Hi all,
The Flat is back! Sadly, it now goes into hibernation for two weeks until Newbury’s Greenham meeting. Inside today’s main piece, I review Saturday’s ITV racing.
Saturday Recap
I’ve argued before that the Flat season should start with a bang—Lincoln Day the weekend before the Craven and Greenham meetings. It won’t happen, but it makes sense. While the Irish Flat scene gathers momentum, UK fans must wait another fortnight for things to kick into gear.
Many punters play it safe in the early weeks of the Flat season. I usually do too, but this year I went for it. It paid off, with both winners albeit coming on the all-weather at Kempton rather than Doncaster.
Doncaster – Conditions & Key Performances
The ground dried out but remained dead rather than genuinely good. A strong mostly headwind in the straight made cover essential on the first day of the flat season.
Brocklesby Stakes
Amo Racing and Richard Hannon landed the first 2yo race of the flat season with Norman’s Cay. The 3/1 favourite just held off Son Of Sarabi in a thrilling finish. Hannon had won this in 2022 with Persian Force, who later finished second at Royal Ascot. Norman’s Cay wasn’t as visually impressive but showed a good attitude. The son of Sioux Nation should go well in early-season juvenile races.
Cammidge Trophy
Spycatcher took advantage of a class drop, holding off a fast-finishing Iberian by a neck. The runner-up was unlucky. He hit the front, but a whip strike from Jason Watson caused him to veer left, losing momentum. That whip strike was costly. Spycatcher took a bump from the runner-up but that powered him forward to win.
Doncaster Mile
Dancing Gemini bounced back with a strong win. He failed to score last year but ran well first time out when runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas. This time, he travelled well, kicked on a furlong out, and quickened impressively. He’s a miler who needs to race close to the pace. The Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. He deserves to take his chance back in Group 1 company and has a good chance of emulating Charyn who won this and the Lockinge last season.
Godwinson Wins Fifth Lincoln for Haggas
William Haggas landed his fifth Lincoln with Godwinson. The four-year-old came from last to first under a patient ride. Held up with cover (crucial given the wind), he had to wait for a gap before flying home late to deny Oliver Snow by a nose.
Had he not found the opening, he’d have been unlucky. Instead, he got the perfect passage and given the wind direction proved to be ideally positioned. He’s improved for over the winter but whether he backs this up remains to be seen, and he won’t get a race pan out as well as this one did.
Oliver Snow looked like had come with a perfectly timed run, but he hung left inside the final furlong. His head was up on the line—a costly moment. In front just before the line and just after. He was 6lb well-in after his improved Bahrain form, and he’ll go up further after this. Orandi, the Irish Lincolnshire winner, ran well again in third under a 5lb penalty.
Magnum Opus finished fourth and likely preferred quicker ground. Midnight Gun (6th) had his conditions but did best of those racing into the wind. He’s worth keeping onside on soft. Thunder Run, who made the running, was in the worst spot given the conditions. He’s not one to give up back on quicker ground.
The race will be worth rewatching here as there were a few hard luck stories.
Kempton Recap – Profitable Saturday
Kempton delivered a strong card, with front-runners generally holding an edge—except in the Rosebery Handicap, the day's most valuable race.
No winners for me at Doncaster, but two nice-priced successes made it a very profitable Saturday for Victor Value subscribers.
Queen’s Prize – Cool Party Delivers
On Friday, I mentioned Cool Party would benefit from a positive ride from Silvestre De Sousa. That’s exactly what happened. He took the Queen’s Prize Handicap in style. I can’t figure out the Johnston yard, but their jockey bookings always warrant attention.
Rosebery Handicap – Teumessias Fox Lands the Bet
I told Victor Value subscribers I’d target early ante-post value this Flat season. Teumessias Fox was my pick at 12/1 on Wednesday for the Rosebery Handicap—and he delivered. Sent off at 4/1 favourite, he fully justified my opinion that he was overpriced. Keen early, he got the breaks on the inner two furlongs out and quickened smartly to win nicely. He’s a classy all-weather performer on his day particularly at Kempton (3111) and proved it again on Saturday.
Snowdrop Stakes – Soprano Holds On
Soprano made a winning return to action in the Listed Snowdrop Stakes. Top-rated on Official Ratings, William Buick sent her to the front. A furlong out, she looked set for an easy win, but lack of race fitness showed late. Crimson Advocate finished strongly, failing by just a nose. Another stride, and she’d have won. She proved her stamina for the mile and will be one to follow. I was surprised about the winners SP (2/1). On Friday she was very short but at 2/1 she was allowed to go off at generous odds.
Tomorrow, I’ll review Sunday’s informative Leopardstown card and share my first Flat season tracker horses.
Good luck with your Monday bets!
John