Hi all,
After yesterday’s Five to Follow for the new Flat season, today’s main piece focuses on my preview of the William Hill Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.
William Hill Lincoln Handicap
The William Hill Lincoln Handicap is the traditional curtain-raiser for the British Flat season, run over 1 mile at Doncaster. It’s a fiercely competitive heritage handicap open to four-year-olds and up, often attracting a mix of improving younger horses and seasoned handicappers.
Recent Winners
Last year’s race was won by Mr Professor, trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis and ridden by jockey David Egan. Starting at odds of 33/1, Mr Professor came from midfield to secure victory.
2023: Migration (David Menuisier) – Came from the rear to win in testing conditions.
2022: Johan (Mick Channon) – Was prominently ridden by Silvestre De Sousa to victory.
2021: Haqeeqy (John & Thady Gosden) – Lightly raced and well-handicapped albeit unproven over a mile.
History & Significance
First run in 1853, originally held at Lincoln before moving to Doncaster in 1965.
Part of the Spring Double alongside the Grand National. Historically, punters would try to land both bets for a big payout.
Previous winners have gone on to run in Group races or land more big handicaps later in the season.
Key Trends & Stats – Finding the 2025 Lincoln Winner
Here are some key trends that could help identify this year’s Lincoln winner:
Age: Migration won as a 7-year-old in 2023, but five of the last 10 winners were four and three more were five.
Wins at the Distance: Eight of the last 10 winners had previously won over a mile.
Highest Class Win: Eight of the last 10 winners had won at Class 2 level or higher.
Handicap Experience: Eight of the last 10 winners had run 12 times or fewer in handicaps.
Official Rating: Eight of the last 10 winners were rated 99-102. Just 2 winners from 124 runners -71, 25 places were outside that band. That trend seemed strong until the last two running’s, where winners came from outside that bracket.
Weight: Only one winner from 42 runners carried 9-5 or more in the last decade. Migration defied 9-9 in 2023 but that has been the exception.
Recent Runs: Only two of the last 10 winners had run within 134 days, and both had prep runs at Meydan.
Draw: Winners have emerged from all parts of the track, but ground conditions play a role:
Soft/Heavy Ground: Only one winner from 46 runners was drawn higher than stall 12.
Good/Good to Soft Ground: Only one winner from 42 runners had a single-digit draw.
Lincoln 2025: Leading Contenders and Key Fancies
With a maximum field of 22, plenty of the 69 entries will end up in the consolation Spring Mile Handicap (1:50).
Two key ante-post fancies, Qirat and Harper’s Ferry, weren’t left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. Their absence means Thunder Run (5/1) is now the sponsors favourite.
Thunder Run, trained by Karl Burke, is capable of better as a 4-year-old. Burke could also saddle Native Warrior (6/1), owned by Wathnan Racing, who have Midnight Gun (10/1) among the entries. James Doyle is already booked for Midnight Gun, which is a positive.
I like Midnight Gun, and Magnum Opus (20/1), who has race fitness after spending the winter in Dubai. Connections will be hoping the drying trends continues for the 4-year-old. There could be 5mm of rain on Friday and for now I think Midnight Gun should get his optimum underfoot conditions.
Last year’s winner, Mr Professor (33/1), bids to follow up off 4lb higher, while runner-up Lattam (10/1) aims to go one place better. The last horse to win back-to-back Lincolns was Babur (1957 & 1958). If the ground turns soft, both Mr Professor and Lattam come firmly into the picture. Given how strongly he travelled last year, I don’t think an extra 4lb would have stopped Mr Professor from winning. There’s also been money for Lattam who was a bit unlucky in the run 12 months ago.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets!
John