Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the best of Friday evening’s action at Newcastle with a preview of the Gosforth Park Cup.
The challenge posed by 16 + runner handicaps is a tough one for punters. Today’s handicaps are much more condensed than they used to be with just a few pounds difference in the top dozen and not much given away to the lighter weights.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago in this column. The key is to free yourself from the fear of backing two or three horses in such a race if it leads to a profit. That’s why when I see tipsters and bloggers putting up one selection from these races, I know they cannot seriously be trying to make a profit for themselves or their followers.
Strategic Betting: Managing Risk in Large-Field Handicaps
Let me illustrate what I mean, apologies in advance if you have seen me write it in the past,
Let’s assume you have selected a race where the winner should come from one of three horses and you want to know what, if any profit, can be taken.
There are various ways to back several horses in one race, the most practicable for smaller punters is to stake for a return of say £100 for each race.
Add together the stakes required at the odds available about each horse.
The odds on offer are perhaps 2-1, 5-1, 9-1, which would work out for me as.
£34+£17+£11 – Total Stake = £62.
Whichever of the three horses win I will make a £38 profit
This is an acceptable margin for me, but you must decide the percentage below which you would not bet.
If I was betting level stakes of say £20 on each selection and the 2/1 horse won, I would just break even in the race. Of course, if the 9/1 selection prevailed, I would have a return of £200 or a £140 profit on the race. That’s the downside of the variable stakes approach to the race. Level stakes may offer larger profits in races where higher odds selections win. However, this comes with the increased risk of breaking even or losing more frequently in races where lower odds selections win.
Conclusion
Given these factors, your long-term success with either approach depends on your risk tolerance, betting discipline, and the accuracy of your selections. For most casual punters, the variable stakes approach may provide a more stable and manageable betting experience due to its focus on consistent small profits and lower risk per race.
However, it’s important to understand that backing a loser from time to time is inevitable. The key is to play the game with as much in your favour as possible. This involves careful calculation, strategic selection, and a commitment to the chosen method.
Whichever approach you take—variable stakes or level stakes—maintaining discipline and sticking to your strategy is crucial, even if short-term results are not favourable. Consistency and adherence to your strategy will ultimately determine your long-term success in betting.
Friday's Racing
The best of Friday’s racing is at Newcastle for the second day of its Northumberland Plate meeting.
Newcastle
There’s £50,000 in guaranteed prize money for this evenings Gosforth Park Cup (5:25) which has attracted a maximum field of 14 runners. However, the most valuable race on an eight race card is the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies' Stakes (6.00) which has £65,000 in prize money.
5:25 – Gosforth Park Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Vintage Clarets won this race last year off a 5lb lower mark, marking one of his four wins over 5f during a productive 2023. Although he needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs, he’s 1-1 on the all-weather and remains unexposed on synthetic surfaces. His stablemate, Monsieur Kodi, is 0-5 on the all-weather and may perform better over an extra furlong. Nevertheless, he’s not handicapped out of this and shouldn’t be ruled out.
Prince Of Zenda has two wins from five runs this year, including a victory here over 6f in January. He finished runner-up over 6f two starts back and showed he remains in form with a 3-length 4th of 9 at Chester over 7f last month. Dropping back to 5f for the first time could suit him well.
Copper Knight may be 10 years old, but he demonstrated he still has his old speed by beating ten rivals at Chester 13 days ago. He won this race in 2018 and was runner-up the following year. Given his current form, he must be considered a strong contender.
Project Dante is perhaps the most intriguing of the 14 runners. He won at York on his racecourse debut in May 2021 and then finished a fast-finishing ¼ length 3rd of 15 in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes (5f) at Royal Ascot. Although he hasn't come close to that form in five subsequent starts, he has switched yards (under the same owner) since his last run 656 days ago. Making his all-weather debut, he has something to prove in terms of well-being, but with Silvestre De Sousa booked, first time up could be the ideal time to catch him.
6:00 – Hoppings Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3) – 1m 2f
Chic Colombine was a four-time winner last season, including a win here over 7f. She made a winning reappearance in a Listed race at Saint Cloud in March before being outclassed in the French 1,000 Guineas. Last time out, she looked an unlucky loser in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom. Stepping up to 1m 2f for the first time, she should stay the distance and looks to have strong claims.
Friday Selection:
Newcastle
6:00 – Chic Colombine.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John