Kempton Nap

Evening all,

Inside today’s main piece, I look back at my afternoon at Pontefract. Plus, you’ll also find a couple of trainers who seem to have their NH horses in good form and there’s a Tuesday selection.

An enjoyable day at Pontefract

Well, I had an enjoyable afternoon at Pontefract on Tuesday. The sun shone and although it was very much an autumn day its was an ideal one to watch the racing. The going was good to soft but talking to a couple of the jockeys it was closer to soft than good.

There was a small but knowledgeable crowd. The ‘Peaky Blinders’ crowd weren’t in attendance. This was a day for horse racing enthusiasts and those looking to have a bet. Not for those going for a social event and boozy afternoon and it made the day a much better one.

Those who market the sport seem to have forgotten the most important thing about the sport. Its watching equine and human athletes in unison and the opportunity for people to have a flutter on the outcome of the race.

It’s like marketers are ashamed of the betting aspect. Well, unless having a bet is central to any marketing of the sport it’s doomed to fail.

All in all, I really enjoyed the day. Mind you it did help that two of my six bets were landed. Sadly, one of them wasn’t Monday’s selection Indefatigable. There was plenty of money around for the selection, However, they didn’t go quick enough in the early stages of the race for the mare. It just wasn’t enough of a stamina test for her on the day. This outing will have put her spot for a return to hurdles at Wetherby next weekend.

Anyway, a big thank you from me and Victor Value subscribers to Ruth Carr for Rhythm and the old boy Magical Effect. If I had the good fortune to own a sprint handicapper, I wouldn’t hesitate to send it to Ruth to be trained.

No five day festival

The Jockey Club announced yesterday that the Cheltenham Festival would remain a 4-day event rather than move to a fifth day from 2024.

It had looked a foregone conclusion that the Cheltenham Festival would become a five day extravaganza. I’m pleasantly surprised by their decision, but they have made the right one. We simply didn’t need another day.

I haven’t met anyone who was in favour of an extra day at Cheltenham. It seems like the Jockey Club have listened to racegoers on the subject. The fact that the track probably wouldn’t stand five days of racing was probably more of an influence on the decision. If they thought, they could get away with it they would have.

Another factor like to have been in the minds of the Jockey Club’s was the long term outlook of the economy. We’re likely to be in recession next year and that recession could even turn into a depression. The like of which we haven’t seen since the 1930’s.

It’s time to switch codes

The winter jumps season is about to hit top gear over the next three weekends. On Friday it’s the start of Cheltenham’s two day Showcase Meeting. The following Friday & Saturday Wetherby hosts its two day Bet365 Charlie Hall Meeting. The weekend after that we have Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup on Friday. On the Saturday its Wincanton’s Badger Beers Chase Day. And, on the Sunday, racing is back at Aintree with the feature race of its Boylesports Autumn Raceday being the Grand Sefton Chase which is run over the National fences. Even better ITV will be covering all three days of jumps action as well as the Breeders Cup that weekend.

I have started to look at last seasons form and I’m at a stage when I can’t wait for the jumping stars to get back into action. I’m not saying my flat bets have ended, far from it. There’s still the little matter of the Breeders Cup and I like a dabble in the Melbourne Cup but there will be fewer flat selections after Saturday’s action is out of the way.

Tracker Time

Everyone has a different approach when it comes dealing with their tracker horses at the end of the flat season. Some like to keep all their horses for next season. Meanwhile other prefer to declutter. I’m firmly in the latter camp. I’m have less than 20 flat horses in the tracker and a few older handicappers will be deleted in the coming weeks. The only flat horses that I tend keep in over the winter are the 2-year-olds.

Regarding tracker horses. I like trackers which have a notes function. For example: I might note if a horse prefers a single digit field or needs soft/heavy ground, etc.

It's that point in the year when I will start to add the jumpers.  I normally start after Chepstow’s ‘Jumps Season Opener'. However, I didn’t look at this year’s meeting so Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting will be this winter season’s starting point.

Autumn Trainers: National Hunt

I know some of you like to follow trainers. Well at this time of the jumps season it normally pays to concentrate on those trainers who have their horses ready to win in the autumn.

Here are two trainers who normally get winners in the months of October & November.

Harry Fry

I think Harry Fry is set for a big season and he’s already started October in fine form. He’s 3 winners from 3 runners so far this month.

If your wanting angle for the trainers runners you will do worse than look for qualifiers racing in Class 2 & 3 races and that are returned 14/1 & under.

Ok, last October/November wasn’t great for the trainer but I’m hopeful that we’ll see him back in profit this year.

Jonjo O’Neill

Jonjo O'Neill is another trainer who does well with his runners in the early months of the winter jumps campaign.

The month has already started well for him with 5 winners from 22 runners. That’s close to a 23% win strike rate. Although if you had backed all his runners, you would have made a loss of £11.64 to a £1 level stake.

The way into his runners could be to back those aged 5 to 8 who are returning from a 121 to 355 day absence.

Looking at those results betting to BSP looks a smart move. As does backing his runners each way as they have made a profit +98.19 to industry prices.

Breaking those results by year:

This season he’s operating at 50% win strike rate albeit you would have made a small loss to industry SP. Just the one poor season in 2018 but that one apart it’s been profitable angle.

Tuesday Racing

I’m not feeling much excitement for today’s action and that normally means I should leave it alone. For those of you looking for some action here’s a few thoughts.

Kempton

7:30 – Miramichi has failed to add to last years’ four wins so far this season. He’s been running credibly on turf this summer and last time out was a ½ length 3^rd of 13 over C&D on his all-weather debut. A 2lb rise in the weights doesn’t make life easy for the 4-year-old nor does stall 11 but he looks capable of winning on the all-weather.

8:30 – Top weight Bibulous’ sole career win came over C&D last autumn. The gelding remains unexposed on the synthetics. A solid effort when a neck 2^nd of 8 to Dora Penny at Ffos Las 22-days ago and should be capable of landing an all-weather handicap off his present mark.

Gowran Park

3:30 – Carirose is an eight race maiden, but she was only beaten a head into second at Tipperary in April, off 1lb higher. The filly made an encouraging return from a 5 month layoff when a 3 length 5th of 13 at Killarney 8-days ago. She seems well suited to testing ground and shouldn’t be far away if backing up last week’s effort.

5:10 – White Caviar takes on some battle hardened albeit mostly inconsistent handicappers on handicap debut. The 3-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a soft ground Listowel maiden last time. Looks capable of more improvement with racing and I think a mark of 81 could prove lenient.

There you have it not the most exciting of day but hopefully there’s a winner among those four. As for a selection, I’m just favouring the claims of Bibulous in the ‘lucky last’ at Kempton. Mind you his price doesn't leave much room for old friend value and as we saw yesterday I don't always put up the right one.

Kempton

8:30 – Bibulous – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John