Hi all,
Today’s main piece focuses on Saturday’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.
Newcastle: JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap
Saturday’s Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate — known affectionately as the “Pitmen's Derby” — was first run in 1833. The race earned its nickname thanks to its popularity among the North East’s coal miners, who once flocked to the track in their thousands.
Now the centrepiece of a three-day festival, the Plate is more than a race — it’s a historic cultural event, rooted in the region’s industrial past.
Since switching from turf to Tapeta in 2016, it’s become a key fixture on the all-weather calendar.
Key Trends (Since Switch to Tapeta)
Since the change in surface there have been 9 winners from 176 runners and some solid and reliable stats have emerged.
No winners from horses sent off 11/1 or bigger on their most recent start (0-86, 9 places).
All 9 winners finished in the first four last time out and all were 33/1 or shorter.
Eight of the last 9 winners had 0–1 previous Tapeta wins.
Contenders:
Onesmoothoperator – Last year’s winner. Now 12lb higher but thrives off a strong pace and still makes the shortlist despite his weight rise.
Who's Glen – Eyecatching fifth in the Chester Cup and ante-post favourite. He went into the tracker after his Chester run. Solid claims but short enough in the betting at 6/1 for me.
Too Bossy For Us & Pappano – Both now with Willie Mullins. Pappano 2-2 on Tapeta when trained by the Gosden’s and looks the more appealing of the pair but they have been well found by the odds compilers.
East India Dock – Won the Chester Cup two starts back and ran just as well when sixth at Royal Ascot 11 days ago. If the Ascot run didn’t take too much out of him, he’s a big player. James Doyle booked.
Golden Rules – Has had his training issues, just the nine career starts. He finished a ½-length runner-up in this race in 2023 and is now 4lb lower. Back from another short break but he goes well fresh, and this will have been the plan.
Zanndabad – From the Tony Martin yard. Ran well when third in last year’s Chester Cup and shaped with promise on return earlier this month. Makes his all-weather debut but respected for a yard that kind of won the Plate consolation race 12 months ago.
Dancing In Paris – Didn’t get a clear run in the straight when narrowly beaten by subsequent Royal Ascot winner French Master at Goodwood last time. Not proven over 2m but weighted to be competitive if his stamina holds up
Duke Of Oxford – Well held in the Chester Cup last time but he’s better on the synthetic surfaces and ran well when third in this last year.
Verdict:
Most of my shortlisted runners fall down on the key trend last-time-out SP — except for Who’s Glen, East India Dock, and Dancing In Paris.
Of that trio, the one I like most is Dancing In Paris. At around 16/1, he looks overpriced and brings excellent recent form into the race.
Zanndabad shaped well on his return from a break earlier this month and if he runs to last season’s best form would have a chance.
And while he’s fragile, Golden Rules is another I’ll probably struggle to let go unbacked. The talent’s there — he just needs to show he’s retained most of his ability.
Thursday Racing
Newcastle kicks off its three-day Northumberland Plate Festival with a pair of competitive Class 2 handicaps. But the day’s most valuable race comes at Newmarket — the Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes (3:35).
I haven’t placed a bet since Saturday at Royal Ascot, and to be honest, hadn’t looked at a race since — until diving into Thursday’s main contests.
That changes today. I’ll be having a few bets — and if you want to know what I’m backing, you can find them here.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John