Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my preview of the weekend’s action.
Looking ahead to the weekend
Warwick
The ITV cameras are covering four races from Newbury and three races from Warwick on Saturday afternoon. As I mentioned yesterday the likelihood of quick ground at the former venue means the races, the Betfair Hurdle apart, are likely to produce small fields.
Warwick’s Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novice Chase Day is the second most valuable meeting of its season. Twelve months ago, two horses used this meeting as springboard to success at the Cheltenham Festival.
Edwardstone won last year’s Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices' Chase before going onto win the Arkle at Cheltenham. Just five were left in the Kingmaker at Monday’s final confirmation stage.
The ante post betting is headed by Jonbon. He’ll be long odds on to maintain his unbeaten record over fences on Saturday. Likely to face just a couple of rivals and it’s hard to see him being beaten.
Recent Doncaster Grade 2 winner Tommy’s Oscar and recent C&D winner Haddex Des Obeaux could line-up against him. The former will like the drying ground. Whilst the latter is an exciting front running and bold jumping novice who is going the right way. He also has an entry in Newbury’s Game Spirit Chase and I’m hoping he goes for that race.
Marie’s Rock also won the Listed Virgin Bet Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (2:05) before going onto success in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Love Envoi will be a hot favourite for this year’s race. The 7-year-old has won this season’s starts and is one of the leading fancies for next month’s Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Newbury
Denman Chase
I previewed the Betfair Hurdle in yesterday’s column. Today I’m taking a quick dive into the Denman Chase (2:25).
Hitman who pulled up in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day has been put in as the 15/8 early bird favourite for the race. I have to say I’m surprised. I would have last year’s winner Eldorado Allen as market leader.
Hitman still must prove he stays 3m for me. And there remains the question: What will the 7-year-old find in a close finish? He wouldn’t be for me at less that 3/1.
Eldorado Allen hasn’t won since winning this race 12 months ago. However, he’s been racing in contests that he’s had little chance in winning. He finished fourth in the King George VI last time and I think he can win this for a second year running. The 100/30 that was available with Coral & Ladbrokes about Eldorado Allen looked the value bet to me but that price has now gone. And he's now a best priced 5/2.
Kalashnikov needed his first run for 22 months when 6th of 11 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. He was third in the race two years ago and isn’t without chance. Although he also has an entry in the 2m 4f handicap chase at Warwick (1:30).
Zanza has plenty to find on Official Ratings, but he loves Newbury (4-5), has winning form on good ground and can’t be totally dismissed.
Game Spirit Chase
Eight were left in the Game Spirit at Monday’s final confirmation stage. We can expect a small field for Saturday’s race. Indeed since 2010 just 60 horses have run in the race. Looking at the trends. Those returned 9/2 & bigger are – 0 winners from 33 runners 5 placed.
Greaneteen no match for Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase last time will be short odds to win this Grade 2 contest. Especially with Jonbon likely to head to Warwick.
Last year’s winner Funambule Sivola looks to be Greaneteen’s biggest rival. He hasn’t been in the same level of form on three starts this year, but this has likely been the plan.
Of the rest I’m hoping that progressive novice chaser Haddex Des Obeaux comes here rather than go for the Kingmaker. The generally available 10/1 appeals but will he come here or go to Warwick? Looking at those odds it looks like Warwick.
Malystic bounced back to winning ways at Wetherby over Christmas and followed up at Doncaster 15-days ago. He made light of 12-0 in a good handicap chase last time and is worthy of his place in Graded company.
Thursday racing
There are jumps cards at Huntingdon, Doncaster, Ffos Las and Thurles this afternoon. And the day’s action concludes with an evening all-weather fixture at Newcastle.
Huntingdon
The day’s feature race is the Listed Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon (3:00).
Rare Edition the shortest priced English trained runner in the Supreme Novices Hurdle betting is expected to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles. His biggest rival looks to be Persian Time, trained by Nicky Henderson, who made a winning hurdle debut at Ascot in November.
In an open looking Supreme I think Rare Edition has, I believe, been underestimated in the betting. He’s been underestimated for two reasons he trained by Charlie Longsdon and he’s not Irish. Still available at 12/1 with Betfair Sportsbook. He would half those odds if he was trained by a Nicholls or a Henderson. An impressive win today will see those odds cut.
The most valuable handicap of the day is also at Huntingdon and its attracted a decent sized field.
4:10 – Winvic Construction Handicap Hurdle
Bourbali has placed on his last two starts including when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 15 to Grey Dawning at Kempton last time. Up 2lb for that effort but is a useful handicap hurdler on a sound surface.
Dan Skelton has couple of contenders In Too Friendly & West Cork. The former has finished runner-up on his last two starts. Fifth of 21 in last season’s Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and reproduction of his best form would see him go close.
West Cork is back over the smaller obstacles after four runs over fences this season. A high class handicap hurdler. He won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle last season. And arguable ran even better when a 5 ¼ length 4th of 26 to State Man in the County Hurdle and a 1 length 2nd of 8 to Anna Bunina in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr last April. Now 3lb below his Ayr mark and could go close if back to his best.
Hydroplane, a winner at Chester on the level last June is back down to his last winning hurdles mark. The 7-year-old returned from a six month absence with a solid enough effort when 3rd of 9 at Kempton last month. That run should have blown away the cobwebs for a return to hurdling and he’s one to seriously consider.
Thursday selection:
Huntingdon
4:10 – Hydroplane – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John