Hi all,
In last Thursday’s column I looked at how you can try to identify ‘true’ favourites. Well today I’m switching my attention to, how I approach a big Saturday handicap like the Cesarewitch.
Nothing beats picking your own selections. For the novice and not so novice punter who is looking to pick winners. Then here are a couple methods that can be used to identify big-priced winners. Neither demand much knowledge of the form book…well a bit. However, they’re simple, easy to operate and don’t demand too much time. The latter is important because most punters just don’t have the time to be able analyse races in the required detail.
Big field handicap approaches
So how do I go about finding selections for a valuable handicap like the Cesarewitch. You can split the field into three sections – Top – Middle – Bottom.
Some punters argue that the middle section is the ‘live’ area where you should fish for handicap race winners.
Why was this worth fishing for winners in?
Well, those up near the top might have weight issues. Many of them were likely to be inconsistent and out of form. Whilst those in the bottom section may have class issues. Some of course could have dropped down to the bottom of the weights but were now at a weight they can win off. Whist others are coming into the racing in good from but are moving up in class.
Those horses in the middle section that you would be most interested in would be those consistent horses who are improving and capable of more progression.
For the sake of simplicity, you would in 15 runners handicap you’d be looking deeper into the form of the middle five runners. Or, in a 30 runner handicap the middle ten. For a 34 runner race like say the Cesarewitch it would be the 12 in the middle. Hopefully that all makes sense.
Another method and one that makes more appeal, for the time starved punter, because it cuts the shortlist down even further is the one, I’m going to outline.
Three from the top and three from the bottom method
You simply look at the top three weighted in the handicap and the bottom three weighted. I have made three the cut-off point, but you could easily go for top four & bottom four.
What you now have is six or eight horses to look at in depth.
Personally, I think this approach is better than splitting the field into thirds and today’s handicaps lend themselves to it. The top weight carries 2lb more than they once did and the weight range in today’s handicaps generally tighter than it used to be.
The logic behind using the top 3 or 4 weighted horses is they have been likely performing well in similar handicaps or they have been running in better races and against better horses and are dropping down to a lower class race. Which in theory can use their higher ability to advantage.
As for the bottom three weighted horses. Normally are at the bottom for a reason. However, there are times when a bottom weight has dropped down to mark it can win off or have suddenly found their form having won or finished second last time out. These are the one to be interested in. Others to note are bottom weights to look out for are improving horses who are now stepping up in class.
It’s the higher weighted horses that I’m mostly concentrating on, but the bottom three of four’s form does to be checked.
That’s the easy part done. The harder part of course is the form analysis you must undertake to decide what your final selections/bets are, if you have found any of course. I don’t have the time to go into that process here, but I may follow it up in future Thursday columns.
Example: Cesarewitch Handicap
To be fair this isn’t the best example to use because we haven’t got the final declarations in for Saturday’s races.
However, at the time of writing the top three weighted horses in the Cesarewitch are Tashkhan, Wordsworth & Jackfinbar. If you’re going top four weighted, you would add Ocean Wind & Not So Sleepy.
When it comes to the bottom three weighted this is where it becomes tricky. Presently there are six horses who won’t get into the race. So, for now I’m going with the bottom three of the first 34 and they are Pons Aelius, Lady Percival, Robert Johnson & Yorkindness.
Once again should you decide that three isn’t enough and you want to look at the four lowest weighted horses. So, you would add Geremia, Land Of Winter & Sheishybrid to the shortlist.
Depending how many you go for you could have 7 to 12 qualifiers to look at in further detail.
The final qualifiers for Saturday’s race could well change due to non-runners so I wouldn’t be looking at the race in any detail until final declaration are known on Thursday lunchtime.
At this point if you have access to the Racing Post Betting Forecast or another forecast that you trust. You could strike out any horse that’s not in the first six lines in that forecast. In effect reducing the six down to even fewer contenders worthy of further form study.
Now the winner of this year’s Cesarewitch might not be found among the final qualifiers but plenty of other handicap winners will be and not just on the flat.
Thursday Preview
You can tell winter isn’t to far away. Temperatures are supposedly set to plummet this weekend and Exeter’s first jumps fixture of the season takes place this afternoon. The going at Exeter was on Thursday afternoon was good to firm but there’s been rain, and some more is forecast. Quick ground at the Devon track means the field sizes are small with 56 runners declared for the seven races.
There’s a competitive albeit moderate card at the Curragh. I don’t really fancy much today and haven’t looked at today’s cards in much detail.
Curragh
One of a modest interest that I did note was Art Of Unity in the 5f handicap (5:15) that concludes the Curragh card. The 8-year-old is down to winnable mark as he showed last time when a length 3rd of 20 to Rathbranchurch at Navan 8 days ago. The winner reopposes on 5lb worse terms, and I would be hopeful that Art Of Unity can finish in front of him on this occasion.
Pretty Boy Floyd is the most consistent of sprint handicappers these days, but he did best of those who raced far side when 6 ¾ length 4th of 16 here (6f) 16 days ago. He’s on a good mark but stall 1 must be a concern and I prefer Art Of Unity’s stall in 13.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John