Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at Saturday’s Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot. It’s the first of two Premier Handicaps on the Ascot card. I covered the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle in yesterday’s column.
Festive Edge: Simple Angles, Big Winners
If you subscribe to the On Course Profits email, you may have noticed a couple of things yesterday.
First, I recently outlined some simple rules for narrowing down handicap hurdles. The method continues to find winners. Interestingly, one reader pointed out that when three or four qualifiers line up in the same race, he’s been backing them in combination forecasts — with some very tasty results.
That’s great to hear. I’m not usually a forecast punter myself, but I’d also noticed a steady flow of winning forecasts using the basic approach.
It’s encouraging to see readers taking the framework and making it work for them. You don’t often get something this simple, effective, and free. This handicap hurdle method is one of those rare cases.
The email also mentioned my Christmas Special.
There’s a huge amount of top-quality racing coming up over the festive period. Much of it live on ITV. Ascot. Kempton. Wetherby. Leopardstown and Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
If you want my previews and selections from this Saturday right through to Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, you can get the full festive package for less than £20.
I know many readers don’t want a monthly subscription. They just want coverage for the big meetings. The races that matter most. That’s exactly why I put this together. It covers all the key meetings. The major handicaps. The Grade 1s. Across both sides of the Irish Sea.
If you want a clear edge during the busiest and often most profitable period of the jumps season, this is the time to get involved.
You can get my Christmas Special here.
Stop Press: Mighty Bandit (3/1) at Newbury and Final Night (16/1) at Kempton gave subscribers a cracking profit yesterday.
Ascot: Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase
As ever, I’ll begin with a quick look at the trends, which cover 14 winners from 152 runners.
All bar one of the last 14 winners met the following basic criteria.
The sole exception was Valtor (2018), who was making his debut for Nicky Henderson after racing in France.
Additional trends
Digging deeper, runners coming from Newbury last time out have produced 6 winners from 29 runners (21%, +28.5, A/E 1.53). By contrast, those returning from Ascot are just 1 from 25 (A/E 0.33).
Horses with more than 13 chase starts are 1 from 40 (A/E 0.31).
Runners who had not won on the prevailing going have fared well, producing 11 winners from 55 (20%, +84, A/E 1.69).
Contenders
Fifteen were left at Monday’s final confirmation stage. Final declarations are out this morning, so that number is likely to come down.
Blow Your Wad
Heads the ante-post betting. He was a solid third, beaten three lengths by Henry’s Friend, in a C&D handicap last time. The form is sound, but a last-time-out run at Ascot is a small trends negative.
Victtorino
Four from 5 at Ascot and has won the last two running’s of this race. His most recent C&D success came in February, and he runs off the same mark here. He needs to bounce back from a poor Newbury run, but his course record demands respect.
Pic Roc
Lost all chance with a poor start in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He did well to finish fifth and, with a level break, might have finished runner-up. He has big claims if lining up. Stablemate Henry’s Friend was well beaten at Cheltenham last Friday, but that track may not suit him. Before that, he won a C&D handicap with Blow Your Wad third, beaten three lengths. Blow Your Wad is now 3lb better off. Ben Jones is booked for Henry’s Friend, while Pic Roc is currently without a jockey.
Johnnywho
Needed the run and wanted further when fifth, beaten eight lengths, in the Grand Sefton over 2m5f. He has a big handicap in him over three miles plus, but his jumping remains a concern. Big player if today is the day which given connections who knows.
Deep Cave
Won a Bangor handicap chase over three miles on soft ground last time. He’s 4lb higher now but remains unexposed over fences and capable of better in the sphere. Further rain would enhance his chance.
Leave Of Absence
Disappointed at Cheltenham on testing ground last time. Prior to that, he won a novice chase there on good ground. A hurdle winner at Ascot, his best form has come on a sound surface. He could bounce back if conditions remain good, but further rain would be a worry.
Threeunderthrufive
A C&D winner and has placed on his two other Ascot starts. He was third to Victtorino in this race last year and beaten a nose by the same rival in February. He’s now 3lb better off. Likely to have needed his Wincanton return and looks a shade overpriced around 16/1.
Thursday Preview
Chelmsford
With £20,616 on offer, the Timeform Sprint Series Final (7:30) is Thursday’s most valuable race. Unsurprisingly, it has attracted a full field of 14. It’s a cracking prize for fairly modest sprint handicappers and a competitive puzzle. You can make a case for plenty of these.
Mesaafi, a C&D winner, ran to form when fourth at Kempton last time. He’s eased another 1lb and should be in the mix again.
Existent went close to ending a long losing run when beaten a short head over C&D 22 days ago. He’s now 48 runs without a win, but if he’s in the same form as last time, he’s well treated.
Stablemate Cherry Cobbler proved his stamina for 6f when a ¾-length third over C&D two starts back. He wasn’t disgraced when fifth back at 5f last time but just lacked the pace. The return to 6f looks a plus and the 3yo can win a handicap off 75. Stall 4 looks another positive.
8:00 – Uncle Don made late headway off a steady pace when a one-length fourth of 10 at Lingfield 15 days ago. He’s been dropped 1lb and drops a notch in class here. The forecast stronger pace should suit and the 3yo looks close to landing a handicap.
Exeter
2:00 – Gyenyame shaped as though he wanted a stiffer stamina test when a 2½-length 2nd of 8 over C&D 41 days ago. The step up to 3m suited and his jumping was better than on previous chase starts. He’s capable of going close for a yard that remains among the winners.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John