Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to Saturday’s Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury. Plus, I’ve had a look at Thursday’s big handicap chase at Ludlow.
Before I delve into previewing the Greatwood Gold Cup, there's something I've been meaning to discuss but haven't had the chance to do so yet.
Golden Rules for the Newcomer
What I’m writing below probably isn’t going to be relevant to most of you. But if you’re a visiting the column for the first time and happen to be a novice punter then maybe you will find it of use.
I’ve been asked in the past by newcomers to the sport: How do I start betting on horses?
Well, here are four rules I learned as an 18-year-old:
- Never bet outside first three in betting on day of race.
- Only bet in races where the winner gets £10,000 (adjusted for inflation)
- Make sure the horse has FORM at the track.
- Make sure the horse has won before.
While I've personally broken these rules over 40 years of betting, they're meant for beginners to simplify the process. With experience, you can deviate from them. Still, for newcomers to the “Sport of Kings”, I recommend following these rules as they limit the number of races you need to consider.
I often find myself breaking Rule 1 regularly, though with experience, that’s fine and it’s for newcomers. Rule 2, on the other hand, is the one I consistently strive to adhere to. Interestingly, I tend to disregard Rules 3 and 4 frequently. I had intended to propose avoiding maidens was wise, but Mr. Bramley's victory at Bangor yesterday rendered that a moot point.
Overall, these rules have stood the test of time and can be helpful, not just for newcomers but more seasoned punters who are going through a rough patch and need to go back to basics.
And remember, if you're not genuinely interested in the sport, it's best to avoid betting on it altogether. When you like the sport, you’ll have a more enjoyable and informed betting experience.
Weekend Weather & Going Watch
Here's the weather and going watch for the three courses live on ITV this Saturday:
- Newbury: According to the BHA website, the ground was reported as soft, with a potential for up to 16mm of rain from Wednesday to Saturday. If the forecast rain arrives the ground is likely to remain soft. Given his misjudgment on Betfair Hurdle Day, there's uncertainty whether the Newbury Clerk of the Course will accurately assess the ground this time.
- Kelso: The current going is good to soft at Kelso. The course could experience up to 10mm of rainfall between Wednesday and Friday, but Saturday is expected to be mainly dry. Therefore, I'll be assuming that the prevailing ground condition on race day will still be good to soft.
- Doncaster: Town Moor is currently reported as good to soft, with soft patches. It has been a predominantly dry week at Doncaster, although there's a possibility of receiving around 12mm from now until the start of racing on Saturday.
Newbury: BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
The BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup is run over 2m 4f and has £100,000 guaranteed prize money.
Here are some trends that may help you find the winner of the Greatwood Gold Cup. These trends contain – 14 winners from 159 runners, 41 placed.
Highest Class Run: Grade 1 – 10 winners from 67 runners +33.5, 18 placed.
Wins at the Distance: 1 – 8 winners from 36 runners +48.5, 14 placed.
Runs at the Track: 1 – 7 winners from 43 runners +34, 16 placed.
It’s a race that Paul Nicholls used to farm – 8 winners from 28 runners +47.83, 11 placed. His last five runners in the race have been beaten and you must go back to 2019 for the last time he saddled the winner. Venetia Williams is only 1 winner from 12 runners, 6 placed in the race since 2008 but four of her last five runners have finished runner-up.
Finally, here are a few negative trends.
Last Time Out Winners – 1 winner from 32 runners, 5 placed.
Days Since Last Run: 45+ days – 2 winners from 57 runners, 11 placed.
Age: 9-year-old’s – 0 winners from 34 runners, 6 placed.
Odds SP: 20/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 28 runners, 5 placed.
Out of interest, eleven of the last 14 winners of the race had the following traits. There were no qualifiers last year.
I won't be looking at the race in Saturday's column but I'll let you know if there are any qualifiers.
Contenders:
At Monday's final confirmation stage, eighteen remained in the race. Throughout the week, there has been noticeable support for Grandeur D'Ame, trained by Alan King. Additionally, Kandoo Kid from Paul Nicholls' yard and Demnat trained by Venetia Williams have attracted support in the ante-post market. Given those trainers have good records in the race you must respect the claims of both horses.
The potential participation of Highstakesplayer adds intrigue to the event. He made 3-3 over fences when winning Kempton last month. Granted he’s to win left handed over fences but he has over hurdles so he should be fine going this way around. He only got a 3lb increase for his latest win and remains open to further improvement.
Last year’s winner The Big Bite has struggled on three subsequent starts. However, he now finds himself 1lb lower compared to twelve months ago. As an 11-year-old, he may be susceptible to more progress rivals, but on his day, he could still contend for the places.
Thursday Preview
Ludlow hosts one of its most valuable races of its season in the Forbra Gold Cup (4:15). It’s a 3m handicap chase which has attracted seven runners, probably six as Duke Of Deception ran at Bangor yesterday.
Ludlow
4:15 – Arizona Cardinal bounced backto winning ways at Leicester (2m 6 ½ f) 37 days ago. Goes on soft ground, has won at 3m and was nicely on top last time so a 5lb rise isn’t harsh. He hasn’t been the most consistent of horses but he’s the one to beat and the yard is in red hot form 5 winners from 7 runners in the past 14 days.
Midnight Mary is a consistent chasing mare albeit she was a likely flattered by her 10 length 3rd of 7 to Brides Hill in a Huntingdon Listed Chase (2m 4f) 35 days ago. If she can reproduce that form though she’s got big chance off her present mark back at 3m.
You must go back to December 2020 for Special Acceptance last success. That win came in the first time cheekpieces, and the first time blinkers are applied here. He wasn’t disgraced when a 11 ¾ length 4th of 11 to Dom of Mary in the Sussex National at Plumpton last time and has chance.
Verdict: At the prices I can let Arizona Cardinal win. Midnight Mary won’t be far away, and this sharp track will suit. Special Acceptance is hardly a serial winner but if the change in headgear works he can surprise at double figure odds.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John