Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, you’ll find a horse from Sunday’s Munster National that can be competitive in staying handicap chases this winter.
Revamping the End of the Season
You’d think the 2024 British Flat season ended at Ascot on Saturday, given the reaction from much of the racing media. But there are still over two weeks left, including the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster this weekend. It’s a sign of Doncaster’s dwindling relevance that after Champions Day, the flat season just limps towards its conclusion in November, with hardly anyone paying attention.
It’s time for the BHA to give the season a proper send-off, ending with a bang at the Futurity meeting instead of dragging it out into November. Pair the Group 1 with an October Handicap to replace the November Handicap – would anyone really miss it?
The November Handicap just feels outdated, and the flat season’s slow fade-out serves no one. And as for the late-season 2-year-old maidens at Newmarket, they’ve lost their importance now that all-weather racing continues through the winter.
Barely had the dust settled on Champions Day when the Racing Post launched their BIG JUMP OFF for the 2024/25 jumps season. If you’re interested, there’s a two-hour video available here. I watched it on Sunday evening, and It’s well worth a watch. It certainly got me excited for the winter jumps campaign, especially with Cheltenham's Showtime meeting starting on Friday and the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on Sunday.
As for my autumn flat season betting, it isn’t exactly ending on a high note, but fortunately, my lay bets are keeping the betting bank intact.
Speaking of lay betting, I’m about to move to my NH lay qualifiers. If you’re looking to make some consistent profits over the winter, you can find them here.
I’ll still have a few back bets on the flat between now and November. However, I’ve now firmly switched to jumps mode.for the next five months.
Notebook Time
We know a horse’s most recent run is often the best indicator of future performance. However, there are times when you should forgive a horse for one poor run. Horses aren’t machines—they can make mistakes, react to unknown factors, and have off days.
I often talk about forgiving a poor run, and Anmaat’s win in Saturday’s Champion Stakes is a prime example. He had disappointed when finishing fifth in the Prix Dollar at Longchamp, but there were mitigating circumstances. He wasn’t given the best ride in a slowly run race, which didn’t suit him. With a better setup at Ascot, he delivered the performance he was capable of.
That said, two poor runs are harder to overlook, and this winter, I won’t be giving horses a third chance. But one bad run? It can be forgiven, especially if you can find reasons for it.
Speaking of bouncing back, Limerick trainer Eric McNamara claimed his second Munster National victory on Sunday, 25 years after his first, with Real Steel. The 11-year-old led from the front under Danny Mullins, jumping brilliantly throughout. When a horse gets an uncontested lead on good ground, they’re hard to reel in, and that’s exactly what happened. Connections trained Real Steel for this one race—the Munster National—and everything aligned perfectly. He won’t find such ideal conditions next time, but they’ve already achieved their goal.
Tracker Horse
Panda Boy – Martin Brassil
Panda Boy, down the field in the Grand National when last seen, made a promising return from a six-month break in the Munster National, finishing seventh. Outpaced three out, he plugged on but wasn’t given a hard race. This was a solid seasonal debut, with bigger prizes likely ahead. He was second in last year’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown and could return there. He needs a strong stamina test, and when he gets it, he’s well handicapped to be competitive in staying chases.
There wasn’t much top-class NH action for the tracker last week but expect things to really pick up this weekend.
Tuesday Racing
The Group 3 Staffordstown Stud Stakes (1:30) at the Curragh is Tuesday's feature race. It has drawn a competitive field of 12 juvenile fillies and promises to be informative. Aidan O’Brien, who has won 6 of the last 10 running’s of the race, fields four contenders, including likely short-priced favourite Giselle, who won a maiden (7f) here 17 days ago. She looks an exciting prospect, although the ground will be softer than when she last won.
Curragh
3:10 – Alfalfa was first past the post in last year’s corresponding race but lost the race in the stewards' room. He bounced back to form when finishing 3rd of 11 at Naas, 9 days ago, just 1 ¼ lengths off the winner. He thrives on testing ground and looks poised to go close. I know it's risky picking in a big-field Irish handicap at the end of the season, but I think Alfalfa can win this.
In tomorow's column I'll be looking ahead to Saturday's Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster.
Good Luck with your Tuesday bets.
John