Hi all,
Inside today's main piece you can ready my thoughts on today's Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase.
I was left with some egg on my face on Tuesday after Gaye Legacy (11/2) won the mares handicap hurdle on the card. I fancied her chances as I mentioned in the race preview. However, I decided not to have a bet in the race because I was unconvinced by her jockey Ben Poste.
Now some pundits don’t care who the jockey is and don’t factor it into their calculations. Ben had a Timeform Ran to Form % of 28% coming into Tuesday race which is poor and for that reason I decided not to bet on Gaye Legacy. On the plus side the other horse I mentioned for the race Don’t Really Know (14/1) ridden by Harry Cobden finished runner-up.
Do I regret not having a bet in the race? No! I’m even more wary of out of form jockeys than trainers.
Cheltenham Trials Day
The upcoming Cheltenham Festival is gradually revealing likely favourites and race targets. A pivotal piece of this puzzle falls into place this Saturday, as Cheltenham hosts it annual Trials Day
It wouldn’t be wise to think that this meeting is a mere precursor to the Festival in March. There is plenty of prize money on offer on an eight-race card and many connections will see Saturday’s races as good ones to win in their own right.
As a predictor of Festival winners, this meeting has had varying success over the years. Some Trial’s Days have proven more insightful than others. Last year’s just two Trials Day runners from 31 runners went onto success in March: Stage Star and Energumene. In 2022 just Coole Cody ran at the meeting and subsequently went on to success at that season’s Festival.
Looking at some more general meeting stats. Since 2017 – 77% of winners from 49% of the total runners had finished first or second on their last start or were having their first start in Britain & Ireland.
If you had backed all the qualifiers, you would have made +168.8 profit to BSP. Nothing earth shattering there, and I wouldn’t recommend backing all those qualifiers blindly. However, it does show that its plus if a horse is coming into the meeting with good recent form.
Goffs Thyestes Day Preview
A midweek treat for punters today with the valuable Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (2:50) being run at Gowran Park this afternoon. Eighteen were declared for the feature race and it looks as tricky a puzzle to solve as ever.
The undercard includes Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle (2:15) which sees the seasonal return of Monkfish. The formerly smart chaser/hurdler had just two starts last season after returning from a 713-day break with his best performance coming in the first them.
Monkfish faces just five rivals, and they include likely favourite Thedevilscoachman and Farouk D'alene. Both the latter pair are set to race in the first time cheekpieces and have strong claims.
The ground at Gowran Park was described as heavy on Wednesday afternoon so stamina will be at a premium.
2:50 – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f
Dunboyne was a short head second in last year race and was a solid 4th of 20 in the Troytwon Handicap Chase at Navan on his seasonal return. He’s not always the most reliable of horses but has strong claims once more.
I would also give a good chance to one of Dunboyne’s stablemates Fakir D'alene. He was third in the Troytown before being bought down at the fifth in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown. Danny Gilligan takes off a handy 5lb.
Stormy Judge caught the eye when 5th of 20 over hurdles at Leopardstown over Christmas. This is the 9-year-old’s first start over fences since pulling up in the 2022 Scottish Grand National (13/2 Co fav). I think he’s on a good mark and will like the testing ground. He’s been well backed in the last few days.
Henry De Bromhead saddles a couple of live contenders in Aint That A Shame and Shantreusse. The first named pulled up in the Troytown (8/1) last time. He goes well in the mud and he’s better than he was able to show last time. Rachel Blackmore seemingly favours him over Shantreusse but I wouldn’t be quick to rule out the latter. The 8-year-old hasn’t fulfilled his potential over fences, but he ran well over an inadequate 2m 4 ½ f on his seasonal return and mark of 133 looks workable.
Glengouly looks the pick of the Willie Mullins runners. A good second at Limerick on his seasonal reappearance. He takes a big step up in trip here but is very much unexposed over 3m+. I wouldn’t rule out stablemate Ontheropes. He was off the track for nearly two years before pulling in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last time and will be sharper here.
Goffs Troytown Handicap Chase Verdict:
A cracker of a race and real winter warmer. It’s a race where you could easily have a three-pronged attack. Dunboyne, Fakir D'alene and Stormy Judge were my three early fancies for the race, and they remain high on my shortlist. Albeit, I have missed the big prices on Stormy Judge. The Henry De Bromhead pair of Aint That A Shame and Shantreusse are hard to split and they both have claims.
Huntingdon
There’s a fair card at Huntingdon. The Listed Pertemps Network Lady Protectress Mares' Chase (3.10) is the highlight of a seven-race card which also hosts a competitive Pertemps Hurdle Series qualifier (3:45).
Connections of White Rhino will be hoping that they can qualify the 8-year-old for the series final at the Festival. However, they seem to have landed on the most competitive qualifier we’ve seen this season. Steal A March didn’t get competitive on seasonal reappearance over 2m 4f but better ground and return to 3m 1f will see the 9-year-old in a much better light.
Irish challenger Brides Hill is a short-priced favourite for the mares’ chase. The 7-year-old looked better than ever when making it two from two this season when landing a mares’ only handicap chase at Fairyhouse last month. She’s fine on a sounder surface and is the one to beat. Her trainer Gavin Cromwell is 0-27 in the last 14 days which is a slight concern if you're taking short odds about her. Pink Legend looks her biggest rival on official ratings, but she might prefer further than 2m 4f. Lady Adare won a Worcester novice on her chase debut and then finished runner-up to Knappers Hill in a Grade 2 at Wincanton. Shaped like something was amiss when pulling up at Exeter just 9 days ago. Each way claims if she bounces back to her Wincanton form.
Thursday Selection:
Monkfish was tempting on seasonal return in the Galmoy Hurdle given how well he ran first time up last year. Whilst I respect the claims of improving staying handicap hurdler White Rhino in the Pertemps qualifier at Huntingdon my preference is for Steal A March who is back on better ground and up to a more suitable distance.
Huntingdon
3:45 – Steal A March – 15/2 or bigger.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John