Hi all,
Newmarket’s three-day July Festival kicks off at HQ this afternoon, with ITV Racing covering the first four races live. The broadcaster may be disappointed, though, with field sizes — all three Group races on today’s card have attracted just five runners apiece. Thankfully, the Class 2 sprint handicap has a healthy field of 18, offering some much-needed betting depth.
Only two races on a seven-race card feature more than eight runners, which is far from ideal for punters or bookmakers.
The day’s feature contests are:
2:25 – Group 2 Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes
3:35 – Group 2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes
I’ll be digging into those races plus the big-field handicap in today's main piece.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 1 Preview
I mentioned in Tuesday’s column to watch out for how much artificial watering had taken place on the July Course. Well, we know now — courtesy of the BHA website:
1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5f
I’m not convinced by the strength of the Queen’s Vase form, given the first six home were covered by just a length. Two from that race reoppose here: Furthur, who was second, and Scandinavia, who finished fifth.
You’d expect Furthur to be favourite based on the form, but the ante-post market has leaned towards Scandinavia. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, he wears first-time cheekpieces and could get an uncontested lead in a race lacking obvious pace. O’Brien’s record with runners coming from Royal Ascot to the July Course is solid — 8 winners from 30 runners (+11.67 level stakes profit).
However, if you fancy Further, I wouldn’t put you off given his yard is flying at present.
Nightime Dancer was a never-nearer 10-length 8th of 18 (at 100/1) behind Lambourn in the Derby. He shaped like the step up in trip would suit and could be the value play at 5/1 or bigger, though the likely steady pace is a concern.
2:25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
A quality renewal of this top juvenile contest, with four last-time-out winners lining up alongside the runner-up and fifth from the Coventry and Norfolk Stakes respectively.
Maximized was a decisive winner of the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom last time. The form has been boosted since, with the runner-up going on to win the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. The yard has a strong record at this meeting, and he looks a major player.
Brussels, trained by Aidan O’Brien, made a winning debut in a Cork maiden that has worked out well. He’s open to plenty of improvement and represents a yard that took this race in both 2019 and 2024. Could be dangerous if allowed to dictate from the front.
Comical Point built on his maiden win at Salisbury with a solid fifth in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes behind Charles Darwin. He wasn’t knocked about that day and shaped like the extra furlong here could suit. His trainer won this in 2020 and knows what it takes to win the race.
Do Or Do Not took another step forward when a 3 lengths runner-up to Gstaad in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Still a maiden after three starts but is knocking on the door and should be in the mix.
3:00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) – 6f
After two small-field contests, this is more like it — a big-field 6f sprint with 18 runners lining up for a true test of speed. The pace looks strong, with most of it coming from middle to high draws.
Contenders
Invictus Gold looked an improving sprinter when winning on the other course here 68 days ago. He’s been hit with a 9lb rise but remains on an upward curve. The downside is his draw in stall 1, which looks far from ideal.
Hucklesbrook (17) made most to win a valuable handicap at York 26 days ago. That made it 3 wins from his last 4 starts. He’s up 8lb but is thriving, and Ryan Moore takes the ride. Should be right there again from a handy high draw.
Double Rush (11) was joint favourite in that York race and finished a respectable 2¾ lengths third, despite being drawn out on wing. He meets the winner on 8lb better terms and is entitled to finish closer to the winner here.
Marchogion (15), the other joint favourite at York, disappointed in 13th but was another drawn away from the main action. Better drawn here, and worth forgiving that run and he’s a player if bouncing back.
Realign (16) was sent off 7/2 fav for the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot but could only finish 9th of 24. The drop to 5f likely didn’t suit, and he’s worth another shot back at 6f to show his mark of 92 is indeed a lenient one.
Tawasol (12) is going for a hat trick after an impressive win at Doncaster. He’s been raised 11lb and steps up in class but remains an exciting sprint prospect. Has strong claims if he doesn’t get locked into pace dual up front.
Arabian Son (13) improved plenty for his seasonal return behind Hucklesbrook when winning comfortably at Windsor 24 days ago. Up 7lb but I think he remains on a competitive mark and looks a serious player.
Finally
I’ve got a strong each-way fancy in the concluding race at Newmarket's July Festival. If you want that — plus all my selections for the rest of the July Festival — you can get them here.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John