Profit from General Election

Hi all,

Something a little different inside today’s main piece.

General Election 2024

Back in the 1990s, when political betting was new, savvy bettors could make serious money from bookies who didn't have a clue. I made more money from the 1992 General Election than I did in several years of betting on horses. Unfortunately, the bookies and other punters quickly caught on, and my edge disappeared. I still enjoy the occasional political flutter, especially during a General Election. It adds a bit of fun to election night.

Here's my brief thoughts on the 2024 General Election.

Sunak’s Mulroney Moment

Brian Mulroney, Prime Minister and leader of the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party, resigned in 1993 amid declining popularity. In the 1993 Canadian General Election, the PC Party suffered a historic defeat, dropping from a majority government to just two seats in the House of Commons.

UK Conservative Party’s Prospects

If the opinion polls are accurate, the UK Conservative Party is heading for its worst-ever General Election result. It seems a foregone conclusion that Sir Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister, with the Labour Party expected to secure a significant majority. However, there are intriguing subplots that might keep people up late on election night, and there's always the chance of an unexpected result, making it impossible not to watch.

Key Questions

• How many seats will the Conservative Party hold?
• Can the Reform Party surpass the Conservative Party in vote share?
• Will the Liberal Democrats become His Majesty’s opposition?

I’ve already cast my vote by post, but turnout could be low. Despite the lack of enthusiasm for the Labour Party compared to 1997 and high disillusionment with politicians, I expect turnout to be in the low to mid-60s.

Polling Data

The last opinion poll I saw on Wednesday afternoon showed the following vote shares:

• LAB: 38%
• CON: 21%
• RFM: 18%
• LDM: 10%
• GRN: 7%
• SNP: 3%

There might be a small late swing from Reform and undecided voters to the Conservatives. If this happens, the Conservatives might avoid their worst-case scenario of ending up with fewer than 80 seats. I find the Conservatives getting 100-149 seats appealing and have bet at 13/8 with Paddy Power.

Reform Party’s Chances

If upcoming polls also show a drop in the Reform vote, it might indicate that the Reform Party peaked too early. However, I suspect there are “shy” Reform voters keeping their intentions private. Therefore, I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that Reform could finish ahead of the Conservatives in vote share. I expect Reform to win no more than six seats but to have many second or close third-place finishes, especially in the North and Midlands. I’ve bet on Reform getting 5-6 seats at 11/2 with William Hill.

Liberal Democrats’ Prospects

I expect the Conservative Party to get just over 100 seats, so there’s no chance the Liberal Democrats will become the official opposition. However, if the worst-case scenario occurs for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats will gain. William Hill has 66+ seats as the favourite for the Liberal Democrats at 5/2, which seems a bit too many. However, I can see them getting more than 50 seats, with Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on 56-60 seats and 6/1 on 51-55 seats.

General Election 2024 Verdict

I expect a comfortable Labour majority, but I don't think they will get 40% of the vote more like 38%. I think the Conservative Party will do slightly better than the polls suggest. My weakest bet is on the Reform Party's number of seats, and I’m hedging my bets regarding the Liberal Democrats' number of seats.

General Election 2024 Bets

• Conservative Party to get 100-149 seats: £38 win – 13/8 @ Paddy Power.
• Liberal Democrats to get 56-60 seats: £17 win – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes.
• Liberal Democrats to get 51-55 seats: £16 win – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes
• Reform Party to get 5-6 seats: £16 win – 11/2 with William Hill.

I usually play the individual constituency markets, but this year I haven’t had the time. However, if you know your local areas, you should have an edge over other punters.

This is all a bit of fun, and I’m not staking much, but I’m hopeful of making a small profit from my bets.

That's my General Election 2024 thoughts done and Horse racing returns to its usual slot on Friday.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John