Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to Saturday’s Cambridgeshire Handicap. Plus, there's a preview of today’s Kerry National at Listowel.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Newmarket’s three-day Cambridgeshire Meeting kicks off on Thursday. While ITV won’t be showing Thursday’s races, they’ll cover four races on Friday, including the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes (3:00).
Saturday is the main event at Newmarket, with Group 1 action headlined by the Cheveley Park Stakes (2:25) and Middle Park Stakes (3:00) for juveniles. The bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (3:40) is the day’s big betting race and part of the ‘Autumn Double,’ alongside next month’s Cesarewitch Handicap. In the past, punters loved to take on the Autumn Double, and bookmakers actively promoted it. Nowadays, it seems fewer do, and the bookies rarely mention it. On Saturday, ITV will broadcast five races from Newmarket plus two more from Haydock.
The excitement doesn’t stop there. On Sunday, we have the Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch with a massive €324,000 prize for the winner.
Cambridgeshire Handicap
First run in 1839, the Cambridgeshire Handicap is one of the most prestigious and historic flat handicaps in British racing. Run over 1m 1f, horses need a blend of speed and stamina to win. They must stay that extra furlong beyond a mile while maintaining a good cruising speed to hold position in a large field. Tactical riding and the ability to navigate through traffic are key to success.
Last week’s trends for the Ayr Gold Cup produced the winner, Lethal Levi, as well as nine other qualifiers. Will the trends help find Saturday’s Cambridgeshire winner? The last four winners went off at odds of 40/1, 40/1, 25/1, and 20/1, so another big-priced winner wouldn’t be surprising.
For me, this isn’t really a trends race. All the last ten winners shared certain traits, but only 98 horses since 2014 have failed to meet those trends, which is 32% of total runners.
The Draw:
With up to 35 runners, the draw is always interesting in the Cambridgeshire.
Since 2014, only one winner has come from a single-digit stall—Third Time Lucky (7) in 2015. That’s just 1 winner from 92 runners (-77) with 9 places. In recent years, Oviedo (4th) and Dual Identity (3rd) have run well from low draws, but I still think middle-to-high is the place to be. Last year’s winner, Astro King, came from stall 35, breaking a trend for horses drawn 30+. The sweet spot seems to be stalls 21 to 29, producing 7 winners from 84 runners (+105.5) with 17 places since 2014.
Contenders:
John Gosden is the top trainer in the Cambridgeshire, with 2 winners from 15 runners (+2.5). This year, the Gosden yard has the sponsors’ ante-post favourite in Roi De France (7/1), best priced at 10/1 with William Hill. A 3-year-old, Roi De France fits well into the Gosden trend, as they’ve had 2 winners from 6 runners (+11.5) in this age group. Oisin Murphy is booked for the ride, and the 10/1 looks fair to me.
Roi De France heads my shortlist of 12 contenders from the 53 entries confirmed on Monday. Others on the list include top weight Liberty Lane, Irish challengers This Songisforyou (Colin Keane booked), Norwalk Havoc (Hollie Doyle booked), and Coeur d'Or (Ryan Moore booked). Last year’s third Bopedro, Dual Identity, Godwinson, Ron O, and soft-ground lover Balmacara also make my cut.
With 53 entries, we’re likely to get a maximum field of 35. A few of my fancies need quick ground, while others need soft ground. By Thursday’s final declarations, I should have a more manageable shortlist of six or seven horses.
On Tuesday afternoon the going at Newmarket was good and its forecast to be sunny and dry on Saturday. However, before then the course could receive between 15mm & 20mm of rain which would see the ground ease.
Wednesday Racing
The race of the day is the Kerry National (4:20) at the Listowel Festival, with €118,000 in prize money for the winner. Across the Irish Sea, the best action is at Goodwood, featuring the Listed Foundation Stakes (4:05) and the British EBF £100,000 2yo Fillies' Series Final (4:40). With forecast heavy ground, the latter race could become a real test of stamina for the juveniles.
Kerry National Preview
A maximum field of 18 runners lines up for this year’s Kerry National, including the last two winners of the race.
Perceval Legallois was the beaten favourite (7/2) in the Galway Plate after a slow start and poor jumping. However, he had jumped much better when finishing 2nd of 17 at the Punchestown Festival two runs ago. He’s handicapped to win a race like this when everything falls into place.
Solitary Man has taken well to chasing, with 2 wins from 4 starts over fences. He makes his handicap chase debut off a workable mark, and the first-time cheekpieces could bring out more improvement.
Chemical Energy, sixth in this race last year, bounced back from a poor Grand National run to finish 5th of 22 in the Galway Plate. He’s equipped with first-time cheekpieces and can get into the places.
The Real Whacker struggled last season but was a top novice two seasons ago. He’s on a fair mark and could be dangerous if he finds a good jumping rhythm out in front.
Busselton, the 2022 Kerry National winner, is back down to a favorable mark but will need good ground to show his best.
Desertmore House, last year’s winner had race fitness on his side then but could still be competitive off a 9lb higher mark.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
Cheers
John