Hi all,
In today’s main piece, I’m previewing the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park—a winter mid-week treat for punters. Plus, as promised, I’ll be sharing three ante-post bets inspired by Sunday’s action at Windsor.
Here’s what I sent out to Victor Value subscribers on Tuesday.
Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Bets
It’s been a quiet start to the week on the punting front, but I’m likely to have a couple of selections from Gowran Park on Thursday.
For now, I wanted to share a few ante-post bets inspired by Sunday’s action at the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor.
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
Jingko Blue – 33/1 @ Ladbrokes
Jingko Blue maintained his perfect start over fences, making it 2-2 when landing Sunday’s Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase.
Admittedly, there are some caveats. He only faced two rivals, and a bad mistake from leader Lowry’s Bar three out helped him. Nevertheless, he remains an exciting novice chaser with further improvement to come.
However, Jingko Blue doesn’t currently hold an entry for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (he can still be supplemented). He’s also likely to contest the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase next month at Ascot, which hasn’t been a strong trial for the Brown Advisory in recent years. The last horse to win both races in the same year was O'Faolains Boy in 2014.
That said, trainer Nicky Henderson has won the Brown Advisory three times since 2012, and if Jingko Blue wins the Reynoldstown and is supplemented, the current 33/1 could look very generous. This is a speculative punt, so tread carefully.
Ryanair Chase
Protektorat – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Betfred
Protektorat bounced back in style with an impressive victory in Sunday’s Fitzdares Fleur de Lys Chase. His bold, front-running performance and slick jumping made for an easy success.
He’s firmly on course to defend his Ryanair Chase crown, and while the potential presence of Fact To File or Il Est Francais could make this a tougher renewal than 12 months, both have other options. Protektorat is a proven contender and is only targeting this race. At 10/1, he’s worth backing.
Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Jubilee Alpha – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
The Dawn Run wasn’t a race I expected to get involved with, but Jubilee Alpha’s victory in Sunday’s Class 2 Mares’ Hurdle caught my eye.
Now 2-3 over hurdles, she showed a nice turn of foot admittedly on a speed-favouring track. While she’s yet to tackle an undulating course like Cheltenham, I don’t think the track will pose a problem. Paul Nicholls has a good chance with this mare in what looks a winnable race, and at 8/1, she’s a solid ante-post option.
Summary
Protektorat and Jubilee Alpha are both strong recommendations for their respective races.
Jingko Blue is a more speculative bet given his lack of an entry but offers significant rewards if supplemented.
Thursday Racing
Nicky Henderson splashed out €1.4 million to secure German Derby winner Palladium, and the colt makes his eagerly anticipated hurdle debut in the 12:47 Maiden Hurdle at Huntingdon. He’s expected to go off a strong odds-on favourite and should make a winning start over timber.
Gowran Park
This afternoon’s card at Gowran Park looks strong. Alongside the feature Goffs Thyestes Chase, we’ve got the Grade 2 John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle (2:13), which has attracted a field of ten runners.
2:48 – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f
A maximum field of 18 lines up for what promises to be a fiercely competitive renewal of the Gowran Park feature.
Key Trends
Looking at the trends which contain 16 winners from 283 runners.Over the past 16 years, 15 winners from 168 runners have matched the following trends:
OR vs. Race Average: Rated between 15lbs higher and 7lbs lower than the race average (this year: 138).
Maximum Distance Won: Between 2m 2½f and 3m 2½f.
Days Since Run: Between 16 and 75 days.
Applying these trends narrows the field to nine qualifiers, cutting it in half.
Notable Omissions
Two leading fancies, Where It All Began and Yeah Man, fail to meet the trends. Where It All Began won over 3m 3f last season, while Yeah Man’s last success came over 3m 4½f. Horses with wins beyond 3m 2½f are 0 from 40 (8 placed).
Other runners 16/1 & under in the ante post betting who fall short include:
Will Do – Yet to win over fences (1 winner from 19 runners).
Bushmans Pass – Returns from a 306-day layoff (those back after 76+ days absence: 0 from 17).
Of course, the sample sizes are small so all four of the above can win.
Of course, the sample sizes are small so all four of the above can win.
My focus is on the nine qualifiers. For my final selections in the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase, click here.
Stay tuned for all the action and insights in Friday’s column.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John