Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at Cheltenham’s November Meeting. Plus, there’s a look at a very decent Monday of racing.
Five Winners and No Nervous Breakdown – A Cheltenham November Miracle
I thought it was a good three days at Cheltenham. The rain arrived so it was proper winter jumping ground, albeit not as testing as it had promised to be. Whilst I think the three days lacked a bit of star quality it was an enjoyable watch.
From a betting point of view, it was fantastic. Five winners landed, including the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Greatwood Hurdle. It’s been a long time since I’ve enjoyed a festival that profitable. The handicap hurdle method I highlighted last week is working well and narrowing the focus makes a huge difference. Now I just need to find something similar for handicap chases. I’m working on a couple of ideas, one which trapped the first two home in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. If anything, promising emerges I’ll share it with readers.
Friday Fireworks: L’Eau du Sud and No Drama This End Shine
Jonbon failed to land a Shloer Chase hat-trick and was put firmly in his place by L'Eau du Sud. It was a winning start in open company for the smart novice, who looks to have done well over the summer. That said, he goes well fresh and was the only one to truly turn up on the day. Jonbon badly needed the run, and his jumping just wasn’t good enough.
A rematch could be on the cards in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown next month. With this run behind him, and back over a C&D where his form figures are 111112, Jonbon should get closer to L'Eau du Sud. That said I was impressed with L'Eau du Sud and I wouldn’t be confident that Jonbon can reverse placings with him over 2m. Of course Jonbon could land a third Tingle Creek if the ground isn’t too soft but this year’s line-up could be stronger.
The other highlight on Friday’s card came via the Paul Nicholls-trained No Drama This End in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. It was an impressive hurdling debut. He’s done very well physically over the summer, is capable of plenty more and is an exciting recruit to hurdling.
Nicholls said the gelding is likely to head for the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury a race he won with Hermes Allen who also landed Friday’s race.
The winner was cut into favouritism for both the Turners and the Albert Bartlett at the Festival. Yes, he was impressive and yes, he’s capable of better – but it was an overreaction. That said, I think he’ll prove a lot better than Hermes Allen.
Saturday: Dominant Mares Steal the Cheltenham Spotlight
The mares delivered Saturday’s standout performances.
July Flower jumped well to land the Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices' Chase. Coming to the last, it was between her and Be Aware. The latter battled all the way to the line, but the winner, receiving the mares’ allowance, proved too classy. Henry De Bromhead won this race in 2019 with Put The Kettle On, who went on to win the Arkle at the Festival. You would expect July Flower to follow a similar path. She’s a mare with a touch of class, and getting the allowance makes her one to respect going forward.
Panic Attack looked plotted for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Dan Skelton had a well-treated horse ready to strike. The plan, months in the making, came off perfectly. Once she took it up from runner-up Vincenzo at the last, she never looked like being caught. Vincenzo ran a good race in second and can land another handicap chase this season if he sharpens his jumping.
Dan Skelton also supplied the third home, Hoe Joly Smoke. A mistake two out probably cost him second, but he wouldn’t have beaten the winner.
Take nothing away from the winner but it was a poor renewal of this historic handicap chase.
Sean Bowen kept it simple on favourite Celestial Tune to win the Listed Mares’ bumper that closed Saturday’s card. She was always ideally positioned to take advantage of a modestly run race. It capped an excellent weekend for Irish trainer Thomas Cooper, who added Sunday’s Listed bumper with Saint Clovis.
Sunday Belongs to Alexei
Sunday’s card looked the weakest of the three days. Only the Greatwood Hurdle offering genuine star quality.
Protektorat ran a stormer under top weight of 12-0 in the 3m3½f handicap chase. He was always close to a strong pace and looked likely to fade once headed. To his credit, he rallied and his class kept him in it, eventually finishing a four-length third behind the more patiently ridden Marble Sands and Fascile Mode. The first two couldn’t live with the early strong pace but proved well suited by a marathon test. The trip opens options for both.
Progressive handicap hurdler Alexei followed up his recent Ascot win with a smart success in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. He looked well handicapped beforehand, with the only concern being the ground. However, conditions weren’t as testing as expected. Brendan Powell settled the well-backed favourite perfectly and delivered him to challenge Helnwein at the last. From there it was about how much he would find. He found plenty and powered away for an easy six-length success. He’ll rise sharply in the weights but he’s worth a shot at Graded company later in the season.
Helnwein, runner-up in the valuable Swinton Hurdle in May, ran a cracker on return but bumped into a very well-handicapped rival. He pulled clear of the third and would have been a good winner himself without Alexei in the line-up. It wasn’t the strongest Greatwood Hurdle, but the winner is going the right way.
Monday Preview
A bit of a Brucie Bonus for punters on Monday. Navan’s abandoned Saturday card has been swiftly rescheduled. One of the advantages of not racing every day in Ireland is that meetings like this can slot back in without major disruption.
Navan
The star attraction is the return of Champion Chaser Marine Nationale in the Grade 2 Bar One Racing Fortria Chase (2:45). We also see Yellow Clay reappear in the Lismullen Hurdle (2:10), and Kopek Des Bordes is expected to be long odds-on for his chase debut in the Beginners’ Chase (3:20).
Marine Nationale is the one they all have to beat, but giving smart mare Dinoblue 11lb on heavy ground is no easy task. He’s better on a sounder surface and could be vulnerable on his seasonal return. Last year’s winner Found A Fifty wasn’t himself when fourth in the Champion Chase at Down Royal. Dropping back in trip and facing more testing ground should draw out his proven stamina and bring him right into the mix.
Stop Press: Marine Nationale is now a non runner.
Earlier on the card, the 12:25 Handicap Hurdle (2m4f) looks competitive.
Club Manager was a strong second of 14 at Wexford 21 days ago. He’s up 2lb but still on a workable mark and could be ready to strike.
Bossing It shaped like a stayer when third at Galway over 2m½f last time. She returns from a 70-day break but has won fresh before. Soft ground is the question.
Themanintheboots bounced back when a close second at Ayr 16 days ago. A stamina test on soft ground suits and the first-time blinkers replace cheekpieces. If he repeats his latest run, he’s in each-way contender.
Exeter
Grade 1 winning juvenile Lulamba makes his debut over fences in the Beginners' Chase (2:00). The Nicky Henderson horses have been needing the run, but you would be disappointed if Lulamba couldn’t make a winning return to action.
3:00 – Top-weight Reallyntruthfully skipped Bangor last week because of soft ground, but looked good winning on chase debut at Fontwell. He sets a good standard.
That's Nice, 2-from-3 over hurdles, switches quickly to fences for Nicky Henderson and could be well treated off 126 if taking to chasing.
Winning hurdler U Cant Be Serious makes his chase debut and looks capable of scoring off 119 in handicap company.
Plumpton
2:20 – Nardaran has looked transformed since a summer break, winning here over 2m and at Sandown eight days ago. The form of the latest run isn’t spectacular, but he won with plenty in hand. A 7lb penalty won’t stop him landing the hat-trick.
Gold For Alec wasn’t suited by the drop to 2m½f when third at Cheltenham on his seasonal return last month. Back up to 2m4f and with soft ground probably preferred, he’s a player for a stable flying at present.
Listentoyourheart was in top form last autumn, winning three including a Listed novice hurdle at Newbury. She needed the run in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and wasn’t given a hard race. Drops in grade but must prove she sees out 2m4f against geldings.
Monday Selection
There are a couple of handicap hurdles on the Navan card, but neither race appealed. To be honest, I’m not sure if my method works across the Irish Sea, as I haven’t tested it yet.
I looked at the handicap hurdle at Plumpton. Nardaran and Gold For Alec made the shortlist, although Nardaran has been surprisingly weak in the overnight betting.
Exeter – 3:00
Reallyntruthfully
Tomorrow I’ll look back on Sunday and Monday’s action at Navan. Plus, there will be some future winners for the tracker.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John