Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I complete my look back at the July Festival. Plus, you’ll find some more future winners for the tracker.
Newmarket July Festival Review
Newmarket’s July Festival is for me the weakest of the big summer flat festivals. That’s said you often get to see a couple of high class performances and this year didn’t disappoint.
The field sizes for the pattern races at this year’s meeting were disappointing albeit not helped by the change in going. However, we did see four outstanding performances over the three days from Nostrum, Nashwa, City of Troy & Shaquille.
Before looking at the performances in a little more detail. First, a few thoughts on the going at Newmarket.
On Thursday it was good to firm and that was confirmed by the times on day one.
Moving onto Friday’s action. It looks like the rain had got into the ground after Nashwa won the Falmouth Stakes with the final three races on the card producing times representative of good to soft.
On the Saturday although the official going description was good to soft on times it was more like good ground. That suggests the strong wind at the track had an effect.
N.B. Whilst on the subject of going descriptions. At York on Saturday the going was described as good to soft but on the times, I have seen it was much closer to good to firm.
Nostrum
Nostrum can make up for lost time and show he’s a Group 1 miler after his success here on Thursday. It was only a listed race that he won but he produced a performance of future Group 1 winner. I know it was only a Listed race that the Nostrum won but for me and it may surprise some but his performance was the highlight of the three days.
Will he go for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood or could they step up him to 1m 2f for the International Stakes at York. A race which is sponsored by the owners. On pedigree he should stay 1m 2f and York could really suit the colt.
Nashwa
Nashwa improved on her 3-year-old best to win the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on Friday. Disappointing on her first two starts this season. She had no problem with the drop back to a mile and her career is firmly back on track.
The Nassau Stakes that she won last year will be her next start. There she will take on high class French 3-year-old filly Blue Rose Cen. That should be some race if both fillies bring their ‘A’ game to Goodwood.
Blue Rose Cen is 6/4 favourite for the Nassau with William Hill with Nashwa at 3/1. I think Nashwas should be closer to the French filly and there’s a case to made that she should be favourite after Friday’s performance.
City of Troy
City Of Troy put in the juvenile performance of the season in winning the Superlative Stakes. I’m not sure what he beat but he beat them in impressive style on ground that probably wasn’t ideal. If he trains on, then he’ll be an exciting 3-year-old prospect. You can see why he’s favourite for next season’s 2,000 Guineas.
Given they have already got River Tiber and now City of Troy. One wonders if Aidan O’Brien and the ‘lads’ have any more lurking that we haven’t yet seen. Even if they don’t they have a stranglehold on the juvenile colts division.
Looking at City Of Troy’s pedigree it cries out middle distances as a 3-year-old. There’s no way he should have the speed and precocity to win over 7f in July. However, he has just done that. Is he a special or will he turn out to be a colt that turns out to have been just a great juvenile. It’s going to fascinating finding out.
Shaquille
Shaquille might be a bit of a headcase, but he’s got so much raw ability as he’s showed in winning the Commonwealth Cup and now the July Cup. The sprint division isn’t strong but he’s the best sprinter we’ve had since Battaash and I think he could turn out to be better.
He’s got so much pace that you would love to see the colt drop back to 5f and go for the Nunthorpe Stakes. Connections haven’t ruled it out although they seem minded to keep him at 6f for the Sprint Cup at Haydock. Surely the temptation to win a Group 1 track at her local track will prove too much for trainer Julie Camacho. A win at York and he will rightly be crowned this season’s Sprint Champion.
Unbeaten on all four starts as a 3-year-old. He’s been ridden by three different jockeys. On Saturday Rossa Ryan got the leg up and was also gaining his first Group 1 success.
Finally, a few thoughts on a Group 1 race at Longchamp on Friday evening which has gone under the radar.
Grand Prix De Paris: The French Are Back
Feed The Flame and Soul Sister were both supplemented for Friday’s race, and they repaid connections by finishing first and third respectively.
Feed The Flame a winner of his first two starts had found the 1m 2 ½ f of the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) a bit too much of a speed test on his previous start but the step up 1m 4f brought out the best in the Kingman colt.
Last for much of the race after an awkward start. He had to wait for a gap 2f out but once in the clear he produced a power packed finish to beat Adelaide River and Soul Sister.
The form looks solid the second had finished runner-up in the Irish Derby and the third had won the Oaks.
Feed The Flame’s win was a nice form boost for Ace Impact the horse that beat him in the French Derby. Although he beat Adelaide River by slightly less than Auguste Rodin did at the Curragh. I think this was the best 1m 4f performance we have seen from a 3-year-old this season.
It’s a few years since we had so many decent French trained 3-year-old’s. We now have Ace Impact, Blue Rose Cen and Feed The Flame. Oh, and don’t forget French Derby Runner-up Big Rock. On soft ground I can see that colt winning a Group 1 over a mile this season.
Future Winners:
There’s was so much quality racing last weekend that’s it going to take a bit more time than normal to look back at the race replays. However, here are some of my early findings starting at Newmarket on Thursday.
Newmarket
The valuable bet365 Handicap was by the admirable Quinault who was a completing an incredible handicap six timer. It will be interesting to see how the 3-year-old fares against the older horses, but you might not have reached his class ceiling just yet. Trainer Stuart Williams thinks he will stay 7f and he could head to Ascot for the valuable International Stakes (Handicap) at the end of the month.
Executive Decision & Be Frank shaped well behind Quinault on Thursday.
Executive Decision finished a 4 ½ length 5th was having just her second start since joining Jamie Osborne from Jessica Harrington. A winner at Naas last September the filly has only had six career starts and did best of those to come from off the pace. Eligible for 0-85 handicaps she can win again when eased in class.
Be Frank finished a 5 length 7th. He was bidding for a hat trick after wins at Salisbury & Windsor but found things happening a bit quickly in a hot handicap like this. Outpaced 2f out he stayed on strongly at the finish shaping like he needs a step up to 7f which on pedigree should suit. Looked on a fair mark coming into the race and can win again.
Killybegs Warrior won the 1m 2f heritage handicap the open Friday’s card on the July Course. However, there are couple of horses that caught my eye behind him.
Westerton – Alan King
Westertona winner at Sandown on his previous start improved again when finishing a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 12 from a 9lb higher mark. Doing his best work at the finish. He can improve a bit more for the step up to 1m 4f and there are more races to be won with the 3-year-old.
Local Dynasty third in the Gold Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot ran a similar a race to finish a 2 ½ length fourth. The top weight didn’t get the clearest of runs 2f out but stayed on well enough once in the clear. Jockey James Doyle wasn’t hard on him the closing stages when he realised, he couldn’t win. There’s a handicap to be won with him and he’s another who could step up in distance next time. There’s a 1m 4f handicap at Goodwood which his yard won last year that he could go for.
Bless Him – David Simcock
Bless Him won last year’s Bunbury Cup and he ran another good race in the race when a 2 ½ length 4th of 15 to Biggles. The 9-year-old finished a short head 2nd of 21 in last year’s International Stakes (Handicap) at Ascot after winning the Bunbury Cup. That race looks likely on his agenda once more. And its likely that Jamie Spencer will be back in the saddle. He’ll be off the same mark as last year and may well face Biggles again (8/1 ante post fav). However, on quicker ground I can see him getting closer to Saturday's winner. I was surprised he was still 25/1 for the International Stakes with Paddy Power after Saturday’s effort and have backed him.
Tuesday Preview
The best of Tuesday’s action is across the Irish Sea where it’s day two of Killarney’s four day July meeting. I’m off to Nottingham for today’s selection and it’s a recent eyecatcher in Strong Johnson.
Here’s what I wrote after his latest run at Doncaster.
“Strong Johnson is on a losing run of 16 which goes back to August 2021 and has yet to trouble the judge on five runs since joining his present trainer. However, he’s tumbled down the weights to a good mark and travelled as well as anything when 3 ¼ length 6th of 8 to Rogue Lightning at Doncaster on Friday. Now eligible for 0-80 handicaps and will surely be placed to winning advantage over 5f before too long”.
Strong Johnson seems to be ground versatile, won on soft ground twice when trained in Ireland.
Trainer Paul Midgley has booked 5lb apprentice Conor Planas and he’s having first ride for the trainer.
Yard form tempers enthusiasm slightly, just 1 winner from 31 runners in the past 14-days, but he remains the pick.
Tuesday Selection:
Yesterday’s selection Ayr Poet just lost out in a photo at Ayr.
Nottingham
8:00 – Strong Johnson – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John