How Much is Too Much Interference

Hello everyone,

Inside today’s piece I’m going to discuss a couple of races at Goodwood yesterday and give a preview of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket.

Goodwood Recap

If anyone watched the 1.50pm at Goodwood yesterday, I’d like to hear some views. I backed Mister Rizz, so there is some element of pocket talking here. However, the horses entered the straight on the far side, slightly towards centre. They finished the race on the stands rail. Royal Playwright and Oisin Murphy pushed Mister Rizz and Kieran Shoemark the entire way across the track, for the entirety of the straight. It looked to me like intimidation at it’s finest.

While it was a smart ride by Murphy, Mister Rizz never got a chance. He could never have got passed. The stewards were never going to reverse the result, but Shoemark stopped riding in the last 100 yards which didn’t help matters. The only way it could have been worse is if Murphy put Shoemark through the rail.

It’s a strange one. The winner was comfortably on top at the line, but it wasn’t a fair race before that. But it was smart race riding. Would Mister Rizz have won without the interference? It would have been close, but I can’t say he definitely would have. There is pocket talk on my behalf, but I do think there’s a case to be made.

In the 3.35pm, I thought Okeechobee got a slightly confusing ride. They didn’t go quick and he was sat at the back of the field, which didn’t help. But he was last off the bridle and looked to be coming with a challenge. But he wasn’t particularly hard ridden and he didn’t finish the race off that well.

I was happy turning into the straight, but the lack of early pace did for him. I won’t be giving up on him on autumn ground that’s for sure.

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting

The ground is currently good, good to firm in places. There isn’t any rain forecast until Saturday night, so fast ground looks like it’ll stay.

Thursday

The first group race of the meeting is at 3.35pm for the two year olds. Distant Storm heads the market and his maiden form has worked out exceptionally well. He was far too keen in the Acomb and better is definitely expected here. That being said, he’s a short price in a strong race. 

Catullus is a nice horse but he was comfortably behind his aforementioned stablemate on debut. Archer Royal beat more experienced rivals easily on his debut at Chelmsford and is more of an unknown. 

Northern Champion is unbeaten and could be anything while Wechaad has continued to progress. This is a race I can’t have a bet in, but it’ll be an informative watch.

The Rose Bowl at 4.10pm and Palladium is a strong favourite. In the main he’s been disappointing since coming over to England. It was his first start since being gelded when he won a race at Salisbury last time. But that is a race he should have won as all his rivals were far inferior. The same can be said about a lot of today’s rivals.

Live Your Dream is a fascinating runner here for Saeed Bin Suroor. He’s been off the track since September 2023, but the fact he’s coming back as an 8 year old means he must be showing plenty. He likes fast ground and his form is rock solid, especially his Ebor third behind Absurde and Sweet William. I think he’s worth a bet with chinks in Palladium’s armour.

Friday

Loads of pattern races to get stuck into on Friday, so I’ll just highlight my key thoughts.

The Princess Royal Stakes is at 1.50pm and I think it’s very hard to get away from Spirited Style. Her form has worked out well with her stablemate Silent Love. She’s already beaten a few of these and has the most potential.

Touleen puts her unbeaten record on the line in the Rockfel at 2.25pm. It’s hard not to be impressed by what she’s done so far, she’s been faultless. She appears to have everything and anything odds against is probably a fair price. It’s boring, but I’d be surprised if she was beaten.

If there’s one at a price in the race it could be Awaken. She was weak in the market and never in the race on bad ground from a bad draw at Salisbury last time. Her Albany form on quick ground gives her a shout here.

The Joel Stakes is next at 3pm and I think Opera Ballo has been picking off easy opportunities. He’s won a couple of listed races with relative ease, but I don’t think he’s good enough to be an odds on shot here.

I think Zeus Olympios could be anything. He’s won all three starts and beat a competitive, more experienced field in a Group 3 at Haydock last time. Absolutely smashed in the betting that day, connections knew what they had. I think he’s an exciting prospect and there is no way there should be this kind of price disparity between him and Opera Ballo.

How By The Book is favourite in the 3.35pm I don’t know. He’s been impressive in two starts, yes. But they were in novice races in 2023 and 2024. This is a proper field and his price is horrendous. I’ve not got a bet in the race yet, but I know it won’t be him that’s for sure.

Saturday

The Royal Lodge gets the Group 1 card underway at 1.50pm. The one who I think offers value here is Ancient Egypt. He showed massive improvement from when he won on his debut at Beverley to winning under a penalty at Goodwood. There is a lot to like from his temperament to the way he hits the line. I think he’s a nice horse and with the hype around the likes of Bow Echo and Action, I think he’ll offer value and I’ll be backing him.

Royal Fixation has done nothing wrong to date and is the worthy favourite in the Cheveley Park at 2.25pm. Her price is about right but I’d be fearful if True Love was to run. She had a blip against the boys last time, but she’s never been out of the top 2 and is a class act.

There is substance to Wise Approach’s form and he’s the right favourite in the Middle Park. But a horse I wouldn’t rule out at a price is Havana Hurricane. He is a dependable two-year-old who has only encountered fast ground once, which resulted in a Royal Ascot win in the Windsor Castle. I think he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame.

Summary

I hope there is some useful information in there and while I don’t have bets in all the races mentioned, I’m going to highlight the horses I’ll definitely be backing at Newmarket.

Live Your Dream – 4.10pm Thursday

Spirited Style – 1.50pm Friday

Zeus Olympios – 3pm Friday

Ancient Egypt – 1.50pm Saturday

Havana Hurricane – 3pm Saturday

John is back tomorrow so that’s all from me. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading!