Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I preview the valuable sprint handicap at Windsor this evening.
Grim weather and a poor week for your humble pundit. Monday & Tuesday were profitable, but it went downhill from then onwards. In truth I think I tended to overthink things too much and I just seemed to get the going and the draw wrong.
Plenty of my selections, particularly early in the week, ran well. Sadly, there were too many poor picks for my liking.
The big name tipsters like Paul Kealy who had poor Royal Ascot & Newmarket July Festival’s bounced back to have a good meeting. I made profits at both those meetings and lost here. It’s just the way things go in this game.
I was putting up selections that some big name tipsters also picked a day later so I wasn’t alone in my thinking which I saw as reassuring. The problem was where Kealy and I agreed they were his losing selections.
It just wasn’t my week. Twelve months ago, I made a 17pts profit this week I ended up losing 24 pts. On a personal level a losing week or month doesn’t concern me. It’s just another step to a winning one. However, I do feel bad for those who have lost money this week following my advice. That’s why it’s essential you have a long term perspective and money lost will be returned in the coming months.
Roll on York’s Ebor Festival with nicer weather and please, better ground.
Sumo’s Too Strong
The rain kept falling at Goodwood on Saturday and it was as grim as it gets. It wasn’t Pimms and champagne weather that’s for sure, more mulled wine and Bovril.
Sumo Sam got an inspired front running ride from Tom Marquand to win the Group 2 Lilly Langtry Stakes.
Bred to stay 2m+ Sumo Sam was ridden for stamina, and it never looked like would be caught. Marquand gradually increased the pace four out and she stayed on too strongly for her seven rivals. She could the perfect set up of deep ground and an uncontested lead. Two things she might not get again. Still the 3-year-old must be as tough as nails to have won in the manner she did on what was bottomless ground.
Odds on favourite Free Wind was the class horse of the race but with doubts about heavy ground. A little keen in the rear in the early part of the race. She came with promising enough run 3f out to take second, but she quickly emptied out on the deep ground and ended up a well beaten fourth.
Runner-up River Of Stars made her effort at the same time as the favourite and whilst she stayed on better of that pair she never looked like she would catch the leader and was 8 ½ lengths down at the finish.
Stewards Gold
Aberama Gold was travelling better than anything and could be called the winner when taking it up 1f. You never know how much they will find when put under pressure, on ground like this, but he kept on well enough to hold off Apollo Gold by ¾ length.
You have to feel sorry for Apollo Gold. Runner-up in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and second again in a valuable sprint handicap. He got a good tow into the race and beat all those who raced near side.
Bielsa ran on down the near side to snatch fourth from a back to form Mr Wagyu. Bielsa has got quirks which were in evidence once more but he’s talented and capable on his day.
Watch out for Mr Wagyu at the Curragh next month
Mr Wagyu led the group that raced down the centre and ran a cracker to finish fourth but was no match for the winner. He’ll go for a handicap at the Curragh where he was a ½ length third and will be 9lb lower this time around.
Aleezdancer beat all those that raced far side and if had been down the centre might well have given the winner plenty to think about. The return to deeper ground suited the 4-year-old and if he gets softish ground, he’ll be one of the leading fancies for next month’s Ayr Gold Cup.
The favourite Orazio switched from the far side group to race down the centre. Not that it mattered as he was struggling 1f out and finished well beaten. The 4-year-old was proven on soft ground, but this sort of ground wasn’t to his liking.
Significantly was plenty keen enough out in front in the near side group and probably found 6f on deep ground too much stamina wise. He wasn’t beaten far and remains on a competitive mark.
Albasheer my ante post pick didn’t appreciate, as I feared, the heavy ground. He’s not one to give up on and back on a sounder surface is handicapped to win a nice pot.
I was pleased with my three race selections: Mr Wagyu, Aleezdancer and Significantly who finished 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively.
The race proved to be the last of this year’s Qatar Goodwood Festival as the race of the card was abandoned due to worsening track conditions. I just wished it had finished on Tuesday evening.
Monday Preview
After just eleven ran in the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race. You have to wonder if there is any point to it continuing. Especially as the valuable Fitzdares Sprint Series Final over the same distance takes place at Windsor just two days later.
These consolation races seemed a good idea at the time, but we have already lost the Silver Cambridgeshire and surely the same fate now awaits the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race. Apart from Ayr’s Bronze & Silver Cups which are oversubscribed the other consolation races just aren’t working.
There just aren’t enough 6f handicappers of the right grade around to run in similar races at Goodwood and two days later at Windsor. Add in a similar 6f handicap at the Racing League fixture on Thursday and racing planning makes no sense.
Windsor
Fifteen have been declared for this year’s renewal of the Fitzdares Sprint Series Final Handicap (7:30) and it’s that race that comes under the microscope.
7:30 – As there’s £75,000 guaranteed prize money it’s not surprising we’ve got a competitive sized field. Given the nature of the race there are plenty in here with C&D form.
Last year’s winner Cuban Breeze is back to retain her crown and can race off the same mark as 12 months ago. However, it was good to firm last year and her best form has come on a sounder surface.
Treacherous was fourth last year and a short head runner-up in 2021. Comes into the race in good form. He was just touched off over C&D two starts back and a 2 ¾ length 4th of 19 at York 9 days ago. Course & distance really suits but ground is likely to be plenty soft enough for the 9-year-old.
Crazy Luck was only beaten a neck over C&D (heavy) in May but hasn’t been at her best on her last two starts including at Goodwood 5 days ago. She’s 1lb below her last winning mark and is handicapped to win when all the cards fall right.
Haymaker looked a handicap sprinter on the up when winning over C&D in May and hasn’t been disgraced on either start since. All his three career wins have come on good or quicker, but he’s does have form on soft. Tom Marquand 1-1 on the 4-year-old is back in the saddle. And the jockey's record when combining with trainer Hughie Morrison is 12 winners from 44 runners 27% +43 in the past two years. If there is a horse in the line-up who is capable of better than they have shown its Haymaker.
Verdict:
Not the most imaginative of selections given he’s the bookies early bird favourite. But Haymaker is my idea of the winner. The 5/1 or bigger are odds are worth taking as he’s likely to go off shorter. Crazy Luck is handicapped to win again when everything goes her way and might be worth a saver.
In tomorrow’s column I’m going to conclude my look back at last week’s big race action. Plus, there’ll be a few horses from Goodwood for the tracker.
Haymaker – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & William Hill.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John
Last week was unfortunately my first time with Victor Value, and while it was an expensive one I noticed that on reading through the thoughts for each race a lot of times, you just selected the wrong horse.
Look at what a bad 2 months Hugh Taylor had, and he has stormed back in the last few days, as youy say it happens to everyone now and again.
Thanks for trying.
Hi Ted,
Many thanks for those kind words they are much appreciated.
I mentioned in a previous column that Hugh Taylor would bounce back sooner rather than later and he did. As did Paul Kealy who had a cracking week after a torrid month.
John