Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking ahead to the weekend’s racing… or am I?
Let’s hope we avoid another going description fiasco like last Saturday at Uttoxeter. The Midlands Grand National, won by mud lover Mr Vango, reignited the debate over official going descriptions—rightly highlighted by Tony Calvin here.
Uttoxeter’s official going was listed as good to soft, but on times, the chase course was soft at best—bordering on heavy. Anyone betting before racing was essentially put away. I know Clerks of Courses are under financial pressure to maximise field sizes, but punters deserve better. As Tony points out, there was no transparency about how much water had been put down, and clearly, it was too much.
I’m not against winter watering, but punters need to know the extent of it. How many would have backed Mr Vango if they’d known the ground was much softer than advertised?
Paddock Insights: What Stood Out at Cheltenham
I wasn’t planning to write any more on the Cheltenham Festival, but I wanted to share a few final thoughts.
A friend who was at Cheltenham this year had never seen Galopin Des Champs in the flesh and was surprised by how unimpressive he looked physically compared to Inothewayurthinkin. He also noted that Jimmy Du Seuil, Myretown, and Putyourhandstogether all stood out in the paddock before their races. On the downside he also said a couple of my selections didn’t catch the eye in the paddock.
Paddock watching is often called a ‘dark art,’ but it can help spot winners and help avoid backing losers. I’ll be making good use of his eye for detail at this year’s Flat festivals which I’ll hopefully be sharing with subscribers.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Friday sees the start of the three-day Ladbrokes ‘Go North’ Finals Weekend at Musselburgh.
On Saturday, ITV heads to Kelso for four races on day two of the ‘Go North’ Finals. They’ll also cover three from Newbury, which hosts its final jumps fixture of the season, plus one from Bangor-On-Dee.
The weekend wraps up on Sunday with the last three ‘Go North’ Finals at Carlisle. Meanwhile, Naas hosts more Flat action as the Irish Flat new season maintains its momentum.
After the intensity of Cheltenham, it’s no surprise this weekend’s action is a step down in quality. That said, there will still be competitive racing and no doubt good betting opportunities. However, nothing has really caught my eye just yet—I’ll take a closer look once final declarations are in.
Wednesday Racing: Haydock: Taking a Chance on Amateur
Haydock stages a seven-race jumps card, with the feature being the Tim Molony Handicap Chase (4.25).
The Haydock going is officially listed as good, good to soft in places. However, the BHA website showed a going stick reading of 5.8 on Tuesday lunchtime, which suggests it’s softer than the clerk’s description.
That said, with dry weather ahead and no overnight watering, it should be a bit quicker by race time. The forecast good ground has also impacted declarations, with just 40 horses set to run across the seven races.
4:25 – Tim Molony Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 4½f
Haydock winner Wal Buck’s is a short-priced favourite and looks every bit a stayer. He’ll be a popular choice, but his best form has come on softer ground. I’m taking a chance on one of the likely outsiders—Amateur.
Let’s address the negatives first. He’s a 12-year-old with form figures of PPPP5 since winning at Ffos Las last May. His small yard is also on a barren run—18 runners and 172 days without a winner.
Now the positives. He’s back to his last winning mark, stays 3m 4f, enjoys decent ground, and crucially, his best form comes in April & May (4 wins from 6 starts, +31 profit). At his age, he might have lost his enthusiasm, but I’ll take a chance here—and possibly again in his next run, which could be the Ffos Las race he won last year. The better the ground, the better Amateur’s chance, but he’ll be fine on good to soft
In the run-up to the Festival, I spent far too much time glued to my laptop or phone, writing columns and previews six days a week. It takes a lot of time and effort, and after a while, mental fatigue creeps in. Sometimes, the words just don’t flow, and enthusiasm dips.
Cheltenham prep was my perfect excuse to avoid jobs around the house and garden, but that ‘get out of jail’ card has expired!
I’m taking a break from writing tomorrow but will be back on Friday to preview the opening day of ‘Go North’ Finals Weekend at Musselburgh.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John