Hi all,
Before I dive into Saturday’s BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3:45) at Newbury, here’s a quick look at how some leading NH trainers fare with handicappers returning from a 180+ day layoff.
Handicap Returnees: Which Trainers to Back and Oppose After a Layoff
The following analysis covers the last three seasons.
Gordon Elliott
One standout stat: Elliott’s record with handicap chasers returning from a 181+ day layoff is poor. Not one has won, despite expected wins suggesting he should have had at least four.
By contrast, his handicap hurdlers perform much better, with an A/E (Actual vs. Expected) of 1.89.
Conclusion: Elliott’s hurdlers can be backed after a break, but his chase returnees are best avoided.
Willie Mullins
Mullins hasn’t had as many handicappers returning from a layoff as Elliott, but the trend is similar. His handicap hurdlers run to form, while his handicap chasers struggle.
In fact, you must go back to December 2022 to find his last handicap chase winner off a layoff.
Conclusion: Hurdlers fare okay, but his returning chasers are worth opposing.
Dan Skelton
Unlike Elliott, there’s no difference between Skelton’s hurdlers and chasers—both provide no value for punters.
Conclusion: Laying Skelton’s handicap runners returning from a break has been a profitable strategy.
Paul Nicholls
Nicholls’ record isn’t as bad as Skelton’s, but it’s also not as strong as you might expect.
His handicap hurdlers perform better than his chase returnees, with the latter providing a fair return for layers.
Conclusion: Be cautious backing his chasers first time out after a break.
Lucinda Russell
Russell’s record with handicap returnees off a 180+ day layoff has been poor, making them a layer’s dream.
Conclusion: Avoid backing her handicappers fresh.
Trainers with Strong Handicap Chase Records After a Layoff
To end on a positive note, there are a couple of trainers whose handicap chasers tend to be ready to win after a 181+ day layoff. Their horses are usually fit and primed for their return runs.
Final Thoughts
While these stats may not be immediately useful so late in the jumps season, they could prove valuable if you spot any Cheltenham Festival runners coming off a break. Keep them handy for next jumps season, too.
After Cheltenham, I’ll revisit this topic by analysing Flat trainers’ records with handicappers returning from a long layoff—which should be useful in the early months of the new season.
Newbury: BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2m 4f)
Unlike yesterday’s Morebattle Handicap Hurdle we’ve had 15 running’s of the race and 168 runners, so we have something to work with on the trends front. Here are some of the key race trends.
Age: 9 yr old – 0 winners from 36 runners, 7 places.
Odds SP: 20/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 28 runners, 5 places.
Days Since Last Run: 45+ – 2 winners from 58 runners -40.5, 11 places A/E = 0.33.
Last Run Placing: Not 1st – 1 winner from 33 runners – 25.5, 5 places A/E = 0.24.
This Year’s Greatwood Gold Cup
Twenty-one remain at the five-day stage. The ground was soft on Tuesday, but with a drying trend, we’re likely looking at good to soft come race day.
Like Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle, this could be a fascinating contest. I’ve been busy focusing on Cheltenham’s handicap weights, which were published on Tuesday, so I haven’t done a deep dive yet.
Contenders:
Billytherealbigred – Recent Cheltenham runner-up, progressive and the sponsor’s 5/1 favourite.
Iroko – Second favourite but seems more likely to head to Kelso, depending on the ground.
Kandoo Kid – Boasts Newbury form figures of 2121, winning the Coral Gold Cup (3m 2f) in November. The Grand National is his main target, and while the drop in trip is a concern, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race.
Vincenzo – A last-time-out winner, which is a negative on the trends. However, 2-3 over fences and looked like he needed a step up to 2m 4f last time. Going the right way.
Scarface – Below par at Ascot last time but well suited to 2m 4f and going left-handed. He’s dropped to just 1lb above his last winning mark and would be a contender on drying ground.
Martator – Interesting at 20/1 (William Hill). A C&D winner, won by 11 lengths at Ascot in November and is only 7lb higher here. Hasn’t fired in his last three, but back at Newbury on decent ground, he could bounce back. Venetia Williams is 12 winners from 31 runners (39%) with handicap chasers up to 2m 4f at Newbury since 2016.
Midnight River – Caught the eye at Cheltenham last time and is now 6lb below his last winning mark. From last year’s winning yard (Dan Skelton), the 10-year-old looks to be being primed for a valuable handicap chase pot in the spring. Like Martator, he looks a big price at around 20/1.
If you want my final weekend previews and picks, you can get them here.
Thursday Racing
A poor day for me at Wetherby on Wednesday with two seconds and two still running. I thought Gavin Sheehan was going to produce Rockola Vogue to win the concluding mares handicap hurdle. But she got the last wrong and she was never going to catch the winner. Indeed her jumping in truth wasn’t good enough at crucial points in the race.
The day's most valuable race is Ludlow’s Forbra Gold Cup (4:20). Only five go to post, with Sacre Coeur looking the most likely winner. The mare looked better than ever when winning here (2m 4f) just eight days ago, jumping well out in front and scoring by nine lengths.
A 7lb penalty won’t stop her if she’s in the same form after a quick turnaround, and she seems likely to get her own way in front again.
Good luck with your Thursday bets!
John