Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find my thoughts on a good Friday of racing at Meydan,
Storm Eowyn is here, bringing with it very strong winds. Hopefully, the winds will be gone by Saturday and won’t disrupt ITV Racing action at Cheltenham where it's Trial’s Day and Doncaster.
Constitution Hill won’t face Lossiemouth in Saturdays in Saturday’s Unibet Hurdle on Trial’s Day. Sadly, the Willie Mullins trained mare wasn’t declared leaving Constitution Hill to face four rivals. He must give nearest market rival Brentford Hope 6lb but given he’s rated 29lb superior this will be a procession. I know he’s got 8 hurdles to jumps but he should be 1/10. Anything less and it would be a case of buying money for some people. It’s not a race I will be bothering with though.
Spot-On Trends Pay Dividends in Thyestes
Yesterday, in my Thyestes Handicap Chase preview, I highlighted nine horses that matched the key trends for the race. It’s satisfying to see that the first three home all came from the trends shortlist.
In my Victor Value verdict, I wrote:
“Nick Rockett is a strong favourite and whilst not an exciting price, I wouldn’t put anyone off. The more testing the ground, the more I like the chances of Favori De Champdou. I’m chancing a couple each way at big odds in Velvet Elvis and My Immortal.”
While I didn’t land on the winner, the brave runner-up Velvet Elvis (25/1) delivered for me, along with Rocky’s Diamond in the Galmoy Hurdle (advised at 7/1). It made for another profitable day for my subscribers.
Friday Racing
Friday’s racing is fairly low-key. Sandown's Grand Military Gold Cup, a contest for military amateur riders, is the standout. However, the overall quality of racing across Britain and Ireland is disappointing for the start of the weekend.
For top-class action on Friday, Dubai is the place to be. Meydan hosts an eight-race card, featuring multiple Group races, including a pair of Group 1s. Four of the races are on turf which is good for me as I don’t particularly like the dirt surface.
No apologies from me for skipping the domestic action today and instead focusing on Meydan for the preview.
Meydan Preview
5:00 – Group 1 Jebel Hatta – 1m 1f
The star of the Meydan card is undoubtedly Romantic Warrior, the multiple Group 1-winning Hong Kong Champion. He faces seven rivals in the Jebel Hatta and looks a class apart. His main challenger is last year’s winner, the Charlie Appleby-trained Measured Time, but Romantic Warrior is a much tougher opponent than he faced 12 months ago. With William Hill offering 8/15 at the time of writing, the odds look generous—I’d have him closer to 1/3.
2:40 – Al Fahidi Fort Presented By Longines (Group 2) – 7f
William Buick has sided with Native Approach, who won a Listed race over this C&D last month. His choice deserves respect, but stablemate Mysterious Night appeals more. The colt won this race last year and has proven class. The only concern is his 230-day absence, as he came into last year’s race fitter after a couple of prep runs.
3:50 – Blue Point Sprint Presented By Longines (Group 2) – 5f
Cover Up followed up his Doncaster handicap win in October with a Listed success over C&D last month. If he can step forward again, he’ll be tough to beat.
Ponntos, a speedy front-runner, wasn’t quick away last time due to a poor start behind Cover Up. However, he was runner-up in this race last year and could reverse the form if sharper out of the gates.
The wildcard is Jakajaro, bought for 200,000 gns by Robert Cowell. His best runs in Ireland came over 5f, and a reproduction of his close 4th in a Curragh Group 2 last summer would make him a player.
6:10 – Al Khail Trophy Presented By Longines (Group 3) – 1m 6f
It’s not the best race on the card, but it’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive.
King Of Conquest wasn’t at his peak when finishing a neck second to Epic Poet over C&D three weeks ago. That was his first run since August, so he’s expected to be sharper now. Epic Poet, who got first run last time, may find it tougher to confirm placings with King Of Conquest today.
Keffaaf finished just a head behind in third behind Epic Poet. He had race fitness on his side last time but had a wider trip than the other pair. With James MacDonald now in the saddle, he could be the value play if continuing to progress over this trip.
Caius Chorister, a strong fourth behind Kyprios in the London Distance Cup on Champions Day, makes her Meydan debut. She might prefer some cut in the ground, but her seasonal debut form last year suggests she can go well fresh.
Trafalgar Square, a Listed winner in France, proved his stamina when a 2 length second in a Group 2 (1m 7f) at Longchamp last October. He’s now with Bhupat Seemar and is another to respect if ready to roll first time out.
Good luck with your Friday bets,
John