Hi all,
Originally, I was going to recap Saturday’s action, but with the Lexus Melbourne Cup on Tuesday morning, there’s no way I can overlook this legendary race. Known as the “race that stops the nation,” it’s one of the world’s top flat handicaps, and it’s always an intriguing event. You can read my thoughts on the race inside today's main piece.
There's been some lead-up drama this year, especially around St Leger winner Jan Brueghel missing out. Though this year’s line-up may lack some star quality, it’s shaping up as a fascinating race with lots of form lines to dissect. For a deep dive, you can catch the preview by the Wolfden team—they offer insights far surpassing what we ever see on this side of the world.
Lexus Melbourne Cup Preview:
Top Contenders
Onesmoothoperator
Winner of the Geelong Cup, Onesmoothoperator has proven his stamina over 2m, notably in the Northumberland Plate. If he can repeat his last race performance, he has a strong chance. Currently around 7/1, but if he drifts to 10/1, I’d find him a very tempting bet.
Willie Mullins Pair: Vauban & Absurde
After last year’s disappointing showing, Vauban is still respected. Stablemate Absurde, who finished 7th last time, may be worth watching too—especially if jockey Kerrin McEvoy times his run late from a favourable draw in stall 7.
Buckeroo
The class horse in the lineup, Buckeroo’s big question is whether he’ll stay the full 2m, especially given his tough draw in stall 21.
Sea King
Coming off a decisive Bendigo Cup win, Sea King has the weight advantage, but jockey Hollie Doyle will need to work her magic from stall 1. A contender but at around 9/1 looks bit short in my eyes.
Others to Watch:
Zardozi
This filly has a proper old school Melbourne Cup prep under her belt, racing just three days ago and coming off a strong finish in a Group 1 here over 1m. Untried over 2m but has run well off a short turnaround before—she’s one to watch if she handles quick ground.
Interpretation
Runner-up to Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup, Interpretation ran a respectable 6th in last year’s Cup. While not the most consistent, he has place potential.
Warp Speed
Coming from Japan, Warp Speed has high class form over staying distances, including a solid 5th in the Grade 1 Tenno Sho. He didn’t like the softer ground at Caulfield last time but he’s a contender on quick ground.
The Map
At long odds, The Map could surprise. The mare has won over 1m 6f twice at Flemington and will appreciate the ground. This has been the plan all season and she’s one who could run into the Melbourne Cup places at big odds.
You can get my Melbourne Cup selections and for the rest of the month here.
Monday’s Racing
It’s a solid day for a Monday card at Kempton, featuring the London Middle Distance Series (Final) Handicap (2:57), which offers a generous £36,078 to the winner. The undercard includes the Listed Floodlit Stakes (2:20)—though it won’t actually be run under the floodlights. Plumpton’s jumps card also includes a couple of fair handicaps with decent prize money.
Kempton
2:57 – London Middle Distance Series (Final) Handicap – 1m 3f
With strong prize money on offer, the race has attracted a maximum field of 14 runners.
Daniel and Claire Kubler have a strong chance with Siempre Arturo, a recent C&D winner, and Andaleep, last year’s runner-up.
God Of Fire: Steadily progressive this season, he won over C&D three starts back and has improved on two subsequent starts back on turf. With James Doyle booked, he’ll be well fancied for a big effort.
Magico improved to win a series qualifier over C&D in August and ran just as well when a close-up third in a better race at Doncaster. He’s 2-2 on the all-weather and if you forgive a poor run on soft ground at York last time, he should be competitive albeit drawn out widest in stall 14.
True Courage: Although possibly suited to furlong further, this dual course winner’s form on synthetic surfaces makes him one you can’t totally dismiss.
I wouldn’t normally be looking for a punt on a Monday, but I have a couple of fancies which will be with Victor Value subscribers on Monday morning.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of Saturday’s action.
Good luck with your Monday bets!
John