Hi all,
It’s a busy day for a Wednesday plenty of interesting races both sides of the Irish Sea.
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing a cracking looking Kerry National at Listowel this afternoon.
Constitution Hill Stays Over Hurdles
It wasn’t the biggest surprise that connections of Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill announced yesterday that he would be staying over hurdles rather than go over fences.
Constitution Hill is the best Champion Hurdler we’ve seen since Istabraq and he could turn out to be the best ever.
If they had thought, he would stay the Gold Cup distance I think they would have rolled the dice. I don’t think he would. However, an Arkle and Champion Chase or two or more Champion Hurdles and it wasn’t really a tough decision.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1
Ayr’s three day Western Meeting concludes on Saturday. Arguably the best race run in Scotland during the flat season the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (3.35) is the feature of the Saturday card. There’s also a competitive undercard with Scotland’s only Group race the Firth of Clyde Fillies' Stakes (3:00) another highlight.
The Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (3:15) is the highlight of Newbury’s Saturday card.
There’s also good action in Ireland with the Group 2 Beresford Stakes (2:30) and the Goff Million (3:40) at the Curragh.
ITV4 are covering the best of the action from Ayr and Newbury on a nine race programme on Saturday afternoon.
I would normally look at Saturday’s big race in the Wednesday column. However, I will look at the Ayr Gold Cup in Thursday’s column. The reason, we have a big race this afternoon to get stuck into at Listowel.
Wednesday Preview
The Guinness Kerry National (4.25) at Listowel is the highlight of Wednesday’s action. However. there’s also a couple of Listed races this side of the Irish Sea. At Yarmouth we have the EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (3.45) and at Sandown the Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes (3.40) is the feature race of a six race card at the Esher track.
Listowel
4:25 – Guinness Kerry National – 3m
The Kerry National has €118,000 on offer to the winner. The Listowel racecourse management will be delighted they have attracted such a strong field for this time of the season.
Salvador Ziggy unbeaten on this three starts over fences heads the ante post betting. He’s one of seven runners from the Gordon Elliot yard and four of them have good claims.
Here’s my idea of the most likely winners of the race.
Salvador Ziggy
Only beat a single rival when completing a chase hat trick at Killarney 25 days ago. However, he already he’s stamped himself a better chaser than a hurdler. Needs to find more to defy a mark of 150 on handicap chase debut but could be capable of doing so. Lacks the experience of most of his rivals but if his jumping stands up, will take the beating,
Ash Tree Meadow
Produced a career best when winning the Galway Plate 49 days ago. A sound surface suits the 7-year-old. Although he’s 10lb higher than at Galway, his good jumping means he must be respected once more.
Gevrey
A length runner-up in the Irish Grand National two starts back had a pipe opener over hurdles at Kibeggan 39 days ago he should be competitive in these sort of handicap chases this winter and can’t be ruled out.
The Goffer
Returned from a 3 month absence to finish an 18 ¾ length 8th of 22 in the Galway Plate last time. He wasn’t the best way that day and might have needed the run. The first time tongue tie is applied. I think there’s a nice handicap chase in the 6-year-old this season.
Authorised Art
Was a 2 ½ length runner-up to Ash Tree Meadow in the Galway Plate. He’s 5lb better off with the winner today and is the choice of Paul Townend. Should be in the mix once more but I wonder if there will be stronger stayers in the line-up.
Ciel De Neige
Finished a 14 ½ length sixth in the Galway Plate. He never got competitive last time but was doing his best work at the finish. Decent chance that he will stay 3m and he’s not handicapped out of this by any means.
Stealthy Tom
Must be respected given his current vein of form. The 8-year-old has won three of his last four starts and posted a clear best on RPR’s when running out a comfortable winner of a Listed handicap chase (2m 5f) at Killarney last month. Up 11lb for his latest success but going the right way.
Ain't That a Shame
Hails from a yard that won this with Poker Party in 2019. The 9-year-old gained his first success over fences in a beginners chase at Gowran Park (2m 4f) two starts back. Failed to stay in the Grand National at Aintree but this is more his trip. First start for 158 days but he went close in the Munster National at Limerick on his seasonal return last October. The softer the ground the better his chance.
Desertmore House
Has won two of his three starts since going chasing this season. The latest of those wins coming on handicap chase debut at Kilbeggan 26 days ago. He’s now 8lb higher but is clearly going the right way over fences. He’s second reserve but if he was to get into the race needs respecting.
Kerry National Verdict:
A cracking renewal of this valuable handicap chase. Salvador Ziggy looks a worthy enough favourite. I also his stablemate The Goffer. Stealthy Tom is in good form and should go well provided the ground doesn’t get too soft. Meanwhile Ain't That a Shame won’t be inconvenienced should more rain arrive and goes well off a layoff. He probably won’t get into the race but if he does Desertmore House would have to be considered.
Besides the big Listowel race the two Listed contests at Sandown & Yarmouth are worth a look.
Sandown
3:40 – Chasemore Farm Fortune Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m
An interesting renewal of this Listed contest.
We haven’t seen Listed winner Eydon since he finished a 4 ¼ length 4th of 15 to Coroebus in last season’s 2,000 Guineas. First run since and the colt is also having his first start since switching to Andrew Balding.
Chindit bounced backed to winning ways in a Group 3 at Haydock 11 days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success and is unlikely to get the quickish ground he likely needs.
Knight improved to finish ½ length 2nd of 7 in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood last time. The first time cheekpieces go on and given he’s only had five starts could be capable of better on an easy surface.
Raadobarg is a consistent enough performer in this grade and goes well on soft ground. However, he’s on a losing run that goes back to April 2022 and is likely needs a couple of his rivals to run below par to win.
Sir Busker hasn’t been since disappointing in a Group 1 in Meydan in March. A reproduction of his Group 2 win at York (1m 2 ½ f) last August would see the 7-year-old close in this company. However, he might just need the run after a 179 day absence.
Verdict:
I’m not sure Chindit will appreciate today’s easier ground and has a 5lb penalty to give away. If Eydon is ready to roll after a 508 day absence he would be in the mix. Knight drops back in class after an excellent run in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time and getting 9lb for Chindit is the one to beat.
Yarmouth
3:45 – EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
A good sized field with fourteen fillies & mares set to line-up for this Listed contest. It may pay to focus on the three fillies open to the most improvement.
Al Asifah looked a potential Group 1 filly when comfortably winning a Listed race (1m 2f) at Goodwood in May. She lost her unbeaten record when a disappointing 5/6 favourite in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. That run came only 11 days after Goodwood so the race may have to come quick for her and she may not have stayed 1m 4f. Has been given a 90 day break to freshen up and remains capable of much better.
Sapphire Seas completed a hat trick when winning at Haydock (good to firm) on handicap debut 13 days ago. Looks well worth her place in pattern company. The daughter of Frankel needs respecting if handling the likely easier ground.
Infinite Cosmos built on the promise of last season’s racecourse debut when comfortably winning a Newmarket maiden in May. The daughter of Sea The Stars improved again when a 4 ½ lengths 3rd of 8 to Soul Sister in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York. First run for 126 days but won her seasonal reappearance so likely will be fit enough on return. Might need 1m 4f, dam won over 1m 4f but should appreciate a slower surface.
Verdict:
Al Asifah could still turn out to be Group 1 filly and is the most likely winner, but she’s likely to be priced up accordingly by the bookies. Sapphire Seas is improving quickly and looks Listed class but the ground will be different to what she won on last time. This trip might prove to be on the short side for Infinite Cosmos but an easy surface will bring out her stamina and she looks a bit of value at 6/1 against the favourite.
Wednesday Selection:
Yarmouth
3:45 – Infinite Cosmos – 13/2 @ Paddy Power.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
Disagree re Con Hill.
Nobody wants to see him beat the same rubbish hurdlers in a hack canter every time he runs..do they?
That is not worth paying good money to see.
The Arkle etc..would be much more enjoyable. There are some good Irish horses around that would have a chance against him over fences and now that Con is staying over hurdles, all of the good young ones will go fencing to avoid him anyway.
There is more to life than a Gold Cup!
7/4 to win another 3 Champion Hurdles and 4/1 to win another 4?!
Not with your money thanks.
I see Nicky is dissing the Champion Chase (not even via the Arkle) but I would still rather see the horse flying fences over 2 miles than hurdles.
Why doesn’t he think that the Champion Chase is as prestigious as the Champion Hurdle? He used to say Altior had the speed to win a Champion Hurdle after that horse went chasing (hardly likely Nicky) but he didn’t go back to hurdling did he and instead won the chase version. Obviously connections know alot better than I do as to what is best for the horse, but there will be those of us that will still believe that the decision is a poor one.