Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I am previewing Saturday’s Moet & Chandon International Handicap at Ascot.
Ascot: Moet & Chandon International Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Maybe I’m reading Saturday’s International Handicap (3:00) all wrong — and given my current form, that might well be the case — but I think on paper it’s less competitive than the mile handicap that follows at 3:35.
Before today’s final declarations, I had just seven on my shortlist for the 3:00, compared to eleven for the tougher-looking contest 35 minutes later.
My seven for the International Handicap are:
Aalto, Akkadian Thunder, last year’s winner Northern Express, Sword, Lord Bertie, Glenfinnan, and Oliver Show. Of those, Lord Bertie and Oliver Show would ideally want ground no quicker than good, which could be a factor depending on how the surface rides.
The last ten winners of the race met the following four trends.
International Handicap Contenders
Aalto was 9th in this race last year’s International Handicap, beaten just over two lengths off a 1lb higher mark. He arrives on the back of a nose second in the Bunbury Cup and is now 1lb lower. At 6/1, he has a favourites’ chance and looks a shade of value at those odds.
I tipped Northern Express at 22/1 when he won this last year for Victor Value subscribers. He returns off a 3lb lower mark despite running reasonably well this season. I’m not sure why the handicapper has been so generous — 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes looks too big and he won’t be that price on Saturday. His stablemate Glenfinnan is also worth a second look. He’s a C&D winner and now 5lb lower than when scoring at Sandown last summer.
David O’Meara has three with chances: Akkadian Thunder, Sword, and Lord Bertie.
Akkadian Thunder didn’t get the rub of the green in the Bunbury Cup, racing without away from the main action. But his second in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over C&D is a better guide — that form would give him solid claims.
Sword won at Leicester three starts ago and was unlucky not to finish second at York last time, denied a run a furlong out. A stiff 7f and strong pace could be just what he needs. I think there’s more to come from him.
Lord Bertie has shaped well on quick ground the last twice, but his best form came with plenty of ease in the ground for his previous yard. He’s one to note if the rain arrives.
Finally, Oliver Show was runner-up in the Lincoln but disappointed in the Buckingham Palace. The ground may have been too lively at Royal Ascot. Softer conditions would give him a chance.
Thursday Racing
There’s a big day ahead at Sandown, Leopardstown, and even Yarmouth. Yes, Yarmouth. The Racing League returns this evening, and while it’s not usually my thing, I’m getting involved. Two from my future winners list are in action, so I’ll take an interest. The two are Jer Batt (7:40) and Who’s Glen (8:10).
Jer Batt is down in class, goes well with ease in the ground and is nicely treated on his best form.
Who’s Glen has been shaping like he needs further than today’s 1m 6f but his sole win came last autumn on heavy ground over around this distance at Chester. The easing ground will being his stamina into play and he’s got a chance.
Over at Leopardstown, the evening card includes a pair of Group 3s for juveniles. The Silver Flash Stakes (6:27) and the Tyros Stakes (6:57) have produced plenty of smart types in recent years including future Derby & Oaks winners.
Leopardstown
Balantina was third behind the smart Venetian Sun in the Group 3 Albany at Royal Ascot and will be a warm order in the Silver Flash Stakes. She has strong form, no doubt. But she’s untested on soft ground. At the prices, I’d rather side with Skydance. She finished third behind Beautify at the Curragh last time. I really like the winner – I’ve backed her for next year’s 1,000 Guineas. Skydance showed promise that day and looks the value against the favourite.
Sandown
Sandown stages a six-race card this afternoon with the Listed Star Stakes (3:20) the highlight. Inspiral won it in 2021. Ollie Sangster has taken the last two renewals, and he might complete the hat-trick. His filly Hayynah has finished runner-up on both starts so far. She looks primed for this assignment and should go close.
We’ve got a big day ahead at all three venues. Plenty of angles to work with, and the juvenile contests should throw up some future winners.
Thursday Selection
My dip into a Class 5 handicap didn’t pay off. Wilderness ran like a 50/1 shot – because she was. These things happen. As I said yesterday, my tips could come with a government wealth warning right now.
Still, there’s a big day ahead, and I’m heading back up in class for Thursday’s free tip. I looked at Jer Batt and Who’s Glen, but the former’s yard is ice-cold, so I’ve passed.
Instead, I’m siding with Skydance in the Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown. She was third to Beautify at the Curragh and should go well again – especially with soft ground likely to suit.
Leopardstown
6:27 – Skydance
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John