Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find my thoughts on the best of the Friday action.
It’s a good afternoon for fans of both codes. The Scottish Grand National meeting begins at Ayr, and Newbury launches its flat season.
Ayr
Ayr’s two-day meeting opens with a bang. Record prize money (£500k on Saturday) and a sold-out crowd show just how popular this fixture remains.
I had a hunch that Dan Skelton had a good record on the Friday of Ayr’s Scottish Grand National and digging into stats I found that he indeed did – 13 winners from 42 runners 31% +29.17, 22 places with an A/E=1.51.
He was 3-9 last year but 0-5 in 2023 so doesn't always hit the bullseye.
2:40 – Handicap Hurdle (3m ½f)
Ace Of Spades shaped well on handicap debut and today’s longer trip could suit.
Histrionic steps into handicap company after a small-field win—more to come?
Imperial Merlin returns to the scene of his last big win. Reliable and likes good ground.
Belvedere Blast needs to travel better but has ability. Each-way player if the pace is strong.
3:15 – Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (2m 4½f)
Dan Skelton’s Riskintheground looks primed. Yard has won this four times since 2017.
Persian Time gets first-time cheekpieces and quicker ground—both positives. Recent form poor though.
Crebilly drops back in trip. Needs to jump better but is potentially well-handicapped.
4:25 – Handicap Hurdle (2m 5½f)
Nurse Susan was better than the bare result at Cheltenham. Will improve for the run.
Florida Dreams is well treated and back at a course he likes.
Phantomofthepoints wears a tongue tie for the first time. Has a squeak if bouncing back to form.
Newbury
A mix of novice/maiden and competitive handicaps marks Newbury’s return.
4:10 – Silver Bar Handicap (2m1f)
Robert Johnson stays well and handles most ground. Solid but vulnerable to better handicapped rivals.
4:45 – 7f Handicap
Spell Master is lightly raced, ground-suited, and his yard won this in 2019. Could go well fresh.
5:20 – 6f Handicap
Sir Les Patterson has never raced on turf at 6f—interesting runner with Oisin Murphy booked.
Change Sings ran well on return and could come on plenty for it.
Havana Pusey was just denied at Doncaster. Same mark, big shout.
Chief Mankato is consistent and is on a workable mark.
Zoulu Chief returns from a long layoff. Plenty of past ability but fitness and well-being taken on trust.
If you want my weekend picks and for what's going to be a busy 30 days you can get them here.
Good luck with your Friday bets,
John