Hi all,
After looking at the juvenile colts yesterday today the focus is on the juvenile fillies. Plus, I’ve looked at Saturday’s Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree and couple of races at Newbury this afternoon.
Juvenile Fillies to Watch: 1,000 Guineas Picture
Aidan O’Brien once again holds a strong hand for the first fillies’ Classic with Precise and Diamond Necklace.
Precise was outstanding in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, following her Moyglare Stakes win at the Curragh. She’s already a dual Group 1 winner and would be an odds-on Guineas favourite if O’Brien didn’t also train Diamond Necklace.
Diamond Necklace impressed when winning the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp and looks the type to improve further at three. It was a smart move from O’Brien not to send her to the Breeders’ Cup, allowing her to end the season fresh and progressive.
Connections could send Diamond Necklace to France for the Pouliches and rely on Precise at Newmarket. If so, the 4/1 about Precise with bet365 looks generous, but the 7/1 about Diamond Necklace might prove even better value as I think she’ll prove to be the superior filly.
Beyond Ballydoyle, Zanthos and The Prettiest Star are two that could make their mark. Zanthos impressed when landing the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes and should stay a mile, while The Prettiest Star, only half a length behind her in the Rockfel, has the size and scope to improve plenty. Both are interesting each-way options in the first fillies classic if they train on.
Next up
That’s the colts and fillies covered for the Guineas. In Friday’s column I’ll turn the focus to next year’s Derby and Oaks prospects two races that already look stacked with exciting talent from both Ballydoyle and beyond.
Aintree: Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Preview
Saturday’s Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2:35), run over the famous National fences, takes centre stage at Aintree. No slight on Wincanton’s Badger Beer Chase, but this is the weekend’s real jumping highlight.
From 2006 to 2022, not one last-time-out winner had taken the Grand Sefton — a trend that stood firm for 17 years until being broken in the past two renewals.
It’s hardly gospel, but here’s a lightly backfitted set of trends that the last ten winners have in common. Providing some handy clues when finding the right type of horse for this race.
Familiar Faces Return
The first three home last year — King Turgeon, Vintage Fizz, and Gaboriot — all return.
King Turgeon is 10lb higher than twelve months ago and 4lb above his last winning mark. That said, he really took to these fences and could well be a course specialist. He had a prep run before winning last year, so perhaps connections have the Becher Chase in mind this time. Still, he deserves his place at the head of the market.
Vintage Fizz did well to get as close as he did last year consider he wasn’t ideally positioned towards the rear. Now 13lb better off with the winner, he’s respected if the ground stays decent, though he’s not arriving in the same form as he was twelve months ago.
Gaboriot also handled the fences well and is another 13lb better off with King Turgeon. Like last year, this trip could prove a shade short on goodish ground, and he may be better suited by the longer Becher Chase next month. Stablemate White Rhino was progressive last autumn when winning his first two starts over fences. He bled when pulling up in March but is a big player here if returning in that same form as the end of last year.
Our Power handled these fences well when running a bold race for a long way in the 2023 Grand National before stamina ran out. Placed in all four starts last season and a proven performer first time out, he’s 5lb better off for three lengths with King Turgeon from their Cheltenham clash last December. Dropping back in trip after a fine third in the Scottish National, he’s a strong contender for Sam Thomas, who won this in 2022.
Ones to Note
Johnnywho was only beaten a neck in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and didn’t quite get home when fifth in the Irish Grand National. Back from a break, he’s three from three returning from a 121+ day layoff, so fitness won’t be an issue. There’s a valuable handicap in him – the question is whether connections save him for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury later this month.
Colonel Harry looked a nice novice two seasons ago but failed to build on his reappearance run at Carlisle in the Colin Parker. He’s on a winnable mark, yet all four of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground. He’ll need rain to show his best.
Frero Banbou ran third in this two years ago and was sixth last year after travelling well for much of the race. He ended last season out of form but is now just 3lb above his last winning mark. Trained by Venetia Williams, he’s the type to go well in the early part of the season and could easily run a big race on return.
Thursday Preview
The Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase (2:57) is Thursday’s feature, offering €35,400 to the winner. Only four line up, with dual Grade 1 novice chaser Il Etait Temps a long odds-on favourite on his seasonal return. He looked mightily impressive when winning at Sandown in April, and it’s great to see him back on the track.
Newbury Card Overview
Newbury hosts an interesting card for its jump season opener with a few promising young horses in action. Among the handicaps, the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Series Qualifier (2:50) looks the pick.
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (2:50)
Smart handicap chaser Haiti Couleurs makes his seasonal return over hurdles. He’s likely well treated, but this looks more of a prep run with the Coral Gold Cup over fences his main aim later this month. Don’t expect him to be given a hard race.
Tranquil Sea looked a big improver when scoring at Chepstow last month on his second start for Dan Skelton. He’s up 6lb but remains fairly treated and looks a major player.
Samuel Spade returns from wind surgery and is 7lb above his last winning mark. That said, the yard is flying, and he could easily get into the frame.
East India Express was well backed (4/1 fav) before falling on his seasonal return at Cheltenham 13 days ago. He won three of his four starts last term and, on decent ground, still looks on a good mark. His stamina for three miles, though, is unproven and that makes him one to oppose at the trip.
Lihyan returned from a four-month break with a solid third at Aintree 11 days ago. He lacks gears but stays well, and three mile plus on a sound surface suits him ideally. He’s on a fair mark and has each-way claims.
Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3:25
Just the four line-up for the 2m4f handicap chase (3:25).
Outlaw Peter was in excellent form in spring 2024 but ran below par on his two starts last season. He returns with questions to answer, though he’s back down to his last winning mark and could easily bounce back to winning ways.
Lord Baddesley is likely on a winning mark when everything falls right. However, he’s been frustrating since joining his current yard. Still, the stables in fine form, which keeps him in the mix.
Leader In The Park, from another in-form yard, was two from five over fences last season. He’s open to further improvement and looks set to get an uncontested lead which could make him very dangerous on his return.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John