up and well-handicapped for a 6f handicap, with June and July being his peak months.

Apollo One: Consistent performer, likely to be competitive once more in the Wokingham Handicap and Goodwood Stewards Cup. He deserves to have his day in the sun.

Strike Red: Working back to form, ideally suited for a stiff 6f and needs some ease in the ground. Perfect for the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot if conditions suit.

Eminency: Improved from his seasonal debut at Ascot, finishing 6th. Needs a stiffer 6f and could be worth trying at 7f. Well-treated based on last season’s form.

Badri: Last year’s winner, finished his race off well despite being poorly positioned. Can win again over a stiff 5f or easy 6f.

Executive Decision – Jamie Osborne:

Executive Decision shaped with promise in finishing 4^th. Twice a winner last Summer she’s down to her last winning mark and prefers good to soft ground. Likely to be placed advantageously over 6f in the coming weeks.

Epsom Derby Festival Verdict

The Epsom Derby Festival offered a competitive couple of days of racing, with good winners in both the Derby and the Oaks. The handicaps featured big fields and produced exciting races.

Punting Review

On the punting front, I had only one winner, but it was a 16/1 shot, so a profit was banked over the two days. Here’s a rundown of how some of my selections fared:

Hamish (2nd)

Al Mubhir (3rd)

Derry Lad (3rd)

Marlay Park (4th)

Looking For Lynda (3rd)

Ziggy (2nd)

Apollo One (3rd)

All ran well in their respective races, so I can't complain. However, there’s one that got away which would have significantly boosted the returns and made the festival even more profitable. More on that in the next segment.

Maximize Your Betting Strategy: Back Multiple Horses

Suggesting to some punters that they back two or even three horses in a race often elicits looks of horror.  However, by doing so, they would be reducing the odds against themselves. I know because I have had former subscribers to my Victor Value service complain why I can’t I just go for one in a race.

Let me elaborate.

Profit must be taken where you see it, and once you understand that in almost every race there are only a few horses with genuine credentials for winning, you will begin to push the odds in your favour.

Every day, there are races where there are two, three or at most four horses who have a real chance of winning, while the rest are merely making up the numbers. Once you learn to narrow a race down to its true contenders, you’re able to play the bookmaker at their own game.

The bookmaker ensures a profit by making his book over-round, but he is at a disadvantage because he must consider the entire field that punters support. Once you master the art of identifying the two or three horses most likely to win, you can make your own book within the market and make a profit regardless of which one wins. It really is as simple as that.

When you back a single horse, the bookie has the rest running for it, and each additional horse you back reduce the odds against yourself.

I made a big mistake on Saturday. Instead of going for two in the 3-year-old Dash I went for just one leaving out the winner.

This is what I wrote to Victor Value subscribers on Friday afternoon.

“Due For Luck’s claims are clear to see and he’s a worthy favourite for me. I can see Blue Storm going close, but I have settled on just the one selection Mashadi”.

Thankfully I didn’t make the same mistake in the Dash itself.

“I’m loathed to leave out top weight Clarendon House who might well be a Group 1 sprinter and will be suited by any drying ground. However, I can’t justify three selections in the race so in the end I have opted for Dream Composer and Looking For Lynda”.

I won’t be making the same mistake again so if you’re a Victor Value subscriber expect plenty of big races to have multiple selections in the coming weeks.

I’ll no doubt come back to this important topic in the coming weeks. 

Tuesday Racing

Not much to get excited about on Tuesday although I have got one of interest at Leicester this afternoon.

Leicester

Source: Racing Post.

4:03 – The Sir Michael Stoute trained Reaching High is a worthy favourite after his improved runner-up effort on handicap debut at Chelmsford last month. He’s top on my ratings after his Chelmsford run but his 10/11 odds are far too short. From a value perspective I would much rather be with User Amistoso. User Amistoso also put in a much-improved performance last time when a length 3^rd of 9 a Chester 26 days ago. He’s been nudged up 3lb but can win a race off his present mark. He’s also 17/2 with William Hill which is just too big and makes him worth a play.

User Amistoso – 17/2 @ William Hill & Sky Bet.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John