Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I'm looking ahead to Saturday's King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
The Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3:40) is one of the season's premier races for middle-distance horses. Established in 1951 to commemorate the Festival of Britain, the race was named in honour of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth, the parents of Queen Elizabeth II. It quickly became a highlight of the British flat racing season. Legends like Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Shergar, Nashwan, and Galileo have all won this prestigious race.
Other Saturday Ascot Highlights
- International Handicap (3:00): Features £150,000 in guaranteed prize money.
- Princess Margaret Stakes (1:50) and Valiant Stakes (2:25): Two competitive Group 3 races for fillies.
There’s also Group 2 action at York with the Sky Bet York Stakes (3:15) and the Sky Bet Dash Handicap (2:40), part of a seven-race programme on ITV on Saturday afternoon.
Ascot: King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview
This race doesn't have many strong trends, but a couple stand out:
All the last ten winners had won over the distance.
Low-drawn horses over Ascot’s 1m 4f distance have struggled, with stalls 1 & 2 producing – 0 winners from 18 runners (3 places).
Just 11 were left in the race at Monday's final confirmation stage and five are trained by Aidan O'Brien. As a consequence it could struggle to get 8 runners come final declarations on Thursday.
Here are some of the key contenders.
Contenders
- Auguste Rodin: Winner of the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot, he’s the ante-post favourite. Despite flopping in last year’s race, he’s likely to get his ideal ground this time. He’s a worthy favourite and the best horse on RPRs, but at 5/4, he’s a bit short for me, though he remains the most likely winner.
- Rebel Romance: A five-time Group 1 winner, all abroad, including the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf and this year’s Dubai Sheema Classic. Suited by quick ground, he's a major player and looks better value at 4/1 compared to the favourite.
- Bluestocking: Has matured from three to four and gained a breakthrough Group 1 success in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last time. However, she’s yet to win at 1m 4f and may not run due to the dry weather forecast.
- Middle Earth: With Oisin Murphy booked, he looks a guaranteed runner. Needs a well-run race and quick ground. Although he would need significant improvement to win, the 14/1 available with William Hill and Ladbrokes offers each-way value at this stage, especially with the likelihood of fewer than eight runners on Saturday.
I will look at the Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) in Thursday’s column.
Wednesday Racing
This evenings card at Naas features some exciting Listed action with the Marwell Stakes (5:18) and the Yeomanstown Stud Irish EBF Stakes (6:20).
Marwell Stakes (5:18)
The Karl Burke-trained filly Miss Lamai heads the betting after an impressive performance in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she finished 2 ¼ lengths 4th in a field of 24. If not inconvenienced by stall 9, she’s the one to beat.
Make Haste, who was well-fancied for the Queen Mary after a promising C&D debut win, failed to fire in that race. She now races with a hood for the first time. If she can return to her debut form, she’s a strong contender, particularly with a favourable low draw.
Yeomanstown Stud Irish EBF Stakes (6:20)
William Haggas and David O'Meara send over fillies from the UK for this contest. Haggas saddles Pinafore, who should benefit from the drop back to 6f if the pace is strong. Haggas has an impressive record at Naas, with 2 wins from 4 runners over the last five years.
David O'Meara's Nighteyes has won three of her last five starts and appears to be progressing nicely. The 3-year-old will enjoy the return to 6f and is a big player in the race.
Both English challengers, Pinafore and Nighteyes, have strong claims, making it tough to separate them. Given this, a Dutching strategy (backing both to ensure a profit if either wins) could be a prudent approach.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John