Hi all,
Today, I’m looking back at Sunday’s Classic Trials at Leopardstown and sharing my first Flat tracker horses.
My Flat hat came out for two days last weekend. Now, it’s back in the box—for two weeks. The Aintree Grand National Festival kicks off on Thursday, building up to the world’s most famous horse race Saturday’s Grand National.
I won’t debate whether the great race has lost its allure. For me, there’s no doubt it has. That said, I still love the Aintree’s Grand National Festival. It’s the second-biggest National Hunt meeting after Cheltenham and one I always enjoy.
Over the next couple of days, I’ll be deep in Aintree form study, hoping to keep last weekend’s profits rolling from Thursday to Saturday.
If you want my Aintree Grand National Festival previews and selections, you can get them here.
But first, let’s dive into Sunday’s Leopardstown action.
Leopardstown: O’Brien Strikes Again at Leopardstown Classic Trials
Henri Matisse gave Aidan O’Brien a seventh win in ten years in the Group 3 Ballylinch Stud “Red Rocks” Stakes. Dropping back to 7f, he briefly looked in trouble 2f out, but a forceful Ryan Moore ride saw him get up close home. A return to a mile should bring more improvement for the Wootton Bassett colt.
He could now head to Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas, but the bookies weren’t convinced. He’s a general 12/1 shot, with William Hill offering a standout 16/1. For now, I agree with William Hill’s stance on his Guineas chances.
O’Brien’s 5/6 favourite, Exactly, lined up in the Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” Stakes. But there was no Guineas Trial double for the stable.
Instead, Swelter – returning from a long layoff – proved too sharp for her rivals. The Dermot Weld filly, last seen winning a maiden over 1m here in July, showed plenty of speed to land this 7f contest. A step back up to a mile in the Irish 1,000 Guineas will suit, and her pedigree suggests she could stay 1m 2f. A big, scopey filly, she’s progressed well from two to three and looks set for a good season.
Exactly looked like she’d challenge 1f out, but her effort flattened late. I’m not convinced she gave everything.
O’Brien was soon back in the winner’s enclosure as Delacroix landed the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes. A nose runner-up on soft in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, he’s another who thrived over the winter. This was a straightforward success, but he remains open to more improvement. If he builds on this, he’s a live Derby contender at a general 10/1 for Epsom.
Future Winners
I mentioned yesterday that the Lincoln Handicap had its fair share of hard-luck stories. It’s worth rewatching. However, today’s tracker horses come from two other races at Doncaster.
Myal – Steph Hollinshead
Myal thrived over 7f last season, winning four handicaps between August and October. He ran a big race on seasonal return, finishing a 1¼-length third of 21 in the William Hill Spring Mile Handicap. Crucially, he did best of those ridden prominently and was conceding race fitness to the first two home. He went for home two furlongs which given the headwind was probably to early. I think he stays a mile, but a drop back to 7f wouldn’t surprise me. The Victoria Cup at Ascot could be a good target.
Physique – Pam Sly
Physique made his debut for Pam Sly in Sunday’s 6f handicap and ran well. Racing near the stands' side, he was held up early before making steady headway from 1f out. He finished a 1¾-length fourth of 19 behind Dark Thirty.
Both his career wins have come over 7f, so stepping back up in trip could see him back in the winner’s enclosure. His best form also suggests he thrives when racing within 15 days of his last start. I’m confident Pam Sly can land a handicap with him this season.
Trilby, from the same race, also caught the eye. He never got a clear run in the final two furlongs but still finished well. He’s 3-5 at Haydock, so he could strike there soon.
In Wednesday’s column I’ll have a few Aintree Grand National Festival stats for you.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John