Hi all,
It’s the biggest weekend of the year for Irish flat racing. Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing the two Irish Group 1’s live on ITV this afternoon.
Irish Champions Day at Leopardstown tomorrow and the Curragh on Sunday will provide high class action and betting opportunities. The racing this side of the Irish Sea isn’t too bad either with the highlight quality wise being Haydock’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup.
ITV Racing are covering no less than 10 races live from four courses this afternoon including the Leopardstown Group 1’s.
The summer weather is going to hold on for another day if the weather forecast is correct. It’s going to be dry at all the tracks on Saturday. Plenty of rain is forecast for the Curragh on Sunday so that’s something to keep an eye on especially as they have been watering the track extensively.
Before I look at the Leopardstown action. The big race of the weekend this side of the Irish Sea is the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup. I looked at the race in Wednesday’s column and I haven’t changed my thoughts on the race. Shaquille is the best 6f sprinter around and he wins. He’s won the Commonwealth Cup and July Cup despite doing everything wrong in his races.
There will be a time when he doesn’t get away with it. If it’s today, then the ones who can take advantage are Regional and Khaadem. I still think the latter is a good each way price at 25/1 with any bookies paying four places.
Leopardstown
I have had a look at the two Group 1’s being broadcast on ITV Racing this afternoon.
2:45 – Matron Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Dermot Weld has a strong hand in the race with Tahiyra (6/5) and Homeless Songs (8/1). The first named won the Irish 1,000 Guineas and followed up in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. The one they all must beat if at her best here.
Homeless Songs won last year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas but didn’t’ really kick on two subsequent starts last season. Hasn’t been seen since finishing runner-up in a Listed race over C&D in April. Has run well fresh in the past and if she was at her very best would give her stablemate a race.
Meditate looks held by Tahiyra on their form earlier in the season. However, the Aidan O’Brien trained filly will appreciate the return to good ground after a poor run on soft ground at Deauville last time. Must be respected given connections and for the fitting of the first time blinkers.
Zarinsk is a three time winner at Leopardstown including a Group 2 success over 7f here last time. Respected at a venue that suits but stall 11 isn’t ideal for a front runner.
Matron Stakes Verdict:
I think Tahiyra has an even bigger performance in her and is the most likely winner. However, of stablemate Homeless Songs was back to last season’s she wouldn’t be far away and she can go well fresh.
3:20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Eight are set to line-up for the race of the weekend. Just 3lb separates the top six on RPR’s which underlines how competitive this renewal is.
We have the Epsom Derby first and second in Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel. The first named followed up in the Irish Derby but was a flop in the King George at Ascot last time. Should get the race run to suit with his stablemates Luxembourg & Point Lonsdale in the line-up. If he’s back to his best he’s got big claims and we know trainer Aidan O’Brien can bring them back.
King Of Steel followed up his Epsom Derby performance by winning a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and finishing 3rd of 10 in the King George at Ascot last time. The drop back to 1m 2f should be more in his favour and he should be bang there.
Alflaila has been supplemented for the race. The 4-year-old won a York Group 2 on his seasonal reappearance in July. He looks well worth his place in a Group 1 company for the first time and could make it a winning one.
Dual Group 1 winner Nashwa produced close to a career best when 1 length 2nd of 4 to stablemate Mostahdaf in the International Stakes at York 17 days ago. Big chance if she didn’t have to hard a race at York.
Luxembourg and Onesto first and second in last year’s race have to be respected.
Luxembourg was back to winning ways in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May. He got a good front running ride from Ryan Moore that day and Ryan opts for Auguste Rodin today. Not at his best on two starts since but can’t be totally dismissed.
Onesto has a great chance of going one place better than 12 months ago. The 4-year-old ran a cracker on his belated seasonal reappearance when a 3 ½ length 4th of 11 to Inspiral in the Group 1 Jacques le Marois (1m) over an inadequate trip a Deauville last month.
Irish Champions Stakes Verdict:
Would I be surprised if Auguste Rodin was to bounce back to winning ways? No. That said I can’t trust him as a bet. Although six of these could win. At the prices I’m looking at Alflaila and Onesto.
Saturday Selection:
Leopardstown
3:20 – Onesto – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power.
I will be doing a Sunday column this week covering the best of the action at the Curragh.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John