Hi all,
It’s the final day of Glorious Goodwood and if the weather forecasters are right the weather is going to be anything but glorious. Mind you I’m hoping the rain does arrive as I have big fancy in the Stewards Cup who needs genuinely soft ground.
ITV are covering four races from Goodwood and two from Newmarket this afternoon. Inside today’s main piece you can read a few of my thoughts on the best of the Goodwood action.
Old Favourites Return to Winning Ways
Highfield Princess returned to winning ways in Fridays’ Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes. She had too much pace and class for her rivals and ran out a comfortable winner.
As I mentioned in Friday’s column as she’s got older, she’s got quicker. She will make a bold bid to retain her Nunthorpe crown at York later this month.
Hamish overcame a slow early pace to win the Group 3 Glorious Stakes. The further they went the stronger he looked and ultimately this was a comfortable success by the 7-year-old.
Next month’s Irish St Leger in which he was runner-up to Kyprios 12 months ago will be next up. He needs softish ground to be at his best, but he probably won’t come up against a Kyprios in this year’s race.
The highlight of the final day of the festival is the cavalry charge known as Coral Stewards' Cup (3:35).
The Stewards Cup might be the big betting race of the weekend, but the most valuable race is the Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (3:00). There’s £170,130 on offer to the winner of this Group 2 contest for fillies & mares run over 1m 6f.
Coral Stewards' Cup
The Stewards Cup has been run on soft ground just three time since 2008.
Now the sample sizes are small but looking at the draw by segment. It may well pay to look for horses that are drawn high towards the stand side. This week there’s a been a draw bias towards those who could get to the stands rail on the straight course.
It will be interesting to see if the field split into two or three groups. Most of the pace in this year’s races seems to be drawn down the middle and there could be plenty of it.
Mr Wagyu (14) is likely to be prominent down the middle along with the likes of Watchya (13), in the first time blinkers, Lucky Man (12) and Aberama Gold (15).
Down the stands rail the normally running Significantly (28), will likely lead prominent racers Apollo One (27) and Bielsa (26).
If a big group of runners do go down the far rail, they’re likely to be led by Hyperfocus (4) who seems set to go to the front. Ante post favourite Orazio (6) will be hoping that the field splits into two groups. One that goes far side and another group that heads to the stands side.
For what’s it worth I think horses drawn middle to high will be on the best of the ground. That brings in to play Mr Wagyu, Significantly and Apollo One.
I tipped up Albasheer ante post in the column at 16/1 after his run at the Curragh. I hope he can win but soft ground is a concern, and I won’t be putting him up today.
Looking further into the race trends
Since 2008 horses that had 2+ runs at Goodwood are – 0 winners from 123 runners, 14 placed. Horses with just 1 previous win at the track are – 3 winners from 17 runners +21.5, 3 placed.
Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes
Eight fillies and mares have been declared.
Free Wind looked set for a good season when winning the Group 2 Middleton Stakes (1m 2 ½ f) at York in May. However, she ran a lifeless race behind Pyledriver in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Has a question to answer after that run and although she’s the class horse of the field she’s plenty short enough in the betting and is worth taking on.
River Of Stars is next in the ante post betting. The 4-year-old looked much improved when winning a Group 3 at York over today’s distance on her seasonal reappearance in May and backed that effort in defeat when a ¾ length 2nd of 7 in a Group 2 at Longchamp 22 days ago.
Luisa Casati had race fitness on her side when beating Time Lock a lengthina Listed race (1m 4f) here in May. The form was reversed in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last time when Time Lock finished a length and one place of her old rival. Both are capable of better for the step up to 1m 6f. In particular, Luisa Casati who goes really well on soft ground. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Time Lock yet. However, at their respective odds it’s Luisa Casati who I want to be with.
Verdict: If Free Wind isn’t at her best then Luisa Casati looks like the one who can take advantage.
Saturday Selection:
Goodwood
3:00 – Luisa Casati – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John