Hi all,
In today’s main piece Kempton’s Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle comes under the big race microscope.
Weather Woes Continue
We managed to see some jumps action at Taunton on Wednesday, but all Thursday’s has been abandoned. News came through that Wetherby’s Saturday card has been called off, which came as no surprise to me given I live nearby and knew the weather would make racing impossible.
Saturday’s Classic Chase card at Warwick is set for a Thursday inspection, but the chances of it going ahead are practically zero. Kempton is also looking highly doubtful, leaving us with very limited action this weekend.
On a brighter note, a David Maxwell lay angle I mentioned last month had its first qualifier at Taunton yesterday. I thought Joker De Mai was worth opposing at 9/4, and that call proved spot on.
Kempton’s Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle
The Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle is one of the standout mid-season handicap hurdles in the British National Hunt calendar. It takes place in January at Kempton Park over a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs.
The race is named after Lanzarote, a popular horse in the 1970s trained by Fred Winter. Lanzarote was a Champion Hurdler in 1974 and was known for his versatility, winning at various distances and codes.
Inaugurated in 1978, the race distance was extended to its current trip of 2 miles 5 furlongs in 2007, adding a stamina test for progressive hurdlers.
Kempton’s flat, right-handed track tends to suit speedier horses who travel and jump accurately decent ground, soft or heavy conditions can make the race more gruelling stamina test.
Trends:
Looking at the race trends which contain 15 winners from 238 runners, 53 places.
Trainers
- Nicky Henderson (3) – Oscar Dara (2013), William Henry (2018) and Burrows Edge (2020)
- Paul Nicholls (2) – Saphir Du Rheu (2014) and Modus (2017)
- Dan Skelton (2) – West Balboa (2023) and Jay Jay Reilly (2024)
- Watch for unexposed types from smaller yards, such as Jennie Candlish’s Big Time Dance (2019) Ben Case’s Cobblers Dream (2022).
Odds
Favourites have a 33% win rate in the past 15 years, with several well-backed winners.
Double-digit odds winners are not uncommon, with five of the last six winners (e.g., Boreham Bill at 66/1 in 2021 and Jay Jay Reilly at 33/1 in 2024).
Other Factors
Novice hurdlers have won 8 of the last 15 renewals, highlighting the importance of finding improving horses on the rise.
Top Weights are 0 winners from 17 runners, 2 places since 2010.
All the last 15 winners of the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle met the following four trends.
Nine of the last 15 winners had yet to win a handicap hurdle and seven of the last 15 had run in 0-1 handicap hurdles.
Contenders:
There’s £52,030on offer to the winner of this year’s Lanzarote and 34 were left in the race which means we could well see a big field line-up on Saturday.
As with yesterday’s Classic Chase there’s a serious likelihood that the race won’t take place. That said if there is to be jumps racing on Saturday in Britain Kempton will provide it.
At the time of writing, the sponsors ante-post market highlights several notable contenders:
Impose Toi
Currently the ante-post favourite with sponsors at 6/1. Trained by Nicky Henderson, this 7-year-old has career form figures of 112121123. He finished third in last year’s race and posted a career best on first start since when winning at Newbury 42 days ago. Strong claims but he’s likely to be joint top weight.
Beat The Bat
Joint favourite at 6/1. The 7-year-old has improved with each of his four starts over hurdles. Looked on a good mark when a 3 length 2nd of 14 to Steel Ally on handicap debut at Haydock last time. Up 3lb but should be thereabouts if in the same form as last time.
Jipcot
Priced at 8/1. He seemed to have improved for wind surgery and also proved his stamina for an extended 2m 4f when a comfortable winner of a Newbury handicap 14 days ago. Likely a significant player if he gets a soundly run race.
Knight of Allen
Priced at 10/1. This horse has been consistent on two starts this season and posted a career best on RPR’s when third to Steel Ally on handicap debut last time. May offer value to punters looking for an each-way option. Trainer Jane Williams’ ex-husband Nick won this race in 2011, 2012 and 2015. Jane also has Excelero in the same ownership among the entries.
Doddiethegreat
Priced at 14/1. A previous course and distance winner, he was hampered and quickly pulled after the first over C&D over Christmas. Looks on a winnable mark based on the best of last season’s form. Another possible contender from the Nicky Henderson yard.
Il Va De So
Priced at 14/1. Looked an improving handicap hurdler when winning his last two starts last season. Made a credible return to action when 5th of 16 at Cheltenham 57 days ago. He’s well suited to soft/heavy ground and the trainer indicated in his Racing Post Stable Tour that he was a Lanzarote type.
Minella Missile
Priced at 16/1. The 7-year-old looked an exciting prospect when winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2023. First run since his Cheltenham success but if he’s retained most of his ability a mark of 138 could be lenient on handicap debut. Not sure he would want really testing ground given his long lay off but he’s a fascinating contender.
Lanzarote 2024 Verdict
I’ve had a good look at the race, and it’s one I’m eager to dive into. Impose Toi is the class act with strong claims after his Newbury win, though carrying top-weight will be tough. Stablemate Doddiethegreat shouldn’t be overlooked either. Beat The Bat, Knight of Allen, and Il Va De So are all progressive hurdlers with solid profiles for this test. Meanwhile, Minella Missile is a fascinating handicap debutant making his return from a long absence.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John
Thank you . .very clear piece on that race. Appreciated as it a race I like to punt e/w. Let’s bag the winner .