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More Cheltenham Thoughts & Exeter tip

Good morning all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m very much projecting forward. I have some eyecatcher’s with the Spring Festival’s in mind and a selection for Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.  Plus, I look at two races from day two of the Cheltenham Festival and I have a selection from this afternoon’s meeting at Exeter.

Tracker Tuesday

I mentioned yesterday that I thought the Greatwood Gold Cup form looks solid. The best horse The Big Bite didn’t win. He’s got plenty of talent and although he’s on a winnable mark he’s not one you would want to take a short price on after Saturday’s antics

The winner Umbrigado is an improving novice chaser. He could go to Cheltenham and the Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase under a penalty and is one to keep onside going forward.

However, it’s the fourth home that caught my eye the most.

Senior Citizen – Alan King

He was beaten less than four lengths into 4th and was returning from a 91-day break.  The trainer is said to be aiming the 8-year-old at the Topham Chase at the Grand National meeting. He’s already had experience of the National fences after an excellent effort when 7th of 18 in the Grand Sefton in December. He travelled through the Grand Sefton like he remains a well handicapped horse, as he did on Saturday at Newbury. He should go well at Aintree provided the ground isn’t too soft.  

Natural History – Gary Moore

Natural History, very useful on the flat when trained by Andrew Balding with an Official Rating of 101. He finished runner-up on his first two starts over hurdles in maiden/novice company but made no mistake when making all on his handicap debut at Plumpton last Monday. It was quick ground at Plumpton but his best form on the flat came on soft/heavy so he seems ground versatile.

After his Plumpton success the trainer indicated that Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown was on the 5-year-old’s agenda. Trainer Gary Moore likes to have runners in the race, since 2011 he’s had 8 runners with 3 placing. If Natural History does run on Saturday, he looks a well handicapped horse, even under a 7lb penalty . The bookies are taking no chances and he’s a best priced 3/1 for the race.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Sandown

Imperial Cup Selection – Natural History – 3/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Up to Kelso

The first two home in the Morebattle Handicap Hurdle are worth noting at Cheltenham. As I said yesterday The Shunter has the 100k bonus very much in his sights. Whichever of the races he goes for at the Festival he has to be high on your shortlist.

The runner-up Night Edition, albeit very much second best,  bounced back from a couple of low key runs this season. The 5-year-old who finished runner-up in last year’s Boodles Juvenile Hurdle at Festival put in a career best effort on RPR’s on Saturday.

He’s got two entries at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle. A tilt at the latter over an extended 2m 4f could be interesting. He’s a best priced 25/1 for the Martin Pipe and given his previous festival form is worth having onside.

Cheltenham Festival Countdown – Day 2

The feature races on day two are the three Grade 1 races: Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ballymore Novices Hurdle, Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and the Weatherbys Champion Bumper.

The races that come under today's microscope are the first and last races on the card.  

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

The Ballymore is a good race for trending.

All the last ten winners of the race shared the following criteria:

Age: 5yo or 6yo (nine were aged six);

Odds SP: 14/1 & under;

Last Time Out Placing: 1st or 2nd;

And all ten had also won a race over at least 2m 3 ½ f and had an adjusted RPR of 152+.

The front three in the ante post betting Gaillard Du Mesnil, Bravemansgame & Bob Olinger meet the key trends. I want to take on the first named here. That leaves Bravemansgame and Bob Olinger. The former looks to have a big future as a staying chaser. He won the Challow Hurdle at Newbury on his last start and the winners of the race don’t have a good record here.

I prefer the claims of Bob Olinger. The 6-year-old won a 2m 4f Grade 1 at Naas on his last start. I think Bob Olinger is the best novice hurdler either side of the Irish Sea and although this looks his ideal festival target, I think he would have the speed and class to be competitive in the Supreme. I haven’t backed him ante post but he’s my idea of the Wednesday banker.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

Looking at the ten-year race trends:

All the last ten winners were aged five or six and had won their last race.  Those not fulfilling those two trends are 0 winners from 87 runners 7 placed.

Digging a bit deeper into the trends.

Eight of the ten winners had been off the track between 31 to 75 days.

Five of the winners were returned at odds between 14/1 to 25/1.

Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of the Champion Bumper four times in the past ten years. And he has a strong hand in this year’s race with the front two in the market in Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard, formerly with Gordon Elliott.

Interestingly all four of the Mullins winners were returned between 11/1 to 25/1 – 4 winners from 13 runners +68 8 placed (+91.80 each way).  He’s 0 winners from 21 runners 4 placed with horses outside that price bracket.

Whilst I wouldn’t put you off the market leaders, their chances on form are clear for all to see. However, an each-way punt on one of the Mullins bigger priced runners could pay dividends, as it has done in the past.

He has a couple in the right price range in the mare Grangee (25/1 with William Hill) and last time out Thurles winner Cool Jet (33/1 Gen). The latter’s sire is 4 winners from 20 runners +9.25 with his runners in bumpers this season.

More Cheltenham previews tomorrow and on Thursday I will be putting up my Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15.

Tuesday racing

The racing at Exeter this afternoon is moderate but there are some decent field sizes and I have a couple that interest me.

Exeter

1:00 – Tudors Treasure won this race 12 months ago off 1lb lower and wasn’t disgraced when 3rd of 14 over C&D on heavy in December. He’s now 1113 over C&D and today’s better ground should suit him more. Has been off the track for 82-days but if fully tuned up looks to have a good chance of back to back wins in the race.

2:40 – Lord Napier finished a well beaten 5th of 10 in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December on his last start. He didn’t seem to get home over the extended 3m 1f at Haydock but the going was heavy that day and he had helped to set a strong pace. A very useful handicap hurdler, the 8-year-old has only had four starts over fences and is surely capable of better than he’s been able to show so far.

Tuesday selection:

Exeter

1:00 – Tudors Treasure – 7/1 @ Bet365 (EW).

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Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John

John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk

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