Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm previewing Saturday's Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster.
Saturday promises an excellent day of racing with Trial's Day at Cheltenham—the final meeting at the home of National Hunt racing before the Festival. The star attraction is Constitution Hill, likely to feature in the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle (3:00) following his Christmas Hurdle triumph at Kempton. He may clash again with Lossiemouth, last year’s winner and runner-up in the Christmas Hurdle.
The Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (12:40) could see Triumph Hurdle second-favourite East India Dock in action. This is one of five Grade 2 races on Cheltenham’s seven-race card, which also features the £100,000 Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1:50).
Over at Doncaster, there are two Grade 2 races and the day’s other headline event, the £100,000 Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3:15). ITV Racing will broadcast five races from Cheltenham and three from Doncaster, making for an eight-race programme.
Let’s dive into the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, which takes the spotlight in my big race preview today!
Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Doncaster
The Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, inaugurated in 1948, is a three-mile staying chase steeped in history. For two decades until 2023, the race was sponsored by Sky Bet and commonly referred to as the Sky Bet Handicap Chase. Previously a Listed race, it was reclassified as a Premier Handicap starting with the 2023 renewal, adding further prestige to the event.
Key Trends Overview:
For trends enthusiasts, this race offers a few angles to explore. Since 2009, it has seen 13 winners from 180 runners, with 41 horses placing.
Runs at the Distance
The sweet spot lies with horses that have 2 to 3 prior runs over 3 miles. These boast:
9 winners from 58 runners (+92.5 points profit).
19 placed.
A strong A/E (Actual/Expected) ratio of 1.58, indicating better-than-expected performance.
Horses with 0 to 1 run at the trip have underperformed:
1 winner from 61 runners (-44 points loss).
10 placed.
A poor A/E ratio of 0.19, with 5 winners expected based on market pricing.
Weight Carried
Top weights have done well:
2 winners from 15 runners (+8 points profit).
3 placed.
Strong A/E of 1.42.
The weight sweet spot is horses carrying 10lb to 16lb below the top weight:
This group has been the most productive, delivering a significant portion of winners with a strong A/E.
Trends Verdict:
For shortlisting, focus on:
Horses carrying 10lb to 16lb below top weight or the top weight itself.
Runners with 2 to 12 prior runs at three miles.
Combining these trends yields an excellent success rate:
10 of the last 13 winners came from just 41 runners meeting these criteria.
This analytical approach should help narrow the field and highlight strong contenders in this competitive staying handicap.
Wide-Open Great Yorkshire Chase Showdown
Twenty-three remain in contention after Monday’s final confirmation stage. Here’s a look at some of the key market contenders for Saturday’s feature.
The Changing Man
The ante-post favourite, available at 6/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes, has finished second in two valuable three-mile handicap chases. While he wouldn’t be winning a race like this out of turn, a 7lb rise without a win could leave him vulnerable.
Forward Plan
Last year’s nose runner-up followed up with a valuable Kempton win. Now 5lb above his last winning mark, he showed he could still compete off this mark when third to Charlie Uberalles over C&D last time. Softer ground and a 3lb pull in weights could see him reverse that form.
Ga Law
Top weight and the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup winner at Cheltenham, Ga Law is proven at this level. He was still in contention when falling at the last in this race two years ago. While he wouldn’t want soft ground, I think he stays three miles and commands respect.
Tightenourbelts
A progressive 8-year-old with back-to-back wins at Exeter and Ludlow, the latter a commanding effort. An 8lb rise makes life harder, but he’s an improving type going the right way.
Docpickedme
Split Charlie Uberalles and Forward Plan last time over C&D. While not guaranteed to replicate that form, his 25/1 price with Bet365 looks generous and he can hit the frame.
Other Contenders
Dashel Drasher: Not the force of old but easing down the weights.
Brave Kingdom: Encouraging comeback when third at Newbury (3m 2f) last month; the drop back in trip looks a plus.
Famous Bridge: Needs testing ground but stays well and can’t be discounted if conditions suit.
Verdict
Forward Plan has a solid chance of going one better than last year, especially on softer ground. However, Docpickedme offers value at current odds, and Brave Kingdom looks poised to improve on his seasonal return. Top weight Ga Law is a big contender if the rain stays away. It’s shaping up to be a cracking renewal!
In Thursday’s column, I’ll preview some quality racing at Gowran Park. The highlights are the valuable Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (2:48) and the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle (2:13), two standout contests that promise plenty of mid-week excitement.
For those expecting my three Cheltenham Festival ante post selections. I didn’t have the space to put them into today’s column, but they’ll be Thursday’s.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John