Good afternoon, and a Merry Christmas to you all!
I hope you're all having a wonderful Christmas Day. We've just had a lovely walk to work up an appetite for lunch, and then it's time for the presents. Of course, the best of the presents won't arrive for us racing fans until tomorrow, with some superb action from Kempton and the rest of the week too!
Soi before you tuck into the turkey, here are my thoughts on Kempton's Boxing Day card!
1.20 Kempton
I’m finding it hard to look past Bothwell Bridge here. Very impressive when scoring on his chase debut at Sandown, making just the one small error, and given I thought the second, Mahler’s Promise, looked a well-handicapped horse if he could put it together, I have to rate the form highly. Rain won’t bother him, having won on soft over hurdles, he’s fully proven right-handed and a 5lb rise for that win looks more than manageable.
Sebastopol was unlucky not to score over slightly shorter here last time, and this extended trip isn’t a problem, but the handicapper doesn’t rate the form much as he was getting weight from an inferior rival and so drops him a pound. That looks quite generous, in retrospect, and he looks the danger.
1.55 Kempton
Ahoy Senor beat Bravemansgame an easy 7l in the Sefton at Aintree last season, and both have already shown themselves to be top-class novices over fences already, so this should be a fascinating match-up.
The worry for Ahoy Senor today is that this tight right-handed track is not going to suit him, but I’d argue that for Bravemansgame too, and it isn’t a stick I’d wish to beat him with. You could say that Bravemansgame has jumped the more fluently of the two so far and I’d not argue that, but the fact Ahoy Senor was so impressive at Newbury, despite the odd small mistake, makes me think that if he does put it all together and cuts the errors out, he’s only going to do better again. Indeed, there’s talk of a Gold Cup entry from the camp if he wins this, which only goes to show what high regard he’s held in.
I have a feeling that, if the rain does come, that’s going to suit Ahoy Senor more than it might Bravemansgame at this trip, and I take him to come out on top.
2.30 Kempton
For all Epatante gets the mares allowances here, making her the one to beat on ratings, I’d wouldn’t touch her with a barge pole, personally. Her back problems have been well documented and even after surgery that’s still a concern. She may have dead-heated with Not So Sleepy to take a share of the Fighting Fifth spoils, but that was hardly a sign she’s back to her best – indeed, the handicapper dropped her another pound for it – and having had such a torrid time of it here last year, I simply can’t back her at odds-on.
Not So Sleepy continually gets underrated and might well have his own way out in front again, which would make him dangerous, but he’s a hard one to predict, tending either to win or blow out over hurdles, for all he mixes it with the best these days.
Soaring Glory will be looking to Not So Sleepy to set a good gallop, as that’s when he’s at his best, and he didn’t get that at Newbury when a disappointing last of four to Onefortheroad last time. Onefortheroad then ran a respectable second to Tritronic in the International, so on a very strict reading Tritronic ought to be beating Soaring Glory here. Indeed, you can argue Tritronic has a bit in his favour here, having run a PB at Cheltenham and is proven over C&D, having hosed up in the Adonis last year. Maybe he’s just taken a bit of time to come to form, and as a 4yo it was always going to be tough for him against the very top-notchers this time around, but this looks a winnable Grade 1, if such a thing exists, and another step forward could see Tritronic home in front.
3.05 Kempton
And so to the big one. A good race in prospect, with last year’s winner, the Gold Cup winner, and a dual winner of the race all in attendance.
I’m usually with the Clan on this day, as it’s his Gold Cup, and conditions look to be once again near perfect for him. I do worry that trying to win this fresh might prove a step too far though, he hasn’t won after a 200+day break since 2015, although I’ll grant you there are some very good efforts in that bracket. But I think back to the 2020 Betfair when he cruised up alongside Bristol De Mai, only for the latter to grind him down and looking like he might have needed the run (as was the case the year before, when he won this). It’s enough to make me look elsewhere for the winner.
Last year’s winner, Frodon (allowed to dictate his own pace) and Minella Indo met at Down Royal at the end of October, with Frodon’s superb jumping keeping him in it when defeat looked more likely, and finding plenty for pressure to score. Dashel Drasher not lining up here gives Frodon a better chance of the easy lead again, and if he gets that then he’s going to prove tough to pass.
Minella Indo will come on plenty for the Down Royal run, but he looked the winner at one point there and I thought it was a little disappointing he couldn’t finish the job off, run or no run. Indeed, cheekpieces are now reached for just two starts after winning the Gold Cup, which I don’t really take as a positive either. Clearly his Gold Cup form is good enough to win this, and a return to that sees him on the premises, but there are little questions to answer for me now.
Lostintranslation came back to form at Ascot, but Kempton has never been a happy hunting ground for him, for all he may have excuses. Chantry House keeps on winning and this small field will suit the Marsh winner, but this is his toughest task yet. Asterion Forlonge has five lengths to find with Chantry House on the Marsh form, but has always looked like he’s worth a try at 3m and if his jumping holds up – doesn’t always, as in the John Durkan last time when looking a real threat – he can be given a chance too.
Saint Calvados didn’t get home in this last year after looking booked for the places, weakening out of it late for fourth, and needs a career best. I’ve waffled on here and not given anything definitive and that’s because I find it a hard race to read, but if you’re the sort of degenerate that, like me, can’t watch a big race without having an interest then Mister Fisher, each-way, might be worth a small investment.
The negatives – he comes here without a run, and like CDO, I think he’d have been better for one. The overall balance of his form leaves him short of what’s required here, and his jumping can sometimes let him down. Now the positives – he travels very well, indeed he travelled all over Frodon (off level weights) in the Oaksey Chase at Sandown last April (traded 1.04 in the run) until his suspect stamina ran out on that final climb for home, and he was beaten a neck. If he’s to get 3m then he’s going to get it here rather than somewhere else, he’ll not mind a bit of rain and he’s 2-2 at Kempton, for all that’s a bumper and a novice hurdle. I don’t think he’s as far behind these as the ratings make out and with no pressure on Sean Bowen other than to hunt round in midfield and pick up the pieces, a better run than his odds imply would not be the biggest shock.
Today's selection – Mister Fisher (e/w) 3.05 Kempton
Merry Christmas, and good luck with all your bets tomorrow!
David.