Hi all,
The feast on our dinner tables maybe over. Now it’s time for Christmas racing feast to begin. Apart from Cheltenham Festival the festive racing is my favourite period of the winter jumps season.
As I mentioned in Friday’s column, I’m heading to Wetherby for some, fingers crossed, nice Boxing Day weather and good sport.
The focus of today’s column isn’t on Wetherby though but Kempton where its King George VI Chase Day.
The King George VI Chase is the highlight of the festive racing. And after the Cheltenham Gold Cup the most prestigious race in the National Hunt calendar. I preview the big race inside today’s main piece where you’ll also find my Boxing Day best bet.
Kempton
It’s a seven race card at Kempton and this year includes four Grade 1 races. Plus, the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby.
The first race live on ITV is the Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle (12:45). This race was due to be run at Ascot last weekend. However, some quick rescheduling now sees it as part of Kempton’s Boxing Day card.
The going at Kempton is at the time of writing being described as soft. Looking at the forecast the track could get 12mm on Christmas Day but Boxing Day is set to be dry and sunny. If the rain does arrive it’s possible it could be closer to heavy.
It was described as good to soft at Wetherby on Friday. However, there was plenty of rain on Friday and it could be softer by the start of racing on Monday.
12:45 – Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle (3m ½ f)
A small but select field. With the race seeing a rematch between Paisley Park and last year’s winner Champ. They pair produced an exciting finish to the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last month, with Champ holding on by a neck.
Champ just heads the ante post betting, but Paisley Park is only third favourite. The latter has been usurped in the betting by the Paul Nicholls trained Miranda. The mare is 2-2 at Kempton but she does have something to find on official ratings and looks plenty short enough to me.
Goshen is at his best going right handed and will appreciate the soft ground. Stamina for 3m to be proved but if the quirky 6-year-old stays he won’t be far away.
Paisley Park can be backed at 4/1 which on the face of it is generous but his relative weakness is due to the sharp nature of the track. The speed favouring track should Champ though, and he would be my selection albeit it’s probably not a race I will be having a bet in.
1:20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (3m)
Another small field but another interesting contest, nonetheless. Dan Skelton won the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase with Shan Blue in 2020. I fancied Ballygrifincottage for this, but he wasn’t declared, and Skelton relies on the mare Galia Des Liteaux. She impressed when winning at Bangor on her chase debut last month. It was heavy ground that day, so any further easing of the ground is very much a positive for her.
McFabulous is the bookies ante post favourite and he’s a dual winner here over hurdles. A late starter to fences being an 8-year-old. He’s won his last two starts and took advantage of some poor jumping by favourite Thyme Hill to win a Grade 2 at Newbury last time. His stablemate Gelino Bello made it 2-2 over fences when winning a match at Exeter earlier in the month. Cobden has opted for McFabulous it would be unwise to dismiss Gelino Bello who’s an exciting chasing prospect and very much a contender on going that will suit.
Thyme Hill stays over fences, but his jumping lacked conviction last time and he needs the first time cheekpieces to have the desired effect.
1:55 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (2m)
No need for me to look any further than Constitution Hill. Of course, there’s no certainty in jump racing but he’s as close as there is to one.
2:30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (3m)
First run in 1937. The roll of honour for the King George VI Chase is a veritable ‘Who’s Who’ of steeplechasing. Mill House, Arkle, Pendil, Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid and Kauto Star are just some of the winners of this great race.
I previewed the race in Wednesday’s column. Whilst this year’s race isn’t the strongest in its history it’s still an intriguing one. Nine were left in the race at Friday’s final declaration stage. In addition to the market leaders Bravemansgame, L'Homme Presse. Hitman and Envoi Allan were both declared. As were Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor who come here rather than the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby.
On soft ground it’s L'Homme Presse for me. If it’s good to soft or better than the pendulum swings towards Bravemansgame. I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the claims of Envoi Allen either who has a better win chance than his odds imply.
It’s likely one of the market leaders will underperform on the day. Will Hitman stay a strongly run 3m? I wrote in my race preview that I thought Millers Bank was a sporting bet at 50s to place. I’m sticking with that assertion. Although he likely doesn’t have the class to win. The first time cheekpieces could eke out a bit more improvement and he’ll surely be ridden to pick up the pieces. I can envisage a scenario where he grabs third and I prefer him to place than the likes of Frodon, Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor who are much shorter in the betting.
Now two interesting handicaps that aren’t being covered by ITV this afternoon.
3:05 – Ladbrokes Get Your £1 Free Bet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (2m 4 ½ f)
The addition of the Long Walk Hurdle to the Kempton card means this novices handicap chase won’t be on ITV this afternoon, which is a shame. I speculated in Friday’s column as to which of three entries Nicky Henderson would run in the race. Well, he’s gone with Balco Coastal. The 6-year-old didn’t jump very well when 5th of 6 on his chase debut at Newbury but he’s on a decent mark and can win with a decent round of jumping.
Don Alvaro bids for the hat trick after back-to-back successes at Wincanton. He’s already shown he’s a better chaser than a hurdler and his sound jumping will always give him a chance in races like this. More ease in the ground would be a concern though. I prefer him to stablemate Solo although that one won’t be inconvenienced by an easier surface.
Arizona Cardinal relished soft ground when making a winning chase debut at Bangor on seasonal return. Not as good at Uttoxeter last month but he’s better than that and would have each way claims.
3:40 – Ladbrokes Fanzone “Your Team Your Game” Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f)
Nicky Henderson has won the last two running’s of this Class 3 contest. The hat trick could well be on as he’s got declared for this year’s race. His two are Theatre Glory & The Bomber Liston. The first named came in for decent support before unseating her rider in the Gerry Feilden handicap hurdle at Newbury last month. Four from six over hurdles and likely capable of better. The Bomber Liston has yet to race this season but he’s another who’s capable of further improvement.
The most likely favourite is Grey Dawning, trained by Dan Skelton. The dual bumper winner built on the promise of his Aintree hurdle debut when beating sixteen rivals at Exeter (2m ½ f) 24-days ago. Bred to appreciate this sort of trip and looks on very workable mark for handicap debut.
Optimise Prime made it 3-9 over hurdles when winning at Lingfield (soft) last month. Up 5lb but he’s going the right way and the more testing ground the better for the 6-year-old.
Boxing Day Verdict:
More rain on already softened ground and we could be set for some non-runners at Kempton.
Millers Bank is interesting at around 10/1 & 11/1 for the place in the King George VI Chase. As for the two handicaps that conclude the Kempton card. A better round of jumping and Balco Coastal is weighted go close in the 3:05. And on what could be a good day for the Henderson yard Theatre Glory & The Bomber Liston are respected in the 3:40. However, all three of the Henderson horses are unproven on really soft ground.
Today’s best bet doesn’t come from Kempton or Wetherby for that matter. Instead, I’m off to Wincanton and the 3m 1f handicap chase (1:28).
Boxing Day Selection:
Wincanton
1:28 – Trainer Jeremy Scott (Sizable Sam) is 7-21 33% +110 10 placed 48% with his runners in Wincanton handicaps in the past two years. That impressive record is improved if you focus on his handicap chasers 4-9 44% +35 5 placed 56%.
Sizable Sam hadn’t run particularly well on first two starts over fences last season. However, there was much to like about his neck 2nd of 11 at Exeter (good to soft) last month. Nudged up 3lb for that effort but is 1lb below his winning mark over hurdles. Softer ground will suit the 7-year-old better as will a return to Wincanton where his form figures are 22111.
Sizable Sam
Good luck with your Boxing Day bets.
John