Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking at Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown from a trends perspective. Plus, there are more Cheltenham Festival stats.
In Tuesday’s column, I discussed my approach to the Cheltenham Festival, but some readers wanted further clarification on what I meant by Balancing Value & Winners.
Normally, if I think a horse is a 6/1 chance, I’d want 15/2 to make it a bet. However, at Cheltenham, I’m happy to take 6/1, though I wouldn’t back it at 5/1.
It’s about being willing to take fair odds rather than chasing bigger value odds.
Cheltenham Festival Stats
Yesterday, I looked at trainers who do well with first-time headgear at the Festival.
Today, I’m focusing on how the first three in the betting have fared over the last 10 years.
Position In Odds Market: First Three
They’ve performed well, showing a BSP profit of £39.81 (ROI +4.96%). But there’s a more profitable angle—focusing on those who finished outside the first four last time out.
These qualifiers have delivered a profit at both Industry SP and BFSP. The win and place strike rate is strong at 55%, and each-way backers would have made an SP profit of +81.95. Arguably even more importantly we have strong A/E and Chi figures.
Breakdown By Year:
Only two losing seasons. Limited qualifiers—just seven in 2024, but four won. I’ll be keeping a close eye on any qualifiers.
👉 Get My Cheltenham Pass – All my Cheltenham Festival race previews and picks for just £19.99 here.
More Cheltenham Festival stats to come tomorrow!
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Sandown: Betfair Imperial Cup
First run in 1907, the Imperial Cup was once one of the most prestigious handicap hurdles in the calendar, often attracting top-class hurdlers before the expansion of Cheltenham’s programme.
A notable incentive for runners is the bonus scheme often offered by sponsors. The Imperial Cup has a £100,000 bonus available to the connections of the winner if the same horse goes on to follow up with a victory at the Cheltenham Festival. Horses such as Olympian (1993), Blowing Wind (1998) and Gaspara (2007), have pulled off the Imperial Cup/ Cheltenham Festival Double.
Imperial Cup Ten Year Trends
On the face of it a good race for the trends. All the last ten winners met the following trends.
✔ Age: 5yo to 8yo
✔ Official Rating: 126 to 135
✔ Wins at the Track: 0 – (Course winners are 0 winners from 29 runners, 6 places)
✔ Hurdle Wins: 1 & 3 – (0 winners from 36 runners, 6 places outside that trend).
Additionally, nine of the last 10 winners beat 50% of their rivals and their latest start. The only one not to do so was Ebony Express (2015) who was brought down two out in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He was going well enough that day to think he would have also met that trend if he had stood up.
Trends Verdict: Famous last words butthe 10 year trends look robust enough to think they are going to be worth noting again this year.
Imperial Cup Contenders
A total of 28 entries have been made for this historic and valuable handicap hurdle, with £51,440 going to the winner.
Lump Sum heads the sponsors betting at 5/1 (as of Monday). He was second to Joyeuse in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Newbury and has strong claims. However, his mark of 147 leaves him vulnerable to better-handicapped rivals.
Willie Mullins could send over Batman Girac, who also holds a County Hurdle entry at Cheltenham. He was staying on when falling at the last at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Wreckless Eric the sponsors' second favourite on Monday. Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, he ticks plenty of trends boxes and needs respect. However, the yards runners in the Morebattle Hurdle ran poorly.
Bo Zenith will appreciate a strong pace, as he’s probably better over further, which could bring out the best in him.
Just Ennemi is 2-3 over hurdles in France and makes his UK debut for Harry Derham. However, his form is untested in this context, and he’ll be ridden by David Maxwell, which means he’ll need plenty in hand.
Last year’s winner Go Dante is 2lb lower than when landing the race 12 months ago. He’s well-handicapped but needs soft ground, and he fails the hurdle wins/course win trends.
Spirits Bay was third to Constitution Hill last time, which flatters his form, but he still fits key trends. Stablemate Norman Fletcher also meets the trends. Yard won this in 2016 & 2018, it’s last two runners in the race.
Irish challenger To Chase A Dream is another strong trends contender, with Brian Hughes already booked.
Welsh Charger produced a career-best RPR when making it 6-11 over hurdles at Musselburgh. He enjoys decent ground and has likeable claims.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John