Hi all,
I’m In Royal Ascot mode inside today’s main piece. Plus, there are some eyecatchers from last week’s racing.
City Of Troy Can Eclipse Rivals
City Of Troy has been confirmed for next month's Coral Eclipse at Sandown. This is great news for Sandown and the sponsors but feels like a snub to the Irish Derby.
Traditionally, Coolmore's Derby winners head to the Irish Derby, but this year they have Epsom Derby third Los Angeles as a strong contender for that race. The choice of Sandown over the Curragh seems strategic. City Of Troy will face older horses over 1m 2f at the Coral Eclipse before potentially heading to the Travers Stakes in the U.S. on dirt. This plan makes sense but is a setback for the Curragh and the prestige of the Irish Derby.
I'm hoping City Of Troy remains in Europe for a turf campaign this summer. The likely path could include the Coral Eclipse, International Stakes at York, Irish Champion Stakes, and the Arc. Personally, I don't understand the fascination with running him on dirt. While his sire Justify excelled on dirt, his dam is turf-oriented, and his action doesn't suggest he's naturally suited for dirt. That said, it's possible he could perform just as well on the surface.
George Boughey Hitting Form for Royal Ascot
Trainer George Boughey had a quiet start to the flat season, leaving many to wonder when he would hit top gear. The answer appears to be now.
On Saturday, Boughey’s Believing triumphed in the Listed Achilles Stakes, and the yard is among the winners including anotther at Windsor yesterday evening.
It seems the Boughey stable is peaking just in time for Royal Ascot, which is good news for stable followers
Regarding trainer form here’s a list of all trainers with four or more winners in the last seven days:
In addition to Boughey, Aidan O’Brien’s runners are also in excellent form leading up to Royal Ascot, boasting an impressive 53% win strike rate. This signals that O’Brien’s stable is well-prepared and likely to perform strongly at Royal Ascot.
This upswing in form for Boughey and the remarkable consistency of O’Brien’s stable suggest that both trainers’ runners are ones to watch at Royal Ascot, potentially bringing more success and delight to their followers.
Royal Ascot Weather Watch
Unfortunately, a cool and wetter spell is expected to persist until at least the end of the coming weekend. The forecast shows tentative signs of improvement next week, but it won't be wall-to-wall sunshine and heat.
The best we can hope for is a shift to average mid-June summer weather. Given the current outlook, even that would be a relief. However, weather predictions this far in advance can be uncertain, so conditions could either improve or even worsen. I wouldn’t be in hurry to dismiss horses who need ease in the ground just yet.
With Royal Ascot just a week away, I am deep into form study and have already pinpointed some promising bets. Now, we just need the weather to cooperate for some fast summer ground.
Indeed, it’s only the uncertain weather forecast that’s prevented me from pulling the trigger on some ante post bets.
Daily Punt and Royal Ascot
As mentioned last week, my input for the Daily Punt during Royal Ascot will be limited this year. It’s a busy week and I must prioritise my subscribers and I will be previewing four juvenile races for Matt Bisogno over at Geegeez.
Special Offer
For those who want my detailed insights and selections for Royal Ascot, you can get them here. Use the coupon code VICTOR30 at checkout to save 30%.
Future Winners
Last week's racing didn’t produce many eyecatchers, but here are two from Ireland:
Saturn – Jessica Harrington
Irish-trained horses in York’s Ebor Handicap have a remarkable record since 2009, with 7 winners from 46 runners (+60.5) and 16 placed.
Last Wednesday, the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Handicap was won by Saturn, a progressive 4-year-old trained by Jessica Harrington. With 3 wins from 7 runs and a strong handicap record with form figures 131, Saturn’s victory over 1m 6f showcased his potential. He idled close to the finish, indicating he had more in hand. Suited to quick ground (2-2 on good to firm), Saturn is high on my shortlist for the Ebor at York, and the return of cheekpieces could enhance his performance.
Koniag – Kieran Cotter
Koniag, trained by Kieran Cotter, returned from a seven-month absence to win a mile handicap at Leopardstown on Thursday, marking his first victory in seven attempts. The 3-year-old showed significant improvement, handling quick ground effectively. Despite being reassessed, he should remain competitive and can win again.
Top Clockers
A new feature highlighting horses that have impressed on the clock.
Verhoyen
Back to form for the first time this season with a 1 ¼ length second at Fairyhouse (7f) last Friday. With six of his seven career wins at the Curragh, he’s now 5lb below his last winning mark and worth keeping an eye on when back at his favourite track.
Divine Breath
Made it 2 from 4 with an impressive all-the-way win in a Chelmsford handicap (7f) in a quick time. Despite an expected hike in weights, this unexposed filly is capable of better, and her performance was bordering on Listed class on the all-weather.
Patontheback
Gained his first turf success at Catterick (7f) on Saturday, previously winning only on the all-weather. Benefiting from a good start and a favorable draw, he relished the good to firm ground. Likely to be nudged up in weights, he can win again on quick ground most likely at Catterick.
Tuesday Racing Preview
Salisbury
5:07 –Fillies' Handicap – 1m 2f
Elladonna: The top-weight seemed to benefit from the application of a first-time hood and a more patient ride when winning at Nottingham three weeks ago. Up 5lb but remains a strong contender with William Buick staying in the saddle.
Xiomara: Was 1 ½ lengths second to Elladonna at Nottingham and gets a 4lb pull in the weights. Could turn the tables with a bit of improvement.
Pratigya: Could be on a good mark on handicap debut and must be respected, especially given her unexposed status.
Alhattan: Trained by George Boughey, wasn't disgraced on turf debut when finishing 2 lengths 6th of 12 at Newmarket last month. This track will suit her better than Newmarket, and she’s likely capable of better given her yard's form. Boughey has a good record at Salisbury, with 5 wins from 18 runners in the past 5 years.
The solid pick is Elladonna but I’m joining the hot trainer train and going with Alhattan.
Alhattan – 5/1.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John