Hi all,
Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow!
The cold snap has well and truly arrived here in Yorkshire. Even by 10 a.m. on Thursday, temperatures were still below freezing. On the bright side, it’s sunny for the next couple of days, and thankfully the low cloud and fog that hung over us during Christmas has cleared.
Looking ahead, snow is on the horizon for the weekend. It’s forecast to start here on Saturday evening, with up to 25cm expected over the next 24 hours. For those of you down south, it’s likely to be rain.
When I was 12, I’d have been thrilled about the prospect of large amounts of snow. These days, I’d be much happier if it stayed away—or better yet, turned to rain!
How long will this cold snap last? That’s anyone’s guess. If freezing temperatures stick around, it might be time to dust off the all-weather formbooks—or perhaps take a well-earned break from punting altogether.
Racing’s Weather Woes
Friday’s racing is dismal, with just one of the 25 races offering more than £6,000 to the winner. It’s hardly inspiring stuff.
To make matters worse, both Musselburgh and Lingfield face precautionary inspections on Friday morning to determine if racing can even go ahead. Meanwhile, Sandown has already taken steps for Saturday, laying frost covers on parts of the track ahead of the Veterans’ Chase Final card.
It’s shaping up to be a challenging couple of days for racing fans.
Small Fields for Saturday’s ITV Races
The issue of small field sizes continues into Saturday’s action. Sandown’s ITV races have attracted just 32 runners across the card, while the two televised races from Wincanton feature only 16 combined.
The Unibet Veterans' Chase Final (3:00) at Sandown has suffered particularly, with only nine runners declared. It’s a disappointing turnout for a race that has consistently drawn bigger fields since inception. Last year’s renewal had 14 runners, and 2023 saw 18. This year marks the first time the race hasn’t hit double figures—a blow for its sponsors and fans alike.
Let’s hope the action on the track can make up for the lack of depth.
Kim Bailey Lay Angle
Many of you may have come across an excellent research piece by ‘King of the Stats’ Dave Renham on the Geegeez site. If not, it’s well worth a read—you can find it here.
Dave's analysis highlights trainers who tend to start the year strong and those who struggle to hit the ground running. While both are useful insights, I’m more interested in the latter. Among the highlighted trainers, Kim Bailey and David Pipe stand out with historically poor January records.
Intrigued, I dug into Horseracebase to uncover potential laying angles, and I found some promising data. Let’s focus on the Kim Bailey yard.
Kim Bailey – January Record
Here’s a snapshot of his overall performance in January:
Now, let’s narrow it down to runners returned at 7/1 or shorter.
Runners 7/1 & Under
As you might expect, Bailey’s win strike rate improves with these shorter-priced runners. However, the real takeaway is the profitability of laying them. The data reveals a consistent trend—there’s more profit to be gained by opposing these Kim Bailey qualifiers than by backing them.
J.J. Slevin Lands Top Job
J J Slevin has secured one of the premier roles in National Hunt racing. The 32-year-old is now the retained jockey for Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. Following Daryl Jacob's retirement on Sunday, Slevin steps into the high-profile role, riding the duo's horses in both Britain and Ireland. This means we’ll be seeing much more of him across the Irish Sea.
He got his new job off to a perfect start as he rode a double for the owners at Ayr on Thursday.
Slevin’s excellent record in Grade 1 races was a key factor in the appointment. Racing manager Anthony Bromley described his Grade 1 performance as “incredible.” The stats back it up—since turning professional in 2016, Slevin has consistently excelled at the highest level.
In addition to his new role, Slevin will continue riding for top owners Sean and Bernardine Mulryan and trainer Joseph O’Brien when not required by the “Double Green” team.
This is a fantastic opportunity for Slevin, an underrated jockey who has shown time and again that he can deliver under pressure in the top races.
I’ll be on the move this Friday, so there’s a chance I won’t have time to put together a Saturday column. If that’s the case, don’t worry—I’ll be back in the hot seat on Monday.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John