Epsom’s April Meeting

Hi all,

In today's main piece, I'll be delving into last week's Craven Meeting, along with adding three future winners to the tracker. Plus, I'm previewing Epsom's April Meeting.

I apologize in advance for the longer article today, but I can't help but indulge in discussing flat racing. Sorry jumps fans, but for me, this is what real horse racing is all about.

The flat season is gaining momentum, we’ve had the first classic trials at Newmarket and Newbury and finally I’m starting to add flat eyecatchers to my tracker.  Now all we need is some dry weather. With a stupidly high-water table, we could probably do with a couple of weeks of dry weather.

After some glorious spring sunshine on Sunday. The weather took a turn for the worse. There was heavy overnight rain on Sunday night, but Pontefract survived a morning inspection. I must confess I took one look outside the window and decided that Pontefract wasn’t going to receive my £22. Hopefully the weather will be better for its next fixture.

Before delving into today's main discussion, I'd like to highlight an important point regarding Saturday's racing at Newbury. Despite the official going description stating, “good to soft, good in places,” the times indicate that the ground was closer to “good to firm”. This discrepancy is significant when analyzing the form from Saturday's races and should be taken into consideration.

The new Clerk of the Course appears to have misjudged the going yet again, following an erroneous assessment during on Betfair Hurdle Day. This mistake underscores the importance of accurately assessing ground conditions, especially in high-profile races like those at Newbury on Saturday.

Craven Meeting Review:

The Craven Meeting at Newmarket saw relatively quick ground, a welcome change after months of seemingly endless rain. This highlights how quickly conditions can improve with a few dry days. The combination of drying ground and a tailwind on the Rowley Mile favoured frontrunners, making it crucial to keep up with the pace. With those at the head of affairs being hard to peg back it should pay to look for horses who came from off the pace.

Before I delve into the tracker horses from the meeting, let's discuss the two Classic Trials: the Nell Gwyn Stakes and Craven Stakes.

Classic Trials Recap: Pretty Crystal Upsets in Nell Gwyn Stakes, Haatem Prevails in Craven Stakes

Richard Fahey's Pretty Crystal (18/1) caused an upset in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes, defeating odds-on favourite Dance Sequence. The winner a consistent juvenile produced a considerable chunk of improvement to win on her seasonal reappearance to hold off the favourite.

Dance Sequence had won the Group 3 Oh So Sharp over C&D last autumn and came into Wednesday’s race second favourite for the 1,000 Guineas. She looked like she was coming to win her race 1f out, but she wobbled in the dip and couldn’t get past a tough winner. Maybe the ground was a bit quick, or she needs some headgear to help her concentrate. The bookies pushed her out to 7/1 on the back of this run.

As for Pretty Crystal she was game in victory, but she will need to be supplemented for the 1,000 Guineas.

City Of Troy backers would have been pleased with the outcome of Thursday's Craven Stakes. The winner, Haatem (17/2), had been beaten over six lengths by the 2,000 Guineas favourite last season but showed he had improved from two to three, to secure a decisive success.

However, some of his rivals underperformed compared to market expectations. French challenger and race favourite Alcantor (2/1) was too keen and finished sixth, while second favourite Eben Shaddad also struggled to settle but managed to finish second. Native Approach, another fancied runner, failed to settle and seemed outclassed on turf debut.

Haatem is likely to head to the 2,000 Guineas following this performance, although he'll need further progression to win that race. While winning a Classic would be surprising, he could potentially finish in the money. Additionally, his victory pays a compliment to stablemate Rosallion, who was his superior as a juvenile and heads to the 2,000 Guineas without a prep run.

Craven Meeting: Future Winners:

After a stop-start beginning to the new flat season, I finally have a few horses to add to the tracker. Here are three all from Newmarket’s Craven Meeting.

Spring Bloom – Robert Eddery

Spring Bloom ran well for a long way on his seasonal return when a 3 ¼ length 6^th of 14 to Tees Spirit in the 5f handicap on Tuesday. The 7-year-old is well suited to quick ground and is 1lb below his last winning mark.  A winner on his second start last season there is 5f handicap to be won with him in the coming weeks. Runner-up in the same race Navello has started the year in cracking form and can win again this season. The 5-year-old won the Epsom Dash on Derby Day last June, off 1lb higher and that seems the likely target once more.

Dutch Decoy – Charlie Johnston

Dutch Decoy left his Lincoln Handicap seasonal return well behind when a nose 2^nd of 17 to Hafeet Alain in the one-mile handicap on Tuesday. He was unlucky not to have added to his nine career wins as he was stuck behind horses 2f out and had to wait for a gap. In defeat the 7-year-old produced a career best on RPR’s. He’ll be nudged up the weights for this effort, but he should remain competitive in mile handicaps in the coming weeks.

Percy’s Lad – Daniel & Claire Kubler

Percy’s Lad returned from a six-month absence to finish a good 1 length 2^nd of 15 to Poet Master in the 7f handicap on Thursday. Although he was prominently ridden, which was the place to be, this was still an encouraging effort with the future in mind. On a losing run that goes back to August 2022, but he ran well twice at Chester last season including at the May meeting.  I have a feeling that the 6-year-old’s next race will be at Chester.

I overlooked the standout performer from Newmarket, which was Summerghand. He might but a 10-year-old, but he showed on Tuesday that he retains most of his ability when doing best of those coming from behind on Tuesday in a race won by Dark Thirty.  He didn’t get a clear run 2f and had no chance the way the track was riding. Down to a winnable mark when the cards fall right. The problem is everyone will be on him when he runs next, most likely at York.

Stylish Saffie

Before I finish my look back at last week, a few very brief words on jockey Saffie Osborne.  Saffie rode a double on Musselburgh’s Sunday Series card for two different trainers. I and Victor Value subscribers were cheering her home on Equality having backed the horse at 7/1.

What impressed me was how stylish she looks in the saddle. It may be controversial to some but I think she’s more streamlined than Hollie. Clearly last week’s glut of winners does wonders for the confidence, and it shows in her riding. Obviously, she gets rides from her father Jamie but last week she had winners for Ed Walker, Sir Michael Stoute, Jim Goldie, and Charlie Hills. There are some jockeys who I wouldn’t touch with a bargepole even if I fancy the horse I want back them. However, If I see Saffie is on one, I fancy I’m happy to put my money down. Intensely ambitious Saffie is now getting outside rides which is significant, and I would put her among the top five jockey’s riding.

Tuesday Preview

Tuesday's highlight is Epsom's first meeting of 2024. The feature races on a six-race card are the Listed Betfred Blue Riband Trial at 2:45, along with two historic handicaps, the City And Suburban Handicap at 3:20, and the Great Metropolitan Handicap at 3:55.

While the Blue Riband Trial isn't considered one of the more respected Classic Trials, notable winners include Cracksman in 2017 and Roland Gardens in 1978, who later won the 2,000 Guineas.

As for the two handicaps, they evoke memories of better days for the sport. Look at the crowd for the race in 1954.

In comparison, just 2,987 attended last year's fixture.

Epsom

Epsom's ground had dried out considerably by Sunday and was described as good. However, there's a slight cause for concern due to forecast rain, which might impact some of my fancies

Of particular interest to me are the first four races on the Epsom card.

2:10 – Mountain Peak's performance can be inconsistent, but he's shown his worth on his good days, such as when he finished just half a length behind the winner in a field of 13 at Ascot last September. With an 8-pound lower rating compared to his runner-up effort in the Dash over C&D in 2022, he could be competitive if the ground is good or faster. Looking for Lynda demonstrated early speed to win at York last September, and this track should suit him well. After seeming to need his seasonal return run at Pontefract earlier this month, he's likely to be a contender. Lihou hasn't been in top form on the all-weather in 2024, but he won this race last year on soft ground and will race off a 7-pound lower mark. If the ground softens due to rain, he could bounce back to form.

2:45 – Blue Riband Trial (Listed) – 1m 2f

Aidan O’Brien often sends over some of his lesser-known horses for these trials, using them as a way to gauge his rivals horses. However, he did produce the winner of this race in 2019. Chief Little Rock, trained by O’Brien, appears to be the best horse in the field based on known form and may benefit from racing on quicker ground. Starting as the early bird favorite at 5/4, it will be interesting to see how he swings in the betting.

Feigning Madness, who won both his juvenile starts on soft and heavy ground, is expected to improve for the step up to 1m 2f as a 3-year-old. The son of Ulysses is a strong contender. At attractive odds, Bellum Justum is worth considering. This son of Sea The Stars seemed to excel on good to firm ground when winning a Newmarket maiden (1m) last September. He is expected to perform well over middle distances this season and could be well positioned in a race lacking significant pace.

3:20 – City & Suburban Handicap – 1m2f

The booking of Ryan Moore for Silent Film caught my attention. The 5-year-old came close in a 1m 1f handicap at Meydan in January and may handle the 1m 2f distance based on that performance. However, the track is unfamiliar, and he may not prefer softened ground before post time, but he still holds solid claims.

Ziggy returns after a 451-day absence but showed promise with two wins in 2022, including on his seasonal reappearance. He has stamina beyond 1m 2f, suggesting he may not thrive in a tactically run race. With a likely return on a manageable mark and jockey Richard Kingscote boasting form figures of 121 on the 6-year-old, Ziggy remains an intriguing contender.

3:55 – Great Metropolitan Handicap – 1m 4f

The Goat relished testing ground when securing a comfortable victory in a Goodwood handicap (1m 4f) last August. However, he failed to replicate that form on three subsequent starts last season. Making his seasonal reappearance here, he may improve as a 4-year-old, especially under the guidance of trainer Andrew Balding, who has won this race twice since 2013.

Champagne Piaff is likely to attract attention from punters, with Ryan Moore riding for his father Gary. The 6-year-old returned from a lengthy 910-day break with a promising 4 ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Bath just 16 days ago. Versatile on different ground conditions and a former course winner (1m 2f), he should handle the 1m 4f distance. While he appears to be on a favorable mark, the relatively quick return to action may be a slight concern.

Apart from the final race my other fancies would probably prefer good or quicker ground, so I’ll be holding fire on any bets until I know the prevailing ground.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John