Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece there are two horses for the tracker. Plus, I preview Tuesday’s feature race at Southwell.
Brrr… it’s been cold and its wintry in deepest Yorkshire. After all the recent rain and subsequent waterlogging of racecourses. Now it’s frost and maybe snow later in the week that’s going to impact on jumps fixtures. I was hoping to go to Catterick on Wednesday for the North Yorkshire Grand National, but I suspect that meeting might become a victim of the freezing weather.
Future Winners
If I hadn’t got New Year’s Day to work on there wouldn’t be any horses for the tracker this week. I couldn’t really find any from what remained of the weekend action, so I’m left with two from last Monday’s racing.
Both this week’s future winners ran at Cheltenham. Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day card wasn’t as deep as previous years, and the field sizes were poor. That said I found several that are worth keeping an eye on.
Stage Star
Stage Star was a major disappointment in the Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase. He never looked happy and didn’t travel as well as he had done when winning the Paddy Power on his seasonal return and wisely his jockey pulled-up him up before two out.
Maybe it was the heavy ground, or he was just off colour on the day or indeed he had just had his flu jab who knows. Whatever the reason, this wasn’t his true running and I expect the 8-year-old to bounce back at the Festival.
You should always be prepared to excuse a horse for a bad run. If you can find a reason why you can forgive then your prospect of obtaining value odds is usually increased.
Inch House
Inch House was bidding for the hat trick in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase (3m 1 ½ f) after two wins at Newbury. Despite a 7lb rise in the weights he still looked ahead of the handicapper. He finished a respectable 5 length 2nd of 5 to Stumptown but I don’t think the heavy ground was to his liking.
His three previous career wins had come on good to soft/good ground according to Timeform and a return to better ground can see the 7-year-old return to his progressive ways. I see he’s a best priced 16/1 for the Kim Muir at the Festival and that could be an ideal race for him if he gets his favoured underfoot conditions.
Anway back to this week’s tracker horses.
Libberty Hunter – Evan Williams
Libberty Hunter, a faller on chase debut has since won his last two starts over fences the latest of them coming in the Close Brothers Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (2m ½ f) at Cheltenham. What impressed me about his success was the way he finished off his race. He looks the sort who will be seen in an even better light in bigger field handicap. The handicapper has hiked up 10lb for this success, but I will be surprised if a new official rating of 132 is the summit of his ability.
Ed Keeper – Sam Thomas
Ed Keeper had impressed me when winning on his previous start at Newbury. Although he wasn’t able to follow up from a 9lb higher mark in Monday’s Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle. He still posted a career best on RPR’s when finishing a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 10 to Butch. Indeed, he might well have won but for a mistake at the last. He’s only had six career starts so is open to further improvement.
It might also be worth keeping an eye on the fifth in that race Fontana Ellissi. All the 8-year-old’s career wins have come on good or at worst good to soft ground. So, Monday’s underfoot conditions wouldn’t have been ideal. He stays 3m and when he gets back on a sounder surface, and he drops down a notch in class he can return to winning ways.
Tuesday Preview
Tuesday’s Exeter card has already been abandoned due to freezing ground. That just leaves Market Rasen and an evening Southwell all-weather card.
Market Rasen was raceable on Monday afternoon but who knows how much frost they will have overnight. If they can’t race it wouldn’t be a big loss to me. Just 39 horses have been declared for the six races on the card and only one race has more than 7 runners.
The best race of the day is at Southwell. The Bet 10 Get 40 At BetMGM Handicap (7:00) is a Class 2 contest run over 7f and with £13608 on offer to the winner it’s attracted a field of 13.
Southwell
7:00 – Racing on a Tuesday doesn’t come much more competitive than this 7f handicap. Of the 13 runners I can make some sort of case for nine of them and I still might have missed the winner.
The likes of Follow Your Heart, Lord Of The Lodge, Intervention and Excel Power all come into the race in form. You wouldn’t be surprised if either of those four were to win.
Greatgadian also come into the race in excellent form. He was a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 10 to Master Zoffany at Newcastle (7f) last month. Arguably a mile would suit the 6-year-old better but if the forecast strong materialises he’s got solid claims.
Gulliver isn’t the easiest to win with these days. However, the 10-year-old is 2-3 at Southwell and was doing his best work at the finish when 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton 10 days ago. Not the horse he once was but handicapped to go close on a going day. One place and ¼ length behind him that day was Starshiba. A strongly run race will suit him and he’s got each way claims of he gets it.
Another with place claims is Misty Grey. The 7-year-old, a normally consistent performer on the all-weather at 6f/7f, is on a losing run of 13 but has to be respected off his present mark. Not at his best on his last two starts but not one to discount on a going day.
Doctor Khan Junior made it 3-5 on the all-weather when winning at Wolverhampton (7f) 43 days ago. Has a 9lb rise in a deeper race to contend with but the 4-year-old but he’s got an upwardly mobile profile and could be up the task.
Verdict:
Roger Varian is 4-12 with his runners in the past 14 days so you must respect his runner Greatgadian. Although 7f might be on the short side unless they go a good gallop. Misty Grey needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs on his first start at Southwell. However, he could have handy stall in 2 and has each way claims on a going day. Stall 12 isn’t ideal for Doctor Khan Junior. But the 5-year-old is progressive and he’s the pick ahead of Greatgadian and Misty Grey.
Tuesday Selection:
Southwell
7:00 – Doctor Khan Junior – 15/2 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John