Hi all,
On the eve of Newmarket’s July Festival, I am previewing Saturday’s Group 1 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup
Newmarket: Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup
Saturday’s Al Basti July Cup Stakes (4.35) is the highlight of Newmarket’s July Festival. It’s one of Europe's premier Group 1 sprint races and wi th £600,000 in guaranteed prize money making it one of the Europe’s most valuable sprint races.
First run in 1876, it received Group 1 status in 1978. Recent winners of the race include:
2024: Mill Stream
2023: Shaquille
2022: Alcohol Free
Trends
Looking at the last ten renewals of the July Cup which contain 130 runners some interesting patterns have emerged.
All ten winners met the following trends:
Age: 3yo or 4yo’s (0-52, 8 places for older horses)
Official Rating: 112+ (0-37, 3 places below 112)
Career Runs: Between 5 & 13 (0-61, 8 places outside that band)
Wins at the Track: 0 (previous course winners 0-26, 6 places).
July Cup Contenders & Value Verdict
It’s fair to say we’re not blessed with a vintage crop of sprinters in Britain and Ireland. So, it’s no surprise to see Notable Speech, last year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, supplemented for Saturday’s Group 1 July Cup. He’s one of 16 left in at Monday’s final entry stage and heads the market at 7/2.
If he can keep up with the early pace and gets his preferred good to firm ground, he’s very much the one to beat.
Flora Of Bermuda (5/1) was best of the home-trained runners when a 3½ lengths third to Lazzat in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. That followed a neck second to Inisherin at York. She’s reliable and game, and you’d expect another bold showing.
Inisherin (7/1) returns after a below-par effort in the Jubilee Stakes. A gutsy Group 2 winner at York, he finished fifth in this race last year. On a going day, he could easily bounce back.
Whistlejacket (7/1) represents Aidan O’Brien and bids to give him a record breaking sixth win in the race. He had excuses in the Commonwealth Cup, where he didn’t get the clearest of runs. He may prefer a bit of ease in the ground but looks capable of better.
Believing (8/1) is better than she showed in the King Charles III Stakes, where the draw did her no favours. She’s good enough to go close but is now a five-year-old and may be vulnerable to younger legs.
Big Mojo (16/1) is interesting at a price. Like Whistlejacket, he didn’t get a clear run when 7th in the Commonwealth Cup. He’s not far off the key ratings trend and has definite each-way appeal.
Verdict:
If you stick strictly to age and official rating trends, only Notable Speech, Inisherin, and Flora Of Bermuda qualify.
Notable Speech is a fair price at 7/2 and clearly the one to beat if the ground stays on the quick side.
Flora Of Bermuda is ultra-consistent and likely to hit the frame again.
Inisherin, if you forgive his last run, looks a bit of value at 7/1.
Whistlejacket and Big Mojo just fall just short of the ratings trend, but both are worth a second look. The former is a C&D winner but if one trainer can bust the trends it’s Aidan O’Brien. Big Mojo makes each way appeal and looks overpriced at 16/1.
Here are my fair odds for the leading contenders in this year’s July Cup.
In tomorrow’s column I’ll be looking at the best of the action on Day 1 of the July Festival.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John