Monday Racing Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my Monday racing preview.

Before I get into Monday’s racing preview let’s look back at Saturday’s racing at Haydock and Beverley.

I hope you're enjoying the quiet period before Royal Ascot.

Saturday might not have featured the highest quality racing, but the action at Haydock was certainly competitive. The robust fields provided plenty of excitement.

Saturday Review

I’ll begin my weekend review at Haydock.

Two favourites for the ITV races, Maghlaak and Noble Dynasty, were withdrawn on Friday evening due to the quick ground. Then, the track received 7mm of rain on Friday night, far more than the 1mm forecasted. That changed the going from good to firm to good for Saturday’s card.

There were 27 non-runners on Haydock’s Friday evening card. As punters, we often complain when racecourses water the track, and then when they don’t, we get what happened on Friday a farce of a meeting. As I mentioned in this column a few weeks ago, you can see why they water: trainers won’t run their horses on firm ground. Clerks of the Course have become easy targets for criticism, but the real issue lies with the trainers.

John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3)

Normally, 7f Group races like the John Of Gaunt Stakes have small fields of five or six runners. However, this year’s race saw 11 horses go to post after Noble Dynasty was a non-runner. It's rare to see a Group race with odds of 11/2 for the field, as was the case on Saturday morning.

Tiber Flow, a faller at York last time, bounced back to winning ways. Showing no ill effects from his York mishap, he had to be tough and brave to come through horses to win. Seven furlongs seems to be his optimal trip, and he can quicken off a strong pace.

Sirona, like the winner, came off the strong pace to snatch second from the more forwardly ridden Pogo.

Quinault (6th) helped set a strong gallop, and recent York all-the-way winner Port Lynas (4th) couldn’t dominate. To their credit, both horses managed to finish as close to the winner as they did.

Flight Plan (5th) ran a much better race on his seasonal return and was trying to give Tiber Flow 5lb. They come out as similar horses at the weights. His best run last season came when making all to win a Group 2 at Leopardstown over a mile.

Witch Hunter (9th) was sent off as the 7/2 favourite but was a big disappointment. A strongly run race should have suited his hold-up style. However, he was ridden a bit more forwardly than usual. He would surely have done better if he had been ridden from the rear like the winner and runner-up.

Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes (Group 3)

The other Group 3 on the Haydock card was the Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes. On paper, it looked like a competitive renewal, with the bookies going 4/1 the field.

Queen Of The Pride, a winner of a Leicester maiden last September, had improved on her seasonal return when runner-up in a Listed race at Goodwood and took another leap forward with her success here. Better ground and a soundly run race suited her well, and she is an improving 4-year-old who could become a Group 1 filly against her own sex. The Lancashire Oaks over C&D would be a logical next step after this win.

Runner-up Lady Boba posted a career-best performance, getting within a short head of the winner. She might well have won if she had gotten a better run 2f out. She’s another who could come back for next month’s Lancashire Oaks.

Mistrel Star (3rd) had an even worse run in the closing stages than the runner-up, boxed in on the inner. Even with a clear passage, she wouldn't have won, but she shaped with promise.

Sea Theme looked like she might tighten up a bit for her seasonal return. Not as well positioned as Queen Of The Pride, she did well to finish within 2 ½ lengths of the winner. She remains capable of better as a 4-year-old and is another Lancashire Oaks possibility.

Achilles Stakes (Listed Race)

Live In The Dream had his preferred ground in the Listed Achilles Stakes but didn't get his usual fast start and was pressured for the lead by Democracy Dilemma. A headwind also hampered his chance, and he was beaten at halfway. This run can be disregarded, and with a fast start and a tailwind, he’ll be tough to beat over a sharp 5f.

A fast gallop set the race up for Believing, who had shown her ability with a close third in the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup here (6f) last September. She sat behind the leaders and, when asked for her effort, went clear to register an easy win. The King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot is next for the filly, and she might even go for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes on the Saturday given she's equally effective at 6f as 5f.

The leaders went off too quickly, allowing Commanche Falls to run on into second. Pink Crystal, back from a 203-day layoff, was doing her best work at the finish in fourth. She’s better over an extra furlong and can win again this season.

Beverley Review

Hilary Needler Trophy

The highlights of Beverley’s ITV card were two juvenile races. As I mentioned in Wednesday’s column, I typically avoid juvenile races until Royal Ascot. The Hilary Needler Trophy exemplified why. The unraced Brian Ellison-trained Perfect Part (125/1) came from the rear to collar the 7/2 favourite Maw Lam close to the line. While I'm unsure about the quality of this form, the time was quicker than the 2-year-old race for colts and geldings. Aviation Time got no run 2f out and looked unlucky finishing third. All three fillies look worth their place in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.

bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy

The bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy was won by the unraced colt Shareholder, who was sent off as the 6/4 favourite. Wathnan Racing purchased Shareholder for €460,000 at the Arqana breeze-ups in May before sending him to Karl Burke. He did plenty wrong in victory—fluffing the start, running green—but showed a good attitude to hold off recent C&D winner Moving Force in a close finish. He will have learned a lot from this run and could follow in the footsteps of Prince Of Lir, who won the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot after winning here on racecourse debut in 2016.

The bookies were divided on Shareholder's win. Coral offered 10/1 for his Norfolk Stakes chances, while Paddy Power are more optimistic at 4/1.

Punting Review:

I went very close to landing a 20/1 winner for Victor Value subscribers on Saturday.  Park Street with a better run would have prevailed at Beverley. Fortunately, I provided those same subscribers with two nice- priced winners on Sunday. I’m heading towards Royal Ascot in good form and if you want my Royal Ascot preview and selections you can get them here. Use coupon code VICTOR30 at checkout and you’ll get a fantastic 30% off.

Now on to Monday’s racing preview.

Monday Racing Preview

Monday's top races include Windsor's Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap (7:40) and the Tote Connacht National Handicap Chase (5:48) at Roscommon. Here’s my Monday racing preview.

Windsor

Source: Racing Post.

7:40 – Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap – 6f

Rocking Ends: Claimed a fourth career win with a stable debut victory over C&D three weeks ago. He finished with more in hand than the ½ length margin suggests, so a 2lb rise looks manageable.

Mountain Peak: Not disgraced on his seasonal return at Epsom in April. He’s well treated on his back form and needs to be respected. Needs good or quicker ground.

Navello: Well below par when last of five over C&D 16 days ago, but previously ran a strong race when 2nd of 14 at Newmarket. If you forgive his last effort, he’s a strong contender.

Good Earth: Yet to hit form in three starts this season but there was some encouragement to be taken from his 3 ¾ length 11th of 17 to Clarendon House in a better race at York last time. Now 4lb below his last winning mark, so can't be totally dismissed.

Roscommon

5:48 – Tote Connacht National Handicap Chase – 3m 1f

Gold Bullion: One of the least exposed among the sixteen runners over fences. He looked suited to three miles when a 13-length 3rd of 12 to Minella Crooner in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival last time. This race is easier, and the better ground could suit the 8-year-old.

Goodnightngodbless: Returned to winning ways against seven rivals at Down Royal last month. A 5lb rise makes life tougher for the mare, but I can see her doing well once more.

Monday Selection:

In the Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap I think likely favourite Rocking Ends has a great chance despite a class rise. Good Earth has each way claims at the 25/1 available with Paddy Power & Befair Sportsbook.

Windsor

7:40 – Good Earth – 25/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (each way).

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John