Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the best of the action on day one of Cheltenham’s December meeting.
Confidence is Everything
Confidence plays a crucial role in this game. Despite maintaining a profitable position for the month, my confidence doesn't match my expectations.
This shift in confidence sometimes leads to missed opportunities, as was the case with Event Of Sivola at 7/1 in a recent Hexham handicap chase. I opted to stay out of a Class 5 race, only to realize later that I passed on a potential winner.
On the flip side, diminished confidence also leads to impulsive decisions in races best avoided. Is this a cause for concern? Not at all It's just a temporary blip inherent in the unpredictability of betting on horses.
Update: My confidence seems to be back, as evidenced by my successful bet on Samuel Spade at Taunton yesterday, yielding a rewarding 11/1 winner.
The Night Before: Dwindling Value in Evening Odds
In a previous column, I discussed the odds available the night before racing. Recently, it seems that they have deteriorated even further, making it seemingly pointless to place bets the night before racing. The removal of Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) seems to have exacerbated the situation, and it’s now a bit of a joke.
Certainly, there is potential value in the pre-final declarations betting. However, it involves the risk that an overpriced horse may not end up running. For instance, Planned Paradise, instead of participating in the London National at Sandown on Saturday, was redirected to a race on the Friday card.
Bet365 opening over-rounds are a disgrace, often reaching 3% per runner in a race. I’m seeing horses that I like at 7/2 & 4/1 on the evening before racing and mid-morning they are double the price.
I may have singled out Bet365 unfairly, as Coral, Ladbrokes, and Hills are behaving similarly.
On the flip side, Paddy Power tend to shorten the odds for horses at the front of the market. Occasionally, this means they'll provide more favourable odds for those positioned lower in the betting. Yet, individuals successfully capitalizing on this will soon encounter challenges when trying to place decent bets.
To summarise: Evening odds are on a downward trend, making it impractical to engage in early betting the night before. You need to break the early bird habit and consider placing bets in mid-morning for potentially better value.
Cheltenham December Meeting
Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off this Friday, promising two days of thrilling racing. ITV4 will be broadcasting five live races from Cheltenham, along with two from Bangor, providing fans with an action-packed afternoon.
Here’s my quick delve into the Cheltenham December Meeting card.
12:05 – British EBF “National Hunt” Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) (Class 3) – 2m 1f
Those who read Thursday’s column will have noted Nicky Henderson’s compelling record at the meeting in non-handicap hurdles. His recent Warwick winner Kintail faces stiff competition from the impressive Dysart Enos. The drying ground favours Dysart Enos, and she could be a leading contender in the mares’ novices hurdle division. Mind you she’s plenty short enough and the Henderson horse maybe the value play.
12:40 – Cheltenham & South-West Racing Club Novices' Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
A deep field of novices, including Grey Dawning, Ginny’s Destiny, Crebilly, Trewlane, and Tritonic. It promises to be an exciting race with each of the five capable of winning. Crebilly seemed to be going better than Ginny’s Destiny here last month before falling two out. However, the eventual winner hit the line strongly so it's hard to say what the outcome would have been. I like Trewlane but he might need further in this company.
1:15 – Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 1f
Irish challenger Thecompanysergeant is likely on a good mark, on a going day but has become disappointing. Panjari, Doddiethegreat, and Donnacha are more solid contenders, making this handicap hurdle an intriguing contest.
1:50 – Cheltenham Racecourse Food Bank Collection Mares' Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
Royale Margaux, Le Malmason, I Am Gonna Be, and Malaita all have claims in what looks a competitive 13 runner handicap chase. For all her obvious claims Le Malmason is another short enough given she faces several interesting rivals.
2:25 – Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans' Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Top contenders include Le Ligerien, Storm Control, Top Ville Ben, and Sam Brown, and they should ensure a cracking race for both racegoers and TV viewers alike.
3:00 – Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5 ½ f
Galvin, Minella Indo, Gesskille and Latenightpass, promise to provide a high-quality contest over the Cross-Country obstacles. Gesskille could be capable of improvement over these obstacles and Latenightpass looks fairly solid.
3:35 – Citipost Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m
White Rhino, Gyenyame, Bold Endeavour, Paricolor, and Fontana Ellissi are all high on the short list for a compelling handicap hurdle. White Rhino and Paricolor were second and third here last month. The former keeps improving but the latter will be suited to the return to 3m. Fontana Ellissi hasn’t been seen for 13 months but he’s handicapped to go close if ready to roll.
There’s a nice balance to the Cheltenham card and it provides punters with some solid betting opportunities.
Stay tuned for a thrilling day of racing at Cheltenham's December meeting!
Bangor
First Lord De Cuet (1:30) and Astronomic View (2:05) look to have solid claims in their respective races at Bangor. The first named didn’t get the best of passages at Cheltenham last time and if he jumps with more fluency can take advantage of a drop-in class. Astronomic View will appreciate the testing ground and if he stays 2m 7f won’t be far away.
Friday Selection:
Another poor nap from yours truely yesterday. Today' I'm off to Cheltenham’s first race for today’s selection and its Kintail. He’s been weaker than I expected in the early betting which may down to some concerns about the health of the Nicky Henderson yard whose runners, Jonbon apart, haven’t been finishing their races off well this week. He's only 5/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes and despite what I said earlier, a standout 9/1 with Bet365. If you can get on at that price I think you should.
Cheltenham
12:05 – Kintail – 9/1 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John
As daft as it appears….bet after 15.00 pm and stick to Class 3 : 4 : 5 ;
Because early races are overbet and short-prices are usual
The BOG issue and night before prices (which used to entice me to bet then and not on the day) being withdrawn, is so short sighted by bookmakers.
Denise Coates (for example) has been paid 1.5 billion from 2016 to the end of the 2022 financial year.
When does, not enough, become, enough? I don’t really care about that, or, what all of the other rich list earners are paid, but I can’t for the life of me, understand why bookies continue to shoot their feet off, when the opportunities to get a jump on your rivals and keep their punters, is staring them in the face.
It used to be a working mans sport, but sport (in general) has become too big for it’s own boots and regardless of if it’s Football, Tennis or Golf etc…too many people have turned it all into a business to make as much money as is humanly possible, instead of promoting what it should be. How is Rahm truly worth 300 million for hitting a small white ball into a hole..how can it be right for Messi and Ronaldo to earn a couple of million per month for kicking a ball into a net etc…
Enough will never be enough ever again and that includes for all of the money
grabbing bookmakers, who have lost sight of what racing used to be and still could be.
Every week it seems that another breaking story secures the decline of our sport and now we have the Gov pondering over a minimum salary of 37k for foreign workers to be granted entry into the UK to work. Stable staff are short on the ground and in some cases badly so. Alot of those that keep their bosses in work are from overseas, but none of them will be paid that kind of money, will they.
More doom and gloom?
Bah..humbug!!
It is Christmas after all.