Hi all,
Both Goodwood and Galway are now in full swing.
The Group 1 Sussex Sakes (3:35) is the highlight of a seven race card at Goodwood. The undercard also features two Group 3 contests the Oak Tree Stakes (2:25) and the Molecomb Stakes (3:00).
If you aren’t a Racing TV subscriber, you can watch the best of the Goodwood action on a four race ITV programme.
Over at Galway its day three of its marathon festival. The highlight of a seven race card is the race the Tote Galway Plate (6:40). Not only is the race of the highlight of the Galway Festival but with €159,300 on offer to the winner it’s also the best jumps handicap you will see out outside the winter season.
More rain was expected at Goodwood on Tuesday evening and night. As ever the possible amounts seem to change every six hours and now half as much is forecast as on Tuesday morning. So how much we get is in the lap of the weather gods.
Magical Marquand
Yesterday’s Group 1 Goodwood Cup went the way of Quickthorn. It was a great front running ride from jockey Tom Marquand. He just built up the pace and was by halfway was well clear of rivals and not for catching. By the time the other jockey realised he wasn’t stopping coming to two out it was all too late.
It was the same tactics that the jockey had employed on the horse to win the Lonsdale Cup at York’s Ebor Festival. Clearly the other jockey’s had forgot as they sat too far of the pace and allowed him to get away. There was a great finish for second which Emily Dickinson just snatched on the nod.
Yes, a great ride from Marquand but the less said the better about the rides given by Osin Murphy and Ryan Moore.
Anyway, on to Wednesday’s action.
Tote Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) – 2m 6 ½ f
I’m not going to preview the contest in any detail here, but I have looked at some of the trends for the last 15 renewals of the race.
7-year-olds have the best record with – 7 winners from 61 runners +17.5, 19 placed performing 37% better than market expectations.
All seven winners were returned 16/1 & under and had run within the previous 90 days – 7 winners from 31 runners +47.5 12 placed.
Nine of the last 15 winners of the race had never won on the prevailing ground – 9 winners from 115 runners +8.75. 23 placed.
Interestingly, or maybe not, all nine winners had also never won at the track or distance.
Who knows how well the trends will fare this year but one thing we do know we can expect an exciting and competitive with a maximum field off 22 set to line up.
Likely favourite Kilcruit is a borderline Grade1 chaser, and this race has been the target since he made all to win a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Solid claims but I’m not sure he wants really testing ground in this company. Stablemate Ciel De Neige has a chance if he jumps with more fluency.
Like the favourite Visionarian might prefer a sounder surface. However, he’s one who I’ve had in mind for a strongly run handicap.
Add in a couple of Gordon Elliott fancies in Fury Road and The Goffer and you have as a competitivea Galway Plate as we’ve had in recent years.
Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Just six were left in the Goodwood feature. Given there’s a million pound in guaranteed prize money it’s a very poor turnout.
It’s Paddington’s to lose
Those declared include hot favourite Paddington who drops back in trip after his recent success in the Coral Eclipse (1m 2f) at Sandown. The recent rain wont inconvenience the 2-year-old who should win.
Nine of the last 15 winners of the Sussex Stakes were 3-year-olds and if you focus on those 7/2 & under that had run in a Group 1 race you would have found 9 winners from 15 runners 60% +6.18, 11 placed.
Paddington’s nearest market rival is Inspiral. The filly was back to close to her best on seasonal return when a neck 2nd of 12 to Triple Time in Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s a serious rival to the favourite on her day but although she handles good to soft, softer underfoot condition would be a worry.
That leaves Aldaary and French challenger Facteur Cheval to fight it out for the minor money and maybe grab second if Inspiral fails to fire.
Aldaary has got some smart back form on testing ground, albeit below Group 1 level. The 5-year-old hasn’t been at his best on two starts since returning from 14 month absence the ground is soft its worth connections rolling the dice given the prize money on offer.
Facteur Cheval has won five of his 10 career starts with his biggest victory coming in a Group 3 on heavy ground at Saint-Cloud last October. He hasn’t added to his win record on three starts this season but was a head 3rd of 6 to Anmaat in the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp in May. He does need to settle better than he did last time to give Paddington a race.
Goodwood Micro Angle Qualifiers
If you’re interested in the qualifiers for last week’s Goodwood micro angle they can be found below. Three of them have appeared on my shortlist for their respective races.
4:45 – Never Ending
4.45 – Sirona
5:20 – Classic.
5.20 – Darkness.
That’s me done, all that’s left is to leave you with a selection for Wednesday.
Wednesday Selection:
I’m going for a swing at one at big odds today.
Goodwood
2:25 – French challenger Sicilian Defense gained a second Listed race success when successful at Longchamp over 7f in May. She has winning form on testing ground and it's worth remembering that she was a 2 ½ length 7th of 15 in last season’s French 1,000 Guineas. Stall 15 isn’t ideal over this trip, but she looks overpriced at 20/1 & bigger.
Sicilian Defense – 28/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places).
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John